Bundy in L.A.

[Frobby]

I am a huge Bundy fan, and I hope he has great success in LA.    That said, there is pretty much nothing he could do this season that I would take as conclusive evidence that he has turned a corner.     In the past, he has had some very nice stretches but has had trouble maintaining his stamina over a full season.    There won't be a full season this year, so we aren't going to know how he would have done as the season wore on, no matter how good he is over 12 starts.

But I really do hope he pitches this well for the whole 60-game season and does well in future seasons.     He's been through a lot and I'd love to see him prove he was able to overcome it all.

[OFFNY]

On 8/6/2020 at 6:36 PM, backwardsk said:

 

Complete game, 10K.

 

o

 

Circa 1989 ........ 

 

 

 

o

[Natty]

I always thought a good pitching coach could fix Bundy. 

[Il BuonO]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I am a huge Bundy fan, and I hope he has great success in LA.    That said, there is pretty much nothing he could do this season that I would take as conclusive evidence that he has turned a corner.     In the past, he has had some very nice stretches but has had trouble maintaining his stamina over a full season.    There won't be a full season this year, so we aren't going to know how he would have done as the season wore on, no matter how good he is over 12 starts.

But I really do hope he pitches this well for the whole 60-game season and does well in future seasons.     He's been through a lot and I'd love to see him prove he was able to overcome it all.

You’re right about the consistency. However, I’ve always thought he was thoughtful out there, always trying to figure things out as he learned how to pitch instead of just over power hitters. He had to do that because of the drop in velocity. And the second half of last season I thought he got there. 

He pitches backwards now and has a nice arsenal from which to draw. In, out, up and down, he’s pitching. That last outing was fun to watch.

[ShaneDawg85]

19 hours ago, Natty said:

I always thought a good pitching coach could fix Bundy. 

Not to mention a better defense.

[24fps]

6 INN.  9K's.  0 Runs tonight.  At 92 pitches, I'm guessing he doesn't come out for the 7th.  I've watched his last two starts and there doesn't seem to be any trace of the power pitcher he was once destined to be.  None.  Sure is getting good results with his breaking stuff though.

[Il BuonO]

54 minutes ago, 24fps said:

6 INN.  9K's.  0 Runs tonight.  At 92 pitches, I'm guessing he doesn't come out for the 7th.  I've watched his last two starts and there doesn't seem to be any trace of the power pitcher he was once destined to be.  None.  Sure is getting good results with his breaking stuff though.

He did! Finished at 103 pitches and got the 10th K. Another masterful performance, commands four pitches and keeps the hitters off balance.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

[webbrick2010]

Did we do it again? Give away a Cy Young award winner.

I was all in for letting him go... but it's not my job and I don't have access to the data that is supposed to project his success

How much did the Angels pay him?

[Aglets]

17 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Did we do it again? Give away a Cy Young award winner.

I was all in for letting him go... but it's not my job and I don't have access to the data that is supposed to project his success

How much did the Angels pay him?

He's still on arbitration deals.  $5M this year,  one more ARB year in 2021 then he will allegedly hit FA.   So maybe he wins a Cy Young and the O's step up and give him a 9 figure deal...….right?   RIGHT?

[Camden_yardbird]

So let's talk about Bundy.   And I think this is probably a topic for the Orioles thread, because I think it shows some deeply disturbing signs about the player development and coaching under the current leadership.

I have waited to post this because I wanted to see a representative sample.  Four games is enough for me, but to qualify that, Bundy has had some nice five game stretches for the Orioles.  He is, however, a different pitcher now.  The key here is that he is a pitcher now that the Orioles should have turned him into when he was in Baltimore and we need to ask ourselves "why didn't they?".

Let's talk about the changes (well actually the slider).  Last year I posted in another thread:

Quote

What I would like to see from Bundy (outside better FB command) is what Boyd and Corbin have done.  That is go full on Slider.  All three sit at about the same velocity fastball.  

Two years ago Corbin started throwing his slide around 37-40% of the time.  His slider pitch value was at about 12 (10 is pretty good for reference) at the time and the pitch value has only risen.

Boyd started the same process last year and continued this year to great results.  Boyd's PV on the slider was a slightly better 17 last year.

Bundy throws a 53/20/20 split (FB/SL/CH).  Two years ago that change was nasty, but as atomic pointed out, he was throwing with more velocity.  With the lower velocity the change wasn't nearly so effective last year.  I want to see Bundy came out and drop 40% sliders, work the fastball up and see what kind of starting pitcher he can be.

And that's exactly what the Angels have done with him.  In 2017 Bundy had a slider that had a pitch value of 12.2.  That was top 5 in the league.  Any pitching coach should have seen that and said lets throw that more.  They did.  The slider usage went up 3% to 25.4% but Bundy still had mixed results.  Why?  Because his fastball and particularly his sinker were trash (-13.5 PV), and he was still throwing that almost half the time (47%).  But they real problem here was come 2019 we had two pitchers in the league, Corbin and Boyd (the two pitchers with better sliders by PV in 2017), who in consecutive years had been turned into a slider first pitcher.  This was an all in approach, throw the slider 40+% of the time.  Unfortunately come 2019 the Orioles knew Bundy's FB was bad, and decreased its usage, but did the unthinkable and reduced his slider usage back to 22% under the Elias led team   Instead of turning into the curve they tried to recapture Bundy's plus changeup (and to their credit partially succeeded).

