It's time for the OH to turn the page

[wildcard]

On 8/10/2020 at 9:08 AM, Moose Milligan said:

wildcard's eternal optimism is not infectious.

I don't see that as a problem for me.   I see it has a problem for everyone that keeps looking at this team is  like they were last year and can't see what is happening right in front of them.

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Philip said:

But they are not bringing up a lot of young players to see what they have. How many Orioles have made their career debuts this season? Approximately… None?

We have had debuts, but they’ve all been from waiver wire pick ups and castoffs from other teams.

Yes because how this “season” ended up being ruined a lot of those plans.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, owknows said:

Yeah... I guess I wasn't really trying to suggest that everyone wear pom-poms and give a group cheer... just that sometimes we can get a little carried away with being "objective" and so much so that we become anti-fans.  I guess it's a fine line. 

To your point, and to your credit, I thought your post was very reasonable. You don't need to be unreasonably optimistic to enjoy your team's success. But if you become SO pessimistic (particularly when caught up in a personal squabble) that you have nothing good to say, you take away from things.

I agree with that, and I've often railed against the webbricks and the atomics who claim to be realists and use unrelenting pessimism as evidence of that.  I especially don't like the attitude among some that Elias' hiring was a mistake and that the entire plan is likely doomed, and the sooner they get on an entirely different track the better.  That started days or weeks after he was hired.

But I've learned over time that in any group, especially a messageboard, that there will always be a wide spread in opinion. And that will include a few people who are 100% convinced that it's all going to fail, and it's already in the process of that right now.  No matter what the circumstances are.

[DrungoHazewood]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't see that as a problem for me.   I see it has a problem for everyone that keeps looking at this team is  like they were last year and can't see what is happening right in front of them.

You mean that a team with 50-win true talent is in the midst of an 9-7 run?

How often does a team that you expect to be 5-11 have a 16 game run of 9-7 (or vice versa)?  All the time.  The '19 Orioles won 54 games, and had two overlapping a 16 game runs in July where they went 8-8.  In there was a 10 game period of 7-3.

But if you want to  believe that Tommy Milone is now Warren Spahn and Hanser Alberto is Luke Appling, more power to you.

[owknows]

14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You mean that a team with 50-win true talent is in the midst of an 9-7 run?

How often does a team that you expect to be 5-11 have a 16 game run of 9-7 (or vice versa)?  All the time.  The '19 Orioles won 54 games, and had two overlapping a 16 game runs in July where they went 8-8.  In there was a 10 game period of 7-3.

But if you want to  believe that Tommy Milone is now Warren Spahn and Hanser Alberto is Luke Appling, more power to you.

I don't know about Spahn and Appling...  but our regular position players not named Chris Davis have an average combined OPS that's over .900, and we have what passes for a pretty good bullpen. The starters are raising an occasional eyebrows as well.  And the whole team doesn't seem to have a lot of quit in them at the moment.

You're right to suggest it's a small sample size..  but it's growing... and enthusiasm is still high.

[wildcard]

37 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You mean that a team with 50-win true talent is in the midst of an 9-7 run?

How often does a team that you expect to be 5-11 have a 16 game run of 9-7 (or vice versa)?  All the time.  The '19 Orioles won 54 games, and had two overlapping a 16 game runs in July where they went 8-8.  In there was a 10 game period of 7-3.

But if you want to  believe that Tommy Milone is now Warren Spahn and Hanser Alberto is Luke Appling, more power to you.

I don't think there are any Cy Young winners on the O's current staff, but with 15 pitchers on the pitching staff that might not be necessary.   We are talking about a team moving from the 2nd worst in baseball to a little over .500.   Its not hard  to see that this team is better that last year's team.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I don't think there are any Cy Young winners on the O's current staff, but with 15 pitchers on the pitching staff that might not be necessary.   We are talking about a team moving from the 2nd worst in baseball to a little over .500.   Its not hard  to see that this team is better that last year's team.

I do agree that this team is better than last years team.  I didn’t expect the 2020 Orioles to have the #1 pick. I felt it would still be top 5 and maybe top 3 but I didn’t think it would be the worst team in baseball.

