Results of MLB Covid-19 Intake Testing to start camp

[Redskins Rick]

40 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Very dismayed to read this. Average age out there must be older, relatively speaking, and so quite concerning. Since I will be in Miami, I am encouraged to see that its mayor is reclosing to a certain extent. Superficially, the mortality rate (deaths / total confirmed infected) has been decreasing, but this is deceptive; it's due to the rapid increase in the number of cases outrunning the increase (not decrease) in number of deaths.

I think as more people are tested daily, is pushing the mortality rate down.

[Number5]

9 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Very dismayed to read this. Average age out there must be older, relatively speaking, and so quite concerning. Since I will be in Miami, I am encouraged to see that its mayor is reclosing to a certain extent and that the mortality rate (deaths / total confirmed infected) has actually been decreasing https://corona.help/country/united-states/state/florida/miami-dade.

This is certainly not my field, but it stands to reason that a sudden sharp increase in confirmed cases will naturally accompany a reduction in mortality rate for a time.  An increase in the number of deaths would occur later, as there is logically some time that passes between initial infection and death.  It seems to me that a more informative ratio to determine mortality rate would be the number of deaths divided by all concluded cases (number of deaths plus number of recoveries.)  The ratio of deaths divided by total confirmed cases that you mentioned results in a distorted rate, as it treats all of those that are currently infected by the virus as if they have recovered.  The number of deaths has risen, but the death rate, as you have calculated it, seems to have gone down because of the sudden dramatic increase in new cases that are currently battling the virus.  I'm not trying to be alarmist, but rather believe that we need to be sure of what the statistics we are looking at mean.  Hopefully, the day will come where there will be no new cases.  When that day comes, however, it seems likely to me that there will continue to be victims that succumb to the disease for a period of time until everyone that's been infected recovers.

[Number5]

Sorry LA2, I see that you edited your post while I was typing my reply and that you have indeed noted the deceptiveness of the mortality rate in view of the sudden increase in new cases.

[LA2]

18 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Sorry LA2, I see that you edited your post while I was typing my reply and that you have indeed noted the deceptiveness of the mortality rate in view of the sudden increase in new cases.

No problem!

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

I am sure a lot of people in Texas are trying to get tested right now.  Perhaps they should have picked a different state to train in.  Seems the places where players have a hard time getting tested are places with high rates of new infections.   Not sure why you would want your players to travel to Texas, Florida or California right now.  Should have picked minor league stadiums in areas with low infection rates to train. 

Seems like Houston is about the worst area in the country right now.  So Astro''s decide to have their training camp there?  

The tests are supposedly all coming directly from a lab that MLB contracted with in Utah, so the location of teams shouldn't make a difference as to the availability of the tests.

There is no way that Minor League stadiums have enough office space and room in the clubhouse to allow for enough distancing with 60-man rosters and MLB on and off-field staff. As it is, the Orioles have like 6 new double-wide trailers in the parking lot at Camden Yards for additional space.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I think as more people are tested daily, is pushing the mortality rate down.

It is a combination of many things, including this one.    A few factors:

1.   As you say, as we detect a greater percentage of the people who have the coronavirus, the percentage of detected cases resulting in death necessarily goes down.

2.    We have learned a lot about how to treat the disease in the last 3-4 months.    So we are getting better at stopping known cases from becoming fatal.   

3.    The cases are more spread out throughout the country, so most places that have patients aren’t in a situation where their systems are overwhelmed, as opposed to the early situation in NYC.   There are some places that may be reaching this point now, but they are generally not as populous as NYC.

4.    The growth rate in cases the last 3-4 weeks has been very large, and the deaths resulting from those new cases haven’t occurred yet.    

My best guess is we will see more deaths in July than we did in June, but it won’t be proportional to the spike in new confirmed cases we’ve seen in the last 3 weeks.    And hopefully it won’t get to April/May levels.    

 

[LA2]

29 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I think as more people are tested daily, is pushing the mortality rate down.

Yes, I agree. I realized my error and revised it soon after posting. Thank you.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It is a combination of many things, including this one.    A few factors:

1.   As you say, as we detect a greater percentage of the people who have the coronavirus, the percentage of detected cases resulting in death necessarily goes down.