But lets talk about Bundy now.  He gets traded to the Angels.  What do they do?  Tell him to go be Corbin and Boyd.

This is Bundy's pitch mix this year:

FB: 30% (down 12%)

CH: 18.7% (up 1.5%, 8.7% over two years)

SL:  30.5% (up 9%)

And it has worked wonders.  They have functionally turned Bundy into a Corbin/Boyd + Greinke clone, using his slider and changeup as primary offerings and reducing the opportunity for mistakes with his fastball.  Now, I do expect some regression in the fastball, and certainly the park change will help some of those FB mistakes to stay in the yard. His HR/FB ration has been cut in half from 16% to 8% but he is also inducing a whole lot more soft contact, more swinging strikes, strikeouts,  and worse contact on balls in the zone.

It will be interesting to see if this is sustainable, I think it partially is given that we have seen other pitchers do it to great success.  The Orioles messed up on this one, and I am pretty disappointed with the focus on metrics and stats that the we have seen from them that they did not try this approach last year. 

 

[webbrick2010]

49 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

So let's talk about Bundy.   And I think this is probably a topic for the Orioles thread, because I think it shows some deeply disturbing signs about the player development and coaching under the current leadership.

I have waited to post this because I wanted to see a representative sample.  Four games is enough for me, but to qualify that, Bundy has had some nice five game stretches for the Orioles.  He is, however, a different pitcher now.  The key here is that he is a pitcher now that the Orioles should have turned him into when he was in Baltimore and we need to ask ourselves "why didn't they?".

Let's talk about the changes (well actually the slider).  Last year I posted in another thread:

And that's exactly what the Angels have done with him.  In 2017 Bundy had a slider that had a pitch value of 12.2.  That was top 5 in the league.  Any pitching coach should have seen that and said lets throw that more.  They did.  The slider usage went up 3% to 25.4% but Bundy still had mixed results.  Why?  Because his fastball and particularly his sinker were trash (-13.5 PV), and he was still throwing that almost half the time (47%).  But they real problem here was come 2019 we had two pitchers in the league, Corbin and Boyd (the two pitchers with better sliders by PV in 2017), who in consecutive years had been turned into a slider first pitcher.  This was an all in approach, throw the slider 40+% of the time.  Unfortunately come 2019 the Orioles knew Bundy's FB was bad, and decreased its usage, but did the unthinkable and reduced his slider usage back to 22% under the Elias led team   Instead of turning into the curve they tried to recapture Bundy's plus changeup (and to their credit partially succeeded).

But lets talk about Bundy now.  He gets traded to the Angels.  What do they do?  Tell him to go be Corbin and Boyd.

This is Bundy's pitch mix this year:

FB: 30% (down 12%)

CH: 18.7% (up 1.5%, 8.7% over two years)

SL:  30.5% (up 9%)

And it has worked wonders.  They have functionally turned Bundy into a Corbin/Boyd + Greinke clone, using his slider and changeup as primary offerings and reducing the opportunity for mistakes with his fastball.  Now, I do expect some regression in the fastball, and certainly the park change will help some of those FB mistakes to stay in the yard. His HR/FB ration has been cut in half from 16% to 8% but he is also inducing a whole lot more soft contact, more swinging strikes, strikeouts,  and worse contact on balls in the zone.

It will be interesting to see if this is sustainable, I think it partially is given that we have seen other pitchers do it to great success.  The Orioles messed up on this one, and I am pretty disappointed with the focus on metrics and stats that the we have seen from them that they did not try this approach last year. 

 

it is possible that Bundy resisted the suggestions from the Orioles that he increase his slider %, but was more receptive at a new organization. I'd like to think that is partly true. Also pitching in Camden Yards kills your confidence.

[Camden_yardbird]

15 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

it is possible that Bundy resisted the suggestions from the Orioles that he increase his slider %, but was more receptive at a new organization. I'd like to think that is partly true. Also pitching in Camden Yards kills your confidence.

Players can certainly be resistant, but having read books about some of the data driven approaches including about the astros and pirates, I can tell you the effective changes are dictated not suggested.

AJ Burnett was highly resistant to what the Pirates wanted him to do but they told him he had to, and it worked. 

As for the park, that's a mindset the Orioles have to change.  Certainly the park matters, but it certainly doesn't preclude success.

 

[weams]

On 8/9/2020 at 11:36 AM, Frobby said:

I am a huge Bundy fan, and I hope he has great success in LA.    That said, there is pretty much nothing he could do this season that I would take as conclusive evidence that he has turned a corner.     In the past, he has had some very nice stretches but has had trouble maintaining his stamina over a full season.    There won't be a full season this year, so we aren't going to know how he would have done as the season wore on, no matter how good he is over 12 starts.

But I really do hope he pitches this well for the whole 60-game season and does well in future seasons.     He's been through a lot and I'd love to see him prove he was able to overcome it all.

He does not miss Camden Yards

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

He does not miss Camden Yards

 

His career ERA+ is 98 at home and 103 on the road.  Not a huge difference.