Of course, the bar you are using isn’t exactly a high one.

I will say this about the team..I do think there are players on this team that are potential long term pieces and it’s not surprising to see certain guys taking a leap.  I also expect that Cobb and hopefully Means will be good starters.  I don’t really buy the rest of them and I still don’t buy the pen as being good but I do like some of the guys out there.  
 

I’ll still be surprised if the team wins more than 25 games but it’s looking like the team will be drafting more in the 10-15 range as opposed to top 5.

[Moose Milligan]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't see that as a problem for me.   I see it has a problem for everyone that keeps looking at this team is  like they were last year and can't see what is happening right in front of them.

Ok, fine.  I'll grant you the assumption that this is a good team and that they can make the playoffs this year.  

But to think that this franchise is all of a sudden on the upswing because some players who were below average got marginally better or are enjoying career years and outplayed their peripherals is silly.

It's very simple, the 1988 Orioles went 54-107.  The 1989 team, as everyone knows, went 87-57 and went down to the final weekend in the playoff hunt.  1990, they were 76-85.  And in 1991, they slid back even further to 67-95.

While that 1989 team was great and a lot of fun, looking back on it, it's obvious that guys like Bob Milacki, Dave Johnson and Jeff Ballard weren't made for the long haul, that they each had career years.  On a similar note, I'm not a believer that Milone, Wojo and LeBlanc are guys that are all of a sudden having career renaissances and will be good pitchers for years to come.  

So sure, wildcard, they might have a sneaky good year in a season that will allow for a lot of wacky stuff to occur.  Does that mean they can do it again in 2021 over the course of 162 games with the same cast of characters?  

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You mean that a team with 50-win true talent is in the midst of an 9-7 run?

How often does a team that you expect to be 5-11 have a 16 game run of 9-7 (or vice versa)?  All the time.  The '19 Orioles won 54 games, and had two overlapping a 16 game runs in July where they went 8-8.  In there was a 10 game period of 7-3.

But if you want to  believe that Tommy Milone is now Warren Spahn and Hanser Alberto is Luke Appling, more power to you.

Perhaps Milone is the 89 only version of Jeff Ballard. 

Some fun with numbers

rWAR       Pos players    Pitchers 

1988           5.9                  4.8

1989           26.2                10.7

2011         17.4                  4.5

2012          15.4                22.7

2019          8.9                  8.2

 

Eddie 3.2 and Lynn 2.2 were on 88 team. Hemond added Orsulak and Tettleton in 88. Added Milligan, Devo and Phil Bradley to 89 team. Also Brady in Boddicker deal in 88 and Hoiles for Lynn in 88. Neither contributed much to 89 although both of course became major contributors. 

Pretty amazing how well Hemond rebuilt the lineup overnight. 

I would have thought the 12 season the position players would have rated a little better but down the stretch Manny and McLouth were added and Davis stepped up.

 I know baseball reference tweaks their formula from time to time. I didn’t recall the 12 team having that much pitching WAR. Obviously bullpen was unreal. 

Maybe Elias is pulling off a version of what Hemond did over 30 years ago. Solid players off the scrap heap. Elias didn’t have the players to deal that Hemond had either plus players are valued much different. 

[eddie83]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Ok, fine.  I'll grant you the assumption that this is a good team and that they can make the playoffs this year.  

But to think that this franchise is all of a sudden on the upswing because some players who were below average got marginally better or are enjoying career years and outplayed their peripherals is silly.

It's very simple, the 1988 Orioles went 54-107.  The 1989 team, as everyone knows, went 87-57 and went down to the final weekend in the playoff hunt.  1990, they were 76-85.  And in 1991, they slid back even further to 67-95.

While that 1989 team was great and a lot of fun, looking back on it, it's obvious that guys like Bob Milacki, Dave Johnson and Jeff Ballard weren't made for the long haul, that they each had career years.  On a similar note, I'm not a believer that Milone, Wojo and LeBlanc are guys that are all of a sudden having career renaissances and will be good pitchers for years to come.  

