John Means 2020

[LA2]

4 hours ago, fitzi22 said:

John Means 2019 season was a tale of 2 halves( not unlike most of his teammates).  In the first half of the season when teams didn’t have much video on him he pitched to the tune of 2.50 ERA and 1.077 WHIP, good enough for an allstar selection.  But in the second half he pitched to a much more pedestrian 4.85 ERA and 1.203 WHIP which is average to below average for a starter.  So will the real John Means please stand up.  He needs to make adjustments as the league has adjusted to him. This will be the driving force this season as the team tries to evaluate who our guys really are. 

Means' season didn't split into two halves, but three one-thirds: he made the adjustments you demanded, although, of course, there'll be others in the future.

[AnythingO's]

Because as a fan, if you don’t enjoy the moments, there’s no point, and if the past is going to ruin your present, then I don’t understand what the point of any of it is. Brad van Pelt re: UMD pre-MSU game.

Probably best explanation of how I feel about the 2020 O's: IMO the pitchers we run out there will have more talent than last season, offense will improve somewhat and defense will be better. We won't lose 100, maybe 99 but not 100. Go Terps.

[fitzi22]

Yes his last 5 starts were better than better than the previous 2 months ( almost 1 1/2 runs better) but not nearly as good as his first half (more than a run worse).  I don’t believe Means is as good as his first half and I hope he isn’t as bad as he was in July and August.  He did use his slider more towards the end of the season but he relies heavily on his straight change.  Which all though good can be problematic as it only relies on change of speed (his is about 7 mph slower than his fastball) and not change of speed and movement like a split change or circle change which most pitchers use today.  Maybe the slider is the answer but he will probably not attain the kind of success he had in the first half last year with his deceptive change up that took the league by surprise.  Personally I think he is a good candidate to be traded this year if he can replicate his last 5 starts in the first half of this year.  His stock probably won’t be any higher and I think he will only be a 3/4 starter on the next good orioles team in a few years.

Edited February 16, 2020 by fitzi22

[thezeroes]

23 minutes ago, fitzi22 said:

 His stock probably won’t be any higher and I think he will only be a 3/4 starter on the next good orioles team in a few years.

The Orioles will need a reliable Number three and Number four starter when they are ready to contend or they will not contend at all.

[fitzi22]

I totally agree but they have a plethora of guys coming through now that can fill that role.  Kremer, Akin, Bauchman.....etc.  We won’t  need a 29-30 year old 3-4 pitcher then.  His real value is in adding talent in the A+ minors area that can come up with the real wave of talent (Rutschman, Henderson, Hall, Rodriguez)

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, fitzi22 said:

I totally agree but they have a plethora of guys coming through now that can fill that role.  Kremer, Akin, Bauchman.....etc.  We won’t  need a 29-30 year old 3-4 pitcher then.  His real value is in adding talent in the A+ minors area that can come up with the real wave of talent (Rutschman, Henderson, Hall, Rodriguez)

The only rule about pitching is you can never have enough of it.     Some of our highly touted prospects will fall by the wayside.    That’s just the way the game is.   In the meantime, it will be interesting to see what Means can become.    He’s already exceeded expectations.   

[thezeroes]

11 minutes ago, fitzi22 said:

I totally agree but they have a plethora of guys coming through now that can fill that role.  Kremer, Akin, Bauchman.....etc.  We won’t  need a 29-30 year old 3-4 pitcher then.  His real value is in adding talent in the A+ minors area that can come up with the real wave of talent (Rutschman, Henderson, Hall, Rodriguez)

So we need to forget about the past days of the CAVALRY IS COMING and trade possible assets.  I would keep him until at least his fifth season or until a year before free agency.  He will be affordable, possibly more dependable than your "plethora", and still maintain top end trade value.

[Just Regular]

The Yanks Opening Day will be a quick measuring stick.  My first wow at Means last year was when he broke Giancarlo with his changeup in long relief in April - I expect Stanton to be pretty locked in for the rematch.

Something I've heard more in the NFL, but that Means earned last year, is that the offseason is when major adjustments for in-season surprises happen.  I'd guess ~100% of the All-Time time spent thinking about John Means by the NYY/BOS/TB/TOR offense analysts is this offseason.

