Os system up to 8th according to MLB.com

[Just Regular]

25 games to go, Mountcastle at 37 AB lining up to come down to the wire ala Austin Hays 2019.  He's helping the offseason ranking gathering those walks.

Save 2021 pick 1-X, the core is all in the organization now.  I will be sad if Murph's forecast is right about no Adley next year, though that would be the biggest driver of the Orioles farm pushing towards the very top of these rankings next year, along with an indicator of 2022 being another mostly write off season.

[CallMeBrooksie]

The O's top 30 is deeper than it has been probably in my entire lifetime. No system is going to have 15 top 100 talents. The strength of a system is owed in large part to player development in addition to acquisition... and we have seen big strides in both areas the past couple of years. 

[MCO'sFan]

6 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Looks like the Blue Jays managed to stay in front of us mostly on the shoulders of the Martin draft acquisition 
 

Well, we had a long thread in which I expressed my opinions on that issue. Won't rehash it but it is safe to say that after all the back and forth, neither of us has changed our position. 

[glenn__davis]

26 minutes ago, ISU94 said:

He's only been year for a little under 2 years...how do you expect him to get top 100 prospects outside of the previous regime and 1st round picks that quick?

I don't, and didn't imply that I did.  I just don't think he should be getting sole credit for the ranking as the post I was responding to implied.

[jerios55]

For those asking about PTBNL.  There is a bit more in the article, but this is the meat of it.  Elias hasn't confirmed, but it seems he already knows the players and it would make sense it was part of the trade negotiation.  I think sometimes it can be a list of a few guys and determined later, but that wouldn't make much sense if those guys aren't playing baseball right now.

With no minors, there are no trades for players that aren't on the 60 man pool for 2020.  So I would assume, these players that fall into teams 20+ prospect range that have not been added. 

Based on trades we have seen the ME style and the fact these guys aren't on the 60 man pool, they are likely younger and/or international players.  I personally think these PTBNL will fall into the 20-40 range for us and not necessarily impact the overall ranking much, while still giving us a deeper system (guess it depends if rankings are quality or quantity driven, sure they all vary a bit).  If we find guys that develop in line with the plan, these lower level guys may change that in the future, but we will need to have minor league season to see it. 

Now if a PTBNL ranks 10-15 for us maybe it's different, I just don't know how many of those guys wouldn't be on a 60 man pool right now.

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/08/elias-on-trades-departed-players-and-status-of-rebuild.html

The players to be named later will be revealed after the season and come from outside the 60-man pools.

It’s assumed that Elias already has identified them.

“Those names will be named at the appropriate time,” he said. “Obviously, there are some strange restrictions in place this year. You’re seeing an uptick in player-to-be-named-later trades. I think you can draw your own conclusions about why, but I’m looking forward to naming those mystery players at some point and welcoming them into the organization.”

[jerios55]

59 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

The O's top 30 is deeper than it has been probably in my entire lifetime. No system is going to have 15 top 100 talents. The strength of a system is owed in large part to player development in addition to acquisition... and we have seen big strides in both areas the past couple of years. 

This, combine with my last post makes an interesting thought.  Means wasn't a top 100 guy, but clearly did well.  For every Means, there are a dozen washouts (maybe more, using no math here...).  It goes to a quality/quantity argument, but trading for another teams #10 and it being our #20 is exciting.  Some of the 20-30 will (hopefully) surprise us and have production on par with a top 100. 

Also...below would be nice to see in the future.  Deep enough to trade for talent and still have a solid ranking/top level talent.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-midseason-farm-systems-rankings

3. San Diego Padres
2020 preseason rank: 2
2019 midseason rank: 1
2019 preseason rank: 1
Top 100 Prospects: MacKenzie Gore, LHP (No. 5), CJ Abrams, SS (No. 26), Luis Patiño, RHP (No. 28), Luis Campusano, C (No. 53), Robert Hassell III, OF (No. 84)

No team improved its Major League roster more at the Trade Deadline than the Padres, and they did so while maintaining five of their six Top 100 prospects. And even though the organization did deal seven players from its Top 30 Prospects list (and numerous cost-controlled big leaguers) ahead of Monday’s Trade Deadline, it still has plenty of young, high-ceiling talent in the pipeline.

 

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

The top prospect list is still largely comprised of prospects drafted or otherwise acquired from the previous regime.  Save for Rutchsman and Kjerstad, who were the #1 and #2 picks overall.  

