Opening Day: Yankees bomb Orioles 9-5 (sim)

[LA2]

3 hours ago, SteveA said:

Meanwhile, USA Today is using Strat-o-matic to simulate the games.   In their sim, the Orioles got 2 in the 8th off Ottavino to beat the Yankees 3-2.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2020/03/26/mlb-opening-day-2020-strat-0-matic-simulations-games-results/2919419001/

Yay!

[LA2]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

BOTTOM OF THE 9TH
Baltimore Orioles batting - Pitching for New York Yankees : RHP Chad Green
Batting: LHB Dwight Smith Jr.	0-0: Ball 1-0: Ball 2-0: Called Strike 2-1: Foul Ball, location: 2F 2-2: Ground out 6-3 (Groundball, 6M, EV 89.4 MPH)
Batting: RHB Jose Iglesias	0-0: Ball 1-0: Called Strike 1-1: Foul Ball, location: 2F 1-2: Ball 2-2: Strikes out swinging
Batting: LHB Rio Ruiz	0-0: Ball 1-0: Called Strike 1-1: Called Strike 1-2: Ball 2-2: SINGLE (Groundball, 3D, EV 94.4 MPH)
Pitching: LHP Zack Britton
Batting: RHB Austin Hays	0-0: Ball 1-0: Ball 2-0: Called Strike 2-1: Swinging Strike 2-2: Ball 3-2: Strikes out looking
Bottom of the 9th over - 0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors, 1 left on base; New York 9 - Baltimore 5

Bringing Zach in to get last out in the form of a right-handed hitter in the 9th inning up 9-5 game with only one man on base seems way off.

[LA2]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Sorry, still trying to work out how to display the info here. 

 

Thanks for posting the complete game--really enjoyed it.

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Thanks for posting the complete game--really enjoyed it.

You're welcome. I think what I will do in the future is put the complete game in one post so you can see how the game went. Unless people want to once in awhile do it live..

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You're welcome. I think what I will do in the future is put the complete game in one post so you can see how the game went. Unless people want to once in awhile do it live..

 

I think doing it as an actual game thread with a minute or so between updates would be great....if we could get people to come out for it.  Pretty big if.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think doing it as an actual game thread with a minute or so between updates would be great....if we could get people to come out for it.  Pretty big if.

Yeah, we'd have to plan it out... Couldn't do it every night be would worth doing one night if there was interest.

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Yeah, we'd have to plan it out... Couldn't do it every night be would worth doing one night if there was interest.

Hangout night at home.

 

[orioles119]

It would be cool to do like  Facebook live event as well once in a while to fill the void.

[WillyM]

I was under the impression that Chris Davis was having a pretty darn good spring this year - showing good patience on pitches outside of the strike zone and generally making good contact when he swung, with nowhere near the strikeout rate he's displayed in recent seasons. 

The simulation seems to have given no credence at all to his offensive numbers in spring training this year.

On the other hand, I can't find this year's spring training statistics on the Orioles' website.

So I guess it's not surprising that the simulation gave little credence to statistics that weren't available.

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, WillyM said:

I was under the impression that Chris Davis was having a pretty darn good spring this year - showing good patience on pitches outside of the strike zone and generally making good contact when he swung, with nowhere near the strikeout rate he's displayed in recent seasons. 

The simulation seems to have given no credence at all to his offensive numbers in spring training this year.

On the other hand, I can't find this year's spring training statistics on the Orioles' website.

So I guess it's not surprising that the simulation gave little credence to statistics that weren't available.

I'm sure they weren't adjusting player values on the fly because of spring training results.

[PaulFolk]

58 minutes ago, WillyM said:

I was under the impression that Chris Davis was having a pretty darn good spring this year - showing good patience on pitches outside of the strike zone and generally making good contact when he swung, with nowhere near the strikeout rate he's displayed in recent seasons. 

The simulation seems to have given no credence at all to his offensive numbers in spring training this year.

On the other hand, I can't find this year's spring training statistics on the Orioles' website.

So I guess it's not surprising that the simulation gave little credence to statistics that weren't available.

Spring stats are here, FYI. But yeah, as Can said, there's no reason the simulation would incorporate spring training statistics.

[LA2]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure they weren't adjusting player values on the fly because of spring training results.

But then there wd be no reason to bat him 5th, considering how he floated down to the bottom third of the lineup last season.

[interloper]

Seems unrealistic that Means would not have more strikeouts off the changeup. Otherwise, seems legit!

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, LA2 said:

But then there wd be no reason to bat him 5th, considering how he floated down to the bottom third of the lineup last season.

I batted him 5th, not the sim. I was taking his hot spring into order and where he was batting during spring training as to where I though Hyde would bat him.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

Seems unrealistic that Means would not have more strikeouts off the changeup. Otherwise, seems legit!

Why? It's clear he was not "on his game" so perhaps he wasn't commanding the changeup well? Not sure I would say it's unrealistic on a day in which he was hammered that he didn't have more strikeouts.