So sure, wildcard, they might have a sneaky good year in a season that will allow for a lot of wacky stuff to occur.  Does that mean they can do it again in 2021 over the course of 162 games with the same cast of characters?  

I was working on my post when you sent this. Hard not to see similarities. I do think the pitching is very flawed and the 60 game sprint is the only hope they have. 

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I was working on my post when you sent this. Hard not to see similarities. I do think the pitching is very flawed and the 60 game sprint is the only hope they have. 

I think so, too.

I will say I like the offense, I think that has reasonably improved.  With Mancini, I think we could have a solid (not spectacular) lineup.

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think so, too.

I will say I like the offense, I think that has reasonably improved.  With Mancini, I think we could have a solid (not spectacular) lineup.

Which shocks me with way I felt going into the season. I could see the pen being a little better. If we could get 1/2 position players who could become regulars that would really help out big time. We are still years away so you have to hope these guys are still performing 3/4 years from now.  

AL East was at its all time weakest from about 1988-1991. Balanced schedule back then also is different from now.  

[Number5]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

I don't know about Spahn and Appling...  but our regular position players not named Chris Davis have an average combined OPS that's over .900, and we have what passes for a pretty good bullpen. The starters are raising an occasional eyebrows as well.  And the whole team doesn't seem to have a lot of quit in them at the moment.

You're right to suggest it's a small sample size..  but it's growing... and enthusiasm is still high.

There's a few potential all-stars in there.

[Sports Guy]

To me, if this reasonably continues (and I’m defining reasonably as still missing the playoffs but guys showing that they could be future pieces), does this mean they spend money in the offseason?

I have said that Stroman is probably my #1 target this offseason.

if you enter next year with Stroman, Means and Cobb as your top 3, plus have the myriad of young pitchers behind them and, of course, Hall and GRod, pushing their way up, that puts the team in good shape.

Rutschman is probably in Baltimore around the AS break if he plays at the level they believe he can.

You have Mountcastle and Diaz..if a few of the current guys become regulars, you are starting to put together a solid lineup.  There are still holes, especially at SS but it’s not bad.

I like the BP upside long term as well.

I have felt that 2021 was a year where we could see the team take a big leap.  Not necessarily a legit contender but a 500ish team poised to be a playoff team starting in 2022.  
 

This season, playing out as it did, tempered that enthusiasm for me because I felt a lot of these young players were in crucial development time and many were going to see Baltimore this year.  With that not happening, it made me feel the team was pushed back another year.  
 

That being said, if the team can perform better and the FO and ownership believes in some of these guys (even if it is in a SSS), it could cause them to spend some money and bring in vets that help the team become more respectable quicker.

[ISU94]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

To me, if this reasonably continues (and I’m defining reasonably as still missing the playoffs but guys showing that they could be future pieces), does this mean they spend money in the offseason?

I have said that Stroman is probably my #1 target this offseason.

if you enter next year with Stroman, Means and Cobb as your top 3, plus have the myriad of young pitchers behind them and, of course, Hall and GRod, pushing their way up, that puts the team in good shape.

Rutschman is probably in Baltimore around the AS break if he plays at the level they believe he can.

You have Mountcastle and Diaz..if a few of the current guys become regulars, you are starting to put together a solid lineup.  There are still holes, especially at SS but it’s not bad.

I like the BP upside long term as well.

I have felt that 2021 was a year where we could see the team take a big leap.  Not necessarily a legit contender but a 500ish team poised to be a playoff team starting in 2022.  
 

This season, playing out as it did, tempered that enthusiasm for me because I felt a lot of these young players were in crucial development time and many were going to see Baltimore this year.  With that not happening, it made me feel the team was pushed back another year.  
 

That being said, if the team can perform better and the FO and ownership believes in some of these guys (even if it is in a SSS), it could cause them to spend some money and bring in vets that help the team become more respectable quicker.

I don't see them spending this off-season even if success continues this year.

Gonna see what they have with the young guys the next couple years and reassess imo.