Well, sure, but he’s only been here two years, and his main work has been in behind-the-scenes reshaping of the whole organization. it’s moot to compare the last regime with this one. It’s much more productive to just look at the organization’s improvement overall. He hasn’t made any terrible trades yet( even the Villar trade, in worst-case scenario, wasn’t terrible) he hasn’t had any egregious failures in his signings, and he’s has some really nice successes in Severino, Iglesias and Milone.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

I don't, and didn't imply that I did.  I just don't think he should be getting sole credit for the ranking as the post I was responding to implied.

I just read this, and it renders some of my previous comment moot.

However, a close look at the drafting of the previous regime will reveal some head scratchers. I don’t think that will ever happen with Elias..

Remember that only the previous regime guys were here last spring, when we were unranked. We didn’t crack the ranking until after Elias’ first draft. So even if the quantity rests with the DD days, the quality does not. So giving Elias the lion’s share of credit is valid.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

I just read this, and it renders some of my previous comment moot.

However, a close look at the drafting of the previous regime will reveal some head scratchers. I don’t think that will ever happen with Elias..

Remember that only the previous regime guys were here last spring, when we were unranked. We didn’t crack the ranking until after Elias’ first draft. So even if the quantity rests with the DD days, the quality does not. So giving Elias the lion’s share of credit is valid.

You don't think picking Kjerstad 1-2 qualifies as a head scratcher?

[interloper]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think picking Kjerstad 1-2 qualifies as a head scratcher?

Pete Alonso was a 2nd round pick. There are soooo many bigger headscratchers out there than Kjerstad. 

[glenn__davis]

28 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well, sure, but he’s only been here two years, and his main work has been in behind-the-scenes reshaping of the whole organization. it’s moot to compare the last regime with this one. It’s much more productive to just look at the organization’s improvement overall. He hasn’t made any terrible trades yet( even the Villar trade, in worst-case scenario, wasn’t terrible) he hasn’t had any egregious failures in his signings, and he’s has some really nice successes in Severino, Iglesias and Milone.

Severino, Iglesias and Milone have nothing to do with our prospect ranking.

I have a few minor beefs with Elias but overall I think he's doing a good job.  But no, I do not agree that he gets the lion's share of the credit for our improved system ranking.  The only impact players on list that he brought in were from picking #1 and #2.  That's not a criticism because I agree that he's only been here 2 years, it's just reality.  I guess technically you could give him some credit for Kjerstad since Elias purposely helped in tanking last season.

So maybe instead of taking some credit from Elias, I'm making the argument that a little more credit should be given to Gary Rajisch and the previous regime.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Pete Alonso was a 2nd round pick. There are soooo many bigger headscratchers out there than Kjerstad. 

I don't understand the relevance of your comment.

Someone that was projected to go ~1-10 going 1-2, to me, counts as a head scratcher.  Even if it pans out.

The person I was replying to suggested that Elias won't have any "head scratchers".

 

I will also add that Pete Alonso has put up -.5 rWAR this season.

[Redskins Rick]

My take on this, regardless if we are 5th or 11th.

It seams that Elias is making some right moves.

What was the MIL system before Elias, we were arguing if we was 29th or last?

Got quite a few more holes to fill, the boat appears to be sailing in a positive direction.

 

[CallMeBrooksie]

I'm honestly not satisfied with this ranking. By the time this tank-rebuild is ready to move forward, I expect that the system should be ranked top 3. Stack the deck on the farm so heavily that you can't miss no matter what. Otherwise you put the fans through a half decade of crap baseball for nothing.

I'm still on board with the strategy and I'm not saying that they're behind-schedule... but the farm system has a ways to go still before I'm happy..

[hoosiers]

Agree with sentiments that this is the deepest system since I started my Os fandom - at least 40 years.  The depth is unbelievable.  We have a high draft pick in Adam Hall who has hit at two stops and both our 2020 draft HS $1M bonus babies OUTSIDE our top 15.  There are guys who are very likely to get to the bigs like the recently acquired Nevin outside our top 20.  We have more legit international prospects/investment today than in organization history and only one of these guys are in our top 30 - 30th overall Luis Ortiz.  Add in our PTBNLs and our legit prospects likely total into the 40s.

IMO, the only thing holding back our system from a higher ranking is higher end prospects.  With four in the top 100, we are obviously above average in this area, but one or two more of these guys likely would make us a top three or four system.  Some higher end talent is important, but so is producing league average players who can make the minimum.  Remember, our GM made the choice to grab Kjerstad and two $1M bonus babies instead of Martin - let's see how that pans out.

Lots of quality in our system - now let's develop it and keep the pipeline going.