[fitzi22]

The orioles classically hold on to players too long and don’t get max value for them when they are able to.  Now that’s fine when you are competing for the division or a wild card but the O’s are still 3 years away and maybe more from being in that position.  Means is coming off an all star campaign and has 5 more years of cheap controllability which is valuable.  He might end up being an all star again but I think the cards are stacked against him. He is 26 and his best years are now.  We can keep him during his best years when the team is not competing and then attempt to trade him when he is more expensive and in his 30’s hoping for a decent return (which probably won’t happen) or we can trade him now when his price is at its highest and get players in the A+ minors range to build for a playoff run in the future.  Option #1 is what the orioles have classically done over the years that leads to mediocrity.  Option #2 is the way out if mediocrity which I would hope is everyone’s goal.  I vote for option #2 even though I would love to keep him just so we have someone respectable pitching for us.

[Just Regular]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-red-sox-prospect-jarren-duran-is-a-speedy-intense-anomaly/

David Laurila's Sunday notes has some detail on Means's last offseason.  Sounds like Holt may have been behind the St. Louis performance place idea and given him the "pronate" mechanic advice that help his CH take off.

[HowAboutThat]

On 2/16/2020 at 9:57 AM, fitzi22 said:

The orioles classically hold on to players too long and don’t get max value for them when they are able to.  Now that’s fine when you are competing for the division or a wild card but the O’s are still 3 years away and maybe more from being in that position.  Means is coming off an all star campaign and has 5 more years of cheap controllability which is valuable.  He might end up being an all star again but I think the cards are stacked against him. He is 26 and his best years are now.  We can keep him during his best years when the team is not competing and then attempt to trade him when he is more expensive and in his 30’s hoping for a decent return (which probably won’t happen) or we can trade him now when his price is at its highest and get players in the A+ minors range to build for a playoff run in the future.  Option #1 is what the orioles have classically done over the years that leads to mediocrity.  Option #2 is the way out if mediocrity which I would hope is everyone’s goal.  I vote for option #2 even though I would love to keep him just so we have someone respectable pitching for us.

I absolutely agree in concept, but I don’t think this year will be enough to maximize his value. I think he’ll need another year, and then maybe get traded in the off-season.

Only if the oriole management doesn’t think he’s for real will they try and trade him now, and I don’t think the return would be very good.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 2/16/2020 at 10:57 AM, fitzi22 said:

The orioles classically hold on to players too long and don’t get max value for them when they are able to.  Now that’s fine when you are competing for the division or a wild card but the O’s are still 3 years away and maybe more from being in that position.  Means is coming off an all star campaign and has 5 more years of cheap controllability which is valuable.  He might end up being an all star again but I think the cards are stacked against him. He is 26 and his best years are now.  We can keep him during his best years when the team is not competing and then attempt to trade him when he is more expensive and in his 30’s hoping for a decent return (which probably won’t happen) or we can trade him now when his price is at its highest and get players in the A+ minors range to build for a playoff run in the future.  Option #1 is what the orioles have classically done over the years that leads to mediocrity.  Option #2 is the way out if mediocrity which I would hope is everyone’s goal.  I vote for option #2 even though I would love to keep him just so we have someone respectable pitching for us.

What would you trade for John Means right now?  What kind of prospect?  You just made an argument that he was pretty good when teams didn't have a book on him, but didn't do so well in the 2nd half.  Don't you think other teams consider Means a fairly promising guy who is probably a mid-range starter with a bit of variation/risk in his projection?  I don't think I'd trade a number of good prospects for him, in fact I don't know if I'd do much better than a guy who might be John Means in 2-3 years.

[TommyPickles]

I stand by my earlier prediction that John Means will be on the next Orioles' playoff roster.

[SteveA]

7 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I stand by my earlier prediction that John Means will be on the next Orioles' playoff roster.

As a 60 year old pitching coach?

[fitzi22]

Drungo, If (big if) John Means has a good first half to this season that mimics his successes from last year and not his shortcomings, yes I believe the Orioles should trade him and I believe they will get some usable quality in return.  Means is turning 27 next month and has shown ability to be an all star level left handed pitcher in his prime.  Oh and he is controllable for the next 5 years, half of that at a low salary.  What playoff team wouldn’t want that?  The Orioles need to load up on A+ prospects to come through the system around the same time as Rutschman, Rodriguez and Hall and I think this is an excellent opportunity to load up on guys in that area.  Actually getting guys who will be John Means in 2-3 years is exactly what we need to be doing.  This team is still at least that far away and probably further away than that

 

Edited March 12, 2020 by fitzi22