Kjerstad comes in at #99 on BA Top 100

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Seems like Elias choices were: 

1) Kjerstad (underslot),  Mayo and Baumler (overslot)

2) Martin (overslot)

3) Lacy for #2 slot money

I would have taken Lacy for slot but I understand with Elias' history with 1st round pitchers why he did what he did.

So if Martin is looking for #2 money from the Jays how would’ve that been overslot here? 

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Everything they can do includes telling him to pound sand and taking the 2021 pick.

 

They can .... but they won’t. As I mentioned, they probably will go just underneath the penalty threshold and perhaps squeeze the other remaining unsigned pick.

[Number5]

40 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So if Martin is looking for #2 money from the Jays how would’ve that been overslot here? 

There were reports that Boras told the Orioles that they wanted #1 money from the Orioles, which would have been over-slot for the second pick.

[MCO'sFan]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Not trying to speak for you ....This is what you said dude!

, I am suggesting that it is a farce to have Martin ranked 16th when three teams passed on him after Torkelson was taken (not just the O's).

 

If the post wasn't clear then I will try to do better in the future but I am not sure how this means I don't think that underslotting had nothing to do with it? We won't know if these teams sign their picks for under slot until they are signed. I think it is widely expected that Lacy signs for slot. If that is true then it wasn't an issue with that pick. What I meant is actually what I said and not your interpretation. I am done discussing this with you. I will agree to disagree. 

[Roll Tide]

28 minutes ago, Number5 said:

There were reports that Boras told the Orioles that they wanted #1 money from the Orioles, which would have been over-slot for the second pick.

Even if that were the case you take him and agree for slot plus $350K. Imo

[MCO'sFan]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t agree with the opinion of @MCO'sFan that Kjerstad was the Orioles highest rated player. I also don’t think Elias believes that either. I think he likes Kjerstad and his potential. But they sacrificed the #2 pick value to have money to considerably over pay Mayo and Baumer. 
 

Id still think they made a mistake! I won’t hate it as much as I would if Kjerstad turns out to be a high strikeout .240 hitter that hits 20-30 home runs with a low OBP. If you look at prior drafts as I have mentioned over and over, only 30ish % of 1st rounders will be all star players. That number drops as the rounds move along and then drop off the table. 
 

Also, I’m not a big fan of drafting high school players, All you have to do is look at guys like Dylan Bundy, he was the can’t miss TOR guy that the Orioles desired. He was a major disappointment. Giving up the best player at 2 for a couple of lower probability lottery tickets is not a good strategy. I’m not saying it won’t work out. It may indeed! I’m saying I don’t like the strategy or passing on the best pure hitter in the draft. And unlike somewhere I’m not trying to convince myself that Elias thought Kjerstad was the better selection.

I agree that this is a good post and represents a good sound argument for your opinion. I want to clarify one thing. I may not have been clear. It is not my opinion that Kjerstad was ME's top BPA. How could I know that? What I said was (IIRC) that I have no reason not to believe him when he says that. People were saying that Correa couldn't have possibly been their BPA when he was drafted. Maybe he was and maybe he wasn't. Let's just hope as O's fans that it works out as well. 

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

I agree that this is a good post and represents a good sound argument for your opinion. I want to clarify one thing. I may not have been clear. It is not my opinion that Kjerstad was ME's top BPA. How could I know that? What I said was (IIRC) that I have no reason not to believe him when he says that. People were saying that Correa couldn't have possibly been their BPA when he was drafted. Maybe he was and maybe he wasn't. Let's just hope as O's fans that it works out as well. 

Got it

But, you were ripping Baseball America’s rating at #16 and most if not all agreed that he had the best hit tool in the draft. A 70 ranking is pretty awesome and Martin will likely be a PerenniaL .300 Hitter with a high OBP and modest strikeout rates. Many were also suggesting increase power, 20ish if I’m not mistaken due to the loft trajectory.

As far as Elias, he said in another article that savings with Kjerstad wasn’t the only reason they took him. Sure it might not have been the only reason. But the way it played out it was definitely the main reason. With what they have left and the amount they can go over without penalty he’s going to be light 1-2 million that the Os gave to Baumer and Mayo. I really don’t expect Servideo to go much if any under slot.

I don’t expect Elias to admit in anyway that Kjerstad is inferior or he’s a lesser player than Martin. He wouldn’t do that as it could damage his relationship with the player and or hurt Kjerstad’s confidence.

[ArtVanDelay]

48 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Got it

But, you were ripping Baseball America’s rating at #16 and most if not all agreed that he had the best hit tool in the draft. A 70 ranking is pretty awesome and Martin will likely be a PerenniaL .300 Hitter with a high OBP and modest strikeout rates. Many were also suggesting increase power, 20ish if I’m not mistaken due to the loft trajectory.

As far as Elias, he said in another article that savings with Kjerstad wasn’t the only reason they took him. Sure it might not have been the only reason. But the way it played out it was definitely the main reason. With what they have left and the amount they can go over without penalty he’s going to be light 1-2 million that the Os gave to Baumer and Mayo. I really don’t expect Servideo to go much if any under slot.

I don’t expect Elias to admit in anyway that Kjerstad is inferior or he’s a lesser player than Martin. He wouldn’t do that as it could damage his relationship with the player and or hurt Kjerstad’s confidence.

