Are we witnessing a change in Elias' thinking?

[SteveA]

8 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I think the projected roster has amassed something like 5 WAR less than the next worst roster, and that Elias has not made any appreciable attempts to add talent to this organization out side of the Rule 4 draft and some leftover international signees.

Who cares how much WAR they have amassed?  Austin Hays has amassed 0.7 total WAR.   Would we be better off if we brought Curtis Granderson out of retirement and started him in CF?  He's amassed 47 career WAR.

Seems like trying to measure a young team's potential by "WAR amassed" makes zero sense at all.

 

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Kremer?   

[Camden_yardbird]

33 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Who cares how much WAR they have amassed?  Austin Hays has amassed 0.7 total WAR.   Would we be better off if we brought Curtis Granderson out of retirement and started him in CF?  He's amassed 47 career WAR.

Seems like trying to measure a young team's potential by "WAR amassed" makes zero sense at all.

 

 

Projected WAR as well.

I also really dont understand anyone who defends this roster with "did you want to sign Granderson instead" and yet everyone seems okay with the fact that we are going to be pitching 4 starters over 30...

 

[SteveA]

2 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Projected WAR as well.

I also really dont understand anyone who defends this roster with "did you want to sign Granderson instead" and yet everyone seems okay with the fact that we are going to be pitching 4 starters over 30...

 

Because we know what is happening.   Those guys in the rotation are holding spots until our minor leaguers are ready to debut.   And that day is getting closer and closer.   We could see Akin, Zimmerman, and/or Kremer getting starts sometime between now and mid 2021.  

In the mean time, we have fill-ins.

[Camden_yardbird]

2 hours ago, SteveA said:

Because we know what is happening.   Those guys in the rotation are holding spots until our minor leaguers are ready to debut.   And that day is getting closer and closer.   We could see Akin, Zimmerman, and/or Kremer getting starts sometime between now and mid 2021.  

In the mean time, we have fill-ins.

Why sign super old players who will have no value added to the team than say someone like shelby Miller, Taijuan Walker or Colin McHugh who could have had more value.  You are getting 5+ ERAs out of either set or players, but the potential added value of the younger set is much higher.

[Tx Oriole]

6 hours ago, weams said:

No. I think the entire purpose of 2020 is to help develop an elite talent pipeline.  And 2021. 

I hope so. That’s what the O’s need. More talented pipeline. IMO 

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

A year ago Elias seemed to be focused on getting a high draft choice over winning.   Now,  not so much.   Maybe he sees the reality that his team has progressed enough that a top 5 draft draft choice in 2021 is unlikely.

Bailey's and Rucker's return would probably would not have happened a year ago.  Not when Elias describes both as talented young players with major league futures.  So why did he send them back now?   Yes it might be because they had to spend the whole season on the major league active roster which limits the team flexibility but it also could be because:

1.  Elias believes that Akin, Kremer and Zimmerman are close to the majors.  Elias says they still need some AAA experience but says they should be in the majors soon.   Soon being in a few months?

2) Means, Cobb and Wojo give the O's some starting stability.

3) Leblanc, Milone and Eshelman could be a good starting bridge to the younger starters.

4) There seems to be depth in the relief core.   Harvey, Givens, Bleier, Castro, Carroll, Fry, Scott, Sulser, Stewart and Eshelman

5) The offense looks improved with Davis, Hays, Mountcastle all looking to be improved over last year.  Plus some hope that Ruiz, Alberto and Santander may put up better offensive numbers this year.

6) The defense is stronger with Iglesias, Hays, Alberto, Davis playing bigger roles.

7)  The bench looks stronger with Valaika, Martin, Williams, Velazquez and Holaday  in the organization and available during the season.

With all this Elias could be seeing the O's as moving from bottom dwellers to a team on the raise.  That has little to do with he ST record and a lot to do with improved talent at the major league level.

What do you think?

 

I like your optimism and you're clearly a very informed Orioles fan - but I disagree with you entirely.

The O's look destined for a Top 5 Draft Choice in 2021, in my opinion. While Hays/Mountcastle is exciting from a fan perspective, the Orioles traded away Villar and Bundy, who were two of their most valuable players.

Your second point mentioned that Means, Cobb, and Wojo give the O's some starting stability - I think the exact opposite. Cobb is injury prone. Wojo looked okay in 80IP last year, but that isn't a big enough body of work to expect something. Means is certainly going to regress. They traded away their most reliable starter in Bundy.

It's difficult to predict, but I think the Orioles will be one of the worst, if not the worst, team in baseball this year. Their closest shot at near-term success is drafting a top college arm in the next two drafts. Theoretically, you'd have Adley, GrayRod, DL Hall, and Emerson Hancock/Kumar Rocker all ready at the same time (Adley probably earlier), with Hays/Diaz/Mountcastle as hopefully solid regulars by then.

That's an intriguing team, that'd also hopefully have a solid development pipeline to support it long-term. 

 

[interloper]

The plan was never to lose as many games as possible on purpose. That's just something people assume. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

The plan was never to lose as many games as possible on purpose. That's just something people assume. 

I agree, losing games is just a side effect.  If the O's were really emphasizing losing games they could have lost more last year, maybe enough to beat out the Tigers.

[thezeroes]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agree, losing games is just a side effect.  If the O's were really emphasizing losing games they could have lost more last year, maybe enough to beat out the Tigers.

We did allow the Tigers to win the season series 3 wins to 4 losses.  Even if we had allowed them to sweep us and everything else stayed the same they would have still had one more loss than the Orioles.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I agree, losing games is just a side effect.  If the O's were really emphasizing losing games they could have lost more last year, maybe enough to beat out the Tigers.

No Front Office is crazy enough to directly mandate that the players should try to lose games on purpose. That'd result in fines and suspensions greater than what we saw with Trashcan-gate.

But, they can roll out a bunch of crap on the field and let it happen organically. That's what's happening. It's absolutely the plan.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think he just reached the point in his life where he couldn't stand going to bed with atomic mad at him anymore.

[Aristotelian]

Just progressing according to the plan. Step one was reduce payroll and get rid of players who won't be part of the rebuild. Step two is let the young talent develop when ready (with stopgaps as needed). Tanking per se never was part of the plan. The Iglesias signing was a bigger change of direction than sending back the Rule 5 guys, although I am surprised he didn't at least keep Rucker. 

[TheOtherRipken]

The only logical reasons for returning the rule vs:

1) they have late spring cuts they want flexibility to grab

2) they want those roster spots to be able to use them as waiver wire tryout spots throughout the season

I haven’t seen a single positive development that would indicate this team would be ready to compete next year. If they don’t look better by 2022 thats a major problem though.

[thezeroes]

38 minutes ago, TheOtherRipken said:

The only logical reasons for returning the rule vs:

1) they have late spring cuts they want flexibility to grab

2) they want those roster spots to be able to use them as waiver wire tryout spots throughout the season

I haven’t seen a single positive development that would indicate this team would be ready to compete next year. If they don’t look better by 2022 thats a major problem though.

I would add a third reason:

3)  During the season you need to have the ability (with players that have them remaining) to place players on optional assignment.  Rule 5 players have no options.