When Will the 2020 MLB Season Begin? (Poll)

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, foxfield said:

We all want some normalcy to return.  And I won't be political, but in general if given a choice, I think people would sign up for this ending at Easter.  I think when we look at the massive steps being taken, with sports, schools and businesses, that the reality is this will go on far longer than weeks. Nobody wants that, and surely if it runs that way, there will be scars.  I am resigned to the fact that I must assume I have it along with everyone in my family.  And that we must....must...make sure we do everything in our power to make sure we do not give it to anyone else.

Yes, it means things will be different.  Maybe it means no baseball until June or July...maybe not at all this year.  So instead of debating the Orioles starting pitching, we can critique Tony's simulated start to the season.  (Note to Tony...couldn't you run 10,000,000 sims and find the one where the Orioles have a Why not 2020 Campaign?).

Stay as light hearted as possible, as friendly as can be and approach this with the Brooks Robinson approach.  Everyone is a friend and everyone is a fan.  We can do this.

Imagine

If you use a binomial probability calculator, which I think is a pretty decent estimate, it says a 72-win team (on true talent) has about a 1% chance of winning 87 games.  The Orioles are probably about a .350 team, or mid-50s in wins.  If that's true, and the binomial distribution holds, the Orioles have less than a 0.001% chance of 87 wins.  So something like one in 1.5 million.

10,000,000 sims was probably too much to ask of @Tony-OH.  But maybe 1,500,000 isn't so bad? 

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If you use a binomial probability calculator, which I think is a pretty decent estimate, it says a 72-win team (on true talent) has about a 1% chance of winning 87 games.  The Orioles are probably about a .350 team, or mid-50s in wins.  If that's true, and the binomial distribution holds, the Orioles have less than a 0.001% chance of 87 wins.  So something like one in 1.5 million.

10,000,000 sims was probably too much to ask of @Tony-OH.  But maybe 1,500,000 isn't so bad? 

Think I'll pass.

[foxfield]

18 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Think I'll pass.

We're doomed!

 

[weams]

Well. July at the earliest now. I think it is done. 

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, weams said:

Well. July at the earliest now. I think it is done. 

I'm inclined to agree with you. The only way would be if a vaccine came online and by all reports that's still a good bit away.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, weams said:

Well. July at the earliest now. I think it is done. 

So an 81 game season? Despite what Boras may want I think it's safe to say 162 games is out of the question now. Maybe between 100-120 games, but I think that requires scheduled doubleheaders to be feasible. 

[mdbdotcom]

2 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

So an 81 game season? Despite what Boras may want I think it's safe to say 162 games is out of the question now. Maybe between 100-120 games, but I think that requires scheduled doubleheaders to be feasible. 

162 games. 81 double headers, all five inning games. Every ticket is a two for the price of one bargain. Easy peasy.

[24fps]

5 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

So an 81 game season? Despite what Boras may want I think it's safe to say 162 games is out of the question now. Maybe between 100-120 games, but I think that requires scheduled doubleheaders to be feasible. 

At this point, is there anybody who wouldn't consider an 81-game season a gift?  I'd take it in a heartbeat.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

9 minutes ago, 24fps said:

At this point, is there anybody who wouldn't consider an 81-game season a gift?  I'd take it in a heartbeat.

Same. Half a season of baseball and the postseason is better than no baseball at all. 

[weams]

 

[24fps]

Empty stadium games under consideration.  No timetable set.

Little Kenny R. reporting sez Bleacher Report:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2885018-mlb-reportedly-considering-playing-in-empty-stadiums-during-coronavirus-pandemic?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral

[tntoriole]

12 hours ago, 24fps said:

Empty stadium games under consideration.  No timetable set.

Little Kenny R. reporting sez Bleacher Report:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2885018-mlb-reportedly-considering-playing-in-empty-stadiums-during-coronavirus-pandemic?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral

Hard to know, but this could very well be the only baseball season ever cancelled since the founding of the MLB structure in 1903...I hope not....no matter how short....

[UpstateNYfan]

On 3/30/2020 at 6:53 PM, mdbdotcom said:

162 games. 81 double headers, all five inning games. Every ticket is a two for the price of one bargain. Easy peasy.

It's not two for the price of one. It is 1.11 for the price of one.

[weams]

On 3/30/2020 at 6:53 PM, mdbdotcom said:

162 games. 81 double headers, all five inning games. Every ticket is a two for the price of one bargain. Easy peasy.

Ticket? There will be no games played in front of audiences this year. 

[accinfo]

On 3/30/2020 at 6:53 PM, mdbdotcom said:

162 games. 81 double headers, all five inning games. Every ticket is a two for the price of one bargain. Easy peasy.

You know I don't think that idea is that horrible.  It would be easier to gear up pitchers to a 5 inning game.  Sure this season and everything involved will be an outlier forever. There is nothing that can be done now to change that.