You think that’s the LIKELY outcome?

I would think there’s a better chance that he’s Richie Martin 2.0.  Most prospects fail. 

[oriolediehard]

The great thing about it, he looks like a powerful left handed hitter. This is rare.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

You think that’s the LIKELY outcome?

I would think there’s a better chance that he’s Richie Martin 2.0.  Most prospects fail. 

Agreed .... also the ones with funny swings that strike out a lot

[Roll Tide]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If Elias shared the opinion that Martin was a likely perennial .300 hitter, high OBP, 20 homer guy, the only way he passes on him is if he thinks Kjerstad is a likely 3-5 hitter on a contending team.

What you, Roll Tide, keep ignoring is this. What is likely is that on the Orioles board there is very little seperation between about 5 players, which likely included Martin, Veen, Lacy, Kjerstad, and a other.  They said they were considering from a list of 5 players.  Just as Fangraphs,  BA, and other publications had significant differences on some players, the Orioles had there own rankings with opinios from different scouts, crosscheckers, analysts,  Ciolek, and Elias.  Some MAY have had Kjerstad higher.  Elias MAY have thought internally that he liked Kjerstad better or very close in value to Martin. He may have felt this way about one or two others. He may have gotten a feel for what each would accept as the #2 pick. At this point he may have concluded he could get a player he liked more, as much, or very, very close to Martin AND get him for 2M less and use that money later in the draft.  What you refuse go get through your head is the fact that media consensus had Martin 1-2 and Kjerstad 8-12 with Martin as clearly better.  It would be logical to conclude that Elias saw the difference between the two a lot differently than media consensus.  Get over it and lets see what happens.  

Or he did it to play the overslot game later which is closer to reality as it’s really happening. But believe whatever you want ....you have no chance of convincing me on your theory and more than I do with you pointing out the facts that Kjerstad is signing for less than slot and the money was used to overpay a couple of HS prospects that had been promised scholarships and had leverage.

[BohKnowsBmore]

39 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Or he did it to play the overslot game later which is closer to reality as it’s really happening. But believe whatever you want ....you have no chance of convincing me on your theory and more than I do with you pointing out the facts that Kjerstad is signing for less than slot and the money was used to overpay a couple of HS prospects that had been promised scholarships and had leverage.

Nobody is claiming that signing amount didn’t factor in. They are suggesting that it’s possible ME thinks he can have his cake and eat it too. Drafting/Signing a player with comparable talent AND having more money to work with. 
 

to put it simply, he signed player A for ~$2M less than he would have player B. He thinks the difference between players A and B is far less than 2M 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Even if that were the case you take him and agree for slot plus $350K. Imo

That really hampers what you can do the rest of the draft.    To me you only do that if Martin was the no. 1 guy on your board and you feel blessed that you got him at 2.  

[hoosiers]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Or he did it to play the overslot game later which is closer to reality as it’s really happening. But believe whatever you want ....you have no chance of convincing me on your theory and more than I do with you pointing out the facts that Kjerstad is signing for less than slot and the money was used to overpay a couple of HS prospects that had been promised scholarships and had leverage.

It is difficult to post with someone who has already said they can't be convinced of changing their opinion.  I certainly understand those who had a large preference for the Os to simply select Martin and move on down the line.  I was comfortable with that line of thinking and posted such before the draft, but I have little issue with our GM going in the direction he did.  A couple things to note:

 - it appears highly likely that Martin will receive less $ from the Jays than he/Boras requested from the Os.  This isn't right and IMO is an indication that Boras failed to get his client the most $ possible.  

 - Kjerstad outhit both Martin and Torkelson on the collegiate national team.

 - Elias has said that he thought Kjerstad was on his way to a monster season given the improved BB and K ratios.  Elias said the Os did research on whether college juniors with improved BB and K ratios in the first portion of the season were likely to carry that improvement through the balance of the season - the answer to that research would appear to be that such improvement is sustained throughout the year.

 - teams viewed the shortened college season in different ways.  It appears that the Os projected out the remainder of the unplayed 2020 college season and used that 2020 projection as a key factor in how players were ranked.  

 

[MCO'sFan]

8 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

It is difficult to post with someone who has already said they can't be convinced of changing their opinion.  I certainly understand those who had a large preference for the Os to simply select Martin and move on down the line.  I was comfortable with that line of thinking and posted such before the draft, but I have little issue with our GM going in the direction he did.  A couple things to note:

 - it appears highly likely that Martin will receive less $ from the Jays than he/Boras requested from the Os.  This isn't right and IMO is an indication that Boras failed to get his client the most $ possible.  

 - Kjerstad outhit both Martin and Torkelson on the collegiate national team.

 - Elias has said that he thought Kjerstad was on his way to a monster season given the improved BB and K ratios.  Elias said the Os did research on whether college juniors with improved BB and K ratios in the first portion of the season were likely to carry that improvement through the balance of the season - the answer to that research would appear to be that such improvement is sustained throughout the year.

 - teams viewed the shortened college season in different ways.  It appears that the Os projected out the remainder of the unplayed 2020 college season and used that 2020 projection as a key factor in how players were ranked.  

 

Great post. I wish I had written it!