2.    We have learned a lot about how to treat the disease in the last 3-4 months.    So we are getting better at stopping known cases from becoming fatal.   

3.    The cases are more spread out throughout the country, so most places that have patients aren’t in a situation where their systems are overwhelmed, as opposed to the early situation in NYC.   There are some places that may be reaching this point now, but they are generally not as populous as NYC.

4.    The growth rate in cases the last 3-4 weeks has been very large, and the deaths resulting from those new cases haven’t occurred yet.    

My best guess is we will see more deaths in July than we did in June, but it won’t be proportional to the spike in new confirmed cases we’ve seen in the last 3 weeks.    And hopefully it won’t get to April/May levels.    

 

you make more sense than I did, thanks.

I personally do not believe this is round 2 expected in the fall, I think this spike is just people getting anzy and wanting to get back to normal, too soon, and a disregard for the role the mask plays is keeping us safe.

 

[backwardsk]

As we’ve been asked to many times, I’ll add my COVID-19 comments in the general discussion Coronavirus thread.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Yes, I agree. I realized my error and revised it soon after posting. Thank you.

Frobby did a great job of that already.

I think and am grateful, the mortality rate isnt what they first feared it would be.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Yes, I agree. I realized my error and revised it soon after posting. Thank you.

kind of hard, when the word covid right in the title of the thread, but you are correct.

[atomic]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

The tests are supposedly all coming directly from a lab that MLB contracted with in Utah, so the location of teams shouldn't make a difference as to the availability of the tests.

There is no way that Minor League stadiums have enough office space and room in the clubhouse to allow for enough distancing with 60-man rosters and MLB on and off-field staff. As it is, the Orioles have like 6 new double-wide trailers in the parking lot at Camden Yards for additional space.

Someone has to perform the tests.  They could go to a college . Not all 60 man rosters are at one facility now.  Don't make excuses for poor decision making by MLB.

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It is a combination of many things, including this one.    A few factors:

1.   As you say, as we detect a greater percentage of the people who have the coronavirus, the percentage of detected cases resulting in death necessarily goes down.

2.    We have learned a lot about how to treat the disease in the last 3-4 months.    So we are getting better at stopping known cases from becoming fatal.   

3.    The cases are more spread out throughout the country, so most places that have patients aren’t in a situation where their systems are overwhelmed, as opposed to the early situation in NYC.   There are some places that may be reaching this point now, but they are generally not as populous as NYC.

4.    The growth rate in cases the last 3-4 weeks has been very large, and the deaths resulting from those new cases haven’t occurred yet.    

My best guess is we will see more deaths in July than we did in June, but it won’t be proportional to the spike in new confirmed cases we’ve seen in the last 3 weeks.    And hopefully it won’t get to April/May levels.    

 

5.  Governors aren't forcing nursing homes to take in covid patients anymore. 

[atomic]

2 hours ago, Number5 said:

This is certainly not my field, but it stands to reason that a sudden sharp increase in confirmed cases will naturally accompany a reduction in mortality rate for a time.  An increase in the number of deaths would occur later, as there is logically some time that passes between initial infection and death.  It seems to me that a more informative ratio to determine mortality rate would be the number of deaths divided by all concluded cases (number of deaths plus number of recoveries.)  The ratio of deaths divided by total confirmed cases that you mentioned results in a distorted rate, as it treats all of those that are currently infected by the virus as if they have recovered.  The number of deaths has risen, but the death rate, as you have calculated it, seems to have gone down because of the sudden dramatic increase in new cases that are currently battling the virus.  I'm not trying to be alarmist, but rather believe that we need to be sure of what the statistics we are looking at mean.  Hopefully, the day will come where there will be no new cases.  When that day comes, however, it seems likely to me that there will continue to be victims that succumb to the disease for a period of time until everyone that's been infected recovers.

There is a lot more testing now than when this was peaking.  Early on only the sickest got tested.  Also nursing homes were infected in great numbers and that is where most of the people died. 2/3rds of the deaths in Maryland were in nursing homes.  Now older people and people in poor health are taking more precautions than younger people so more younger people are getting sick. I think the CDC estimate that covid-19 has an overall mortality rate of 0.6 percent. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 7/5/2020 at 4:39 PM, Can_of_corn said:

How could they not have the PPE on hand?

I keep asking that at the hospital where I work.