Connolly: 5 ways this team will be worse, 3 ways it will be better

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the Jays will be improved.

Probably. I have a feeling Vladdy breaks out and starts his run of being a thorn in our sides for years to come.

[TheOtherRipken]

6 hours ago, LTO's said:

Did the division really get that much better? Especially if the Sox trade Betts. I understand adding Cole is huge but I would be absolutely shocked if we went 2-17 against the Yankees again. I mean, it might be 4-15 but 2-17 is pretty improbable to happen back to back years.

I get worried when all arguments in favor of the O’s getting better are something between “law of averages” and “could we really be worse than last year?” 

[tntoriole]

On 1/31/2020 at 9:10 AM, Moose Milligan said:

Connolly over at @TonySoprano's all time favorite family friendly site (other than the OH) THE ATHLETIC wrote a good column about how the Orioles could be worse than last year, also how they could be better.  If dear Soprano were here, he'd tell you that it's worth a subscription.  

And it is.

It's paid content so can't copy and paste but I'll provide the highlights.

5 ways they'll be worse:

1. The rotation is a painful mystery

2. Losing Jonathan Villar will sting

3. The division got better

4. This is still an evaluation year

5. Summer trades are likely — if basically anyone plays well

3 ways they could be better:

1. Tighter defense improves overall play

2. The bullpen can’t be as bad as it was

3. Last year’s surprises take another leap

What say you?

I agree with the 5 ways they'll be worse, especially reasons 1, 2 and 3, not so much 4 and 5.  We'll be evaluating some good prospects like Hays and Mountcastle and lesser prospects like Kremer and Akin.  While Kremer and Akin are probably going to be members of a bad rotation, you never know...they could step up.  Trades...eh, by that point what's done is done and this team will be well on the way to cratering.

Surprisingly, I agree with his 3 ways the team will be better, more so than the ways we'll be worse.  That said, a better defense doesn't matter if the ball doesn't stay in the yard.  It remains to be seen if MLB uses the same balls that they did last year or reigns it in a little but the rotation looks like it'll be dreadful.  I can see us approaching the homer record we set last year.  

Either way, we'll be in the running for the #1 pick.  

Certainly the bullpen can be worse.  Last year’s surprises can regress too.  

Nope, it is hard to see much, if any improvement over last year’s team and plenty of scuffmarks. 

[Moose Milligan]

16 hours ago, LTO's said:

Probably. I have a feeling Vladdy breaks out and starts his run of being a thorn in our sides for years to come.

I agree.  And Bichette and Biggio can get better, too.  Bichette was already pretty damn good last year, Biggio has some pop.  Those two both had a higher OPS than Vlad, actually.

[Tony-OH]

On 1/31/2020 at 11:36 AM, TommyPickles said:

I mean, I think there's a pretty reasonable chance Givens improves from 2019.  

In 2019 he had:

6.39 ERA in May

and then 

3.68 ERA in June

2.79 ERA in July

2.70 ERA in August

(Couple rough outings in Sept, but I'm expecting he beats his overall 2019 ERA of 4.57 in 2020.)

I'd love to see Given's number on temperature above and 60 degree and below. From Florida and seems to really struggle in colder weather or maybe he's just a slow starter.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd love to see Given's number on temperature above and 60 degree and below. From Florida and seems to really struggle in colder weather or maybe he's just a slow starter.

Roch had a good stat this morning: 

1.93 ERA in the eighth inning and 6.69 ERA and nine home runs allowed in the ninth.

[Tony-OH]

30 minutes ago, interloper said:

Roch had a good stat this morning: 

1.93 ERA in the eighth inning and 6.69 ERA and nine home runs allowed in the ninth.

Givens has certainly performed better as a high leverage guy prior to the 9th inning than as a pure closer over his career. Brad Brach was similar during his heyday.