Mountcastle rookie/prospect eligibility tracker

[Moose Milligan]

41 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He's had a lot of soft contact that has brought down that avg exit velocity. He's been a little lucky I guess when you look that his actual BA, SLG, wOBA and wOBACON have all being higher than his expected versions. 

His 76.7 percentile spring speed has helped him out as well sometimes. More importantly though, his 8.8% barrel rate and 41.8% hard hit% are over the MLB averages of 6.4% and 34.8%, and I think that's more important than average exit velocity. 

His weak % 5.9 (3.4 MLB avg) and Flare/burner% 27.9 (24.3%) are more than MLB avg, so it seems like he hits the ball really hard or flares it, with few inbetween.

This is a good breakdown, specifically the barrel rate and the hard hit %.

[eddie83]

7 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Why?  It impacts almost no one (Gregg Jeffries and... ?) and it would be cool to see someone like Mountcastle get votes in two straight years.

This isn’t a normal year. In a normal year a player like Mountcastle would never even be on the radar for any votes. 

You can be ROY twice?

At end of day it really isn’t a big deal but it makes no sense. 

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

This isn’t a normal year. In a normal year a player like Mountcastle would never even be on the radar for any votes. 

You can be ROY twice?

At end of day it really isn’t a big deal but it makes no sense. 

Probably not, but Gregg Jeffries got a few votes that year he appeared in 29 games.  I suppose technically you could be ROY twice.  Or five times if each of your first four seasons involved homering in all 20 at bats you got... 

In other sports, namely English Premier League Soccer, their version of the ROY is called the Young Player of the Year and I count at least four players who've won it twice.  Framing it that way fixes some of the issues with (for example) foreign players who are 30-year-old MLB rookies with six or eight high level seasons under their belt winning the award, but perhaps creates other problems.

[MurphDogg]

8 games left and he is now at 92 at-bats after getting 3 at-bats in each of the last 3 games (11 plate appearances total). Helps keep the at-bats down when the team can't score any runs.

Would need 38 at-bats over the final 8 games to lose rookie/prospect eligibility.

Mountcastle has only had 5 at-bats in 3 games thus far this season, so the chances of him getting 5 at-bats in 6 of his final 8 games are pretty much non-existent. 

[SteveA]

On 9/17/2020 at 3:18 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

So... some of the best years by someone who appears to have still been a rookie by modern standards the next year:

Gregg Jeffries had a .961 OPS in 29 games in '88, finished 6th in the ROY voting, then played not nearly as well but finished 3rd in the '89 ROY.

 

And Baseball America had put Jeffries on their cover highlighting his "advanced training techniques" as "The Future of Baseball".

And Donruss, one of the Big 3 baseball card companies at the time, deliberately short printed his rookie card so that it became really hard to find and super valuable because of course Jeffries was a future Hall of Famer.  

[Hallas]

On 9/18/2020 at 11:53 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

Probably not, but Gregg Jeffries got a few votes that year he appeared in 29 games.  I suppose technically you could be ROY twice.  Or five times if each of your first four seasons involved homering in all 20 at bats you got... 

In other sports, namely English Premier League Soccer, their version of the ROY is called the Young Player of the Year and I count at least four players who've won it twice.  Framing it that way fixes some of the issues with (for example) foreign players who are 30-year-old MLB rookies with six or eight high level seasons under their belt winning the award, but perhaps creates other problems.

I prefer an age cutoff over following arcane "rookie" rules.  Maybe a mix of the two would be ideal?  How does this sound: Anyone under 25 and hasn't won the award before is eligible.  For people 25+, current rules apply with the exception that players coming from KBO/NPB/other international top level leagues aren't eligible.

[Can_of_corn]

I think what while a RoY is a great big deal for the player that wins, in the grand scheme of things it is a very small deal.

I'd rather not fiddle with it, I just don't see the need.  If someone eventually wins two, big woop.

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think what while a RoY is a great big deal for the player that wins, in the grand scheme of things it is a very small deal.

I'd rather not fiddle with it, I just don't see the need.  If someone eventually wins two, big woop.

Curt (clank) Blefary says hi

[DrungoHazewood]

On 9/19/2020 at 7:03 PM, Can_of_corn said:

I think what while a RoY is a great big deal for the player that wins, in the grand scheme of things it is a very small deal.

I'd rather not fiddle with it, I just don't see the need.  If someone eventually wins two, big woop.

Not that this is really a problem, but the bigger issue to me is players being ROY despite having played high level baseball for many years in places like Japan.

But if you're an originalist maybe this isn't a problem since Jackie Robinson had been a major league caliber player for years before his debut where he won the original award.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 9/19/2020 at 3:47 PM, SteveA said:

And Baseball America had put Jeffries on their cover highlighting his "advanced training techniques" as "The Future of Baseball".

And Donruss, one of the Big 3 baseball card companies at the time, deliberately short printed his rookie card so that it became really hard to find and super valuable because of course Jeffries was a future Hall of Famer.  

Yep, he was one of the more hyped rookies of all time.  At least on par with Ben McDonald's treatment a few years later.

That was when the baseball card bubble started getting ridiculous.  I had a friend down the street whose Dad bought him dozens of full sets of cards each year in the late 80s, I guess as an investment.  I was quite jealous.  According to a quick Google search the 1988 Donruss Jeffries card is now worth $0.34 in mint condition.

[bobmc]

On 9/19/2020 at 8:08 PM, AnythingO's said:

Curt (clank) Blefary says hi

Which prods the question - "Do we have a nickname for DJ Stewart other than Babe?  I can think of reasons to use adjectives for his D.  Perhaps "Boing"?  Balls seem to bounce off his body and glove more robustly than a clank.

[Spy Fox]

Mountcastle will retain his rookie eligibility next year, having finished the season with 140 PAs but 126 ABs, leaving him four ABs shy of the 130 AB rookie threshold. 

Also, Austin Hays finished with 134 PAs but 122 ABs, leaving him eight ABs shy of 130— I'm not sure, will he still be a rookie next year as well? Or was he technically on the MLB roster for 45 days pre-September? (I'm not sure how this works with the IL and the shortened season.)

 

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Mountcastle will retain his rookie eligibility next year, having finished the season with 140 PAs but 126 ABs, leaving him four ABs shy of the 130 AB rookie threshold. 

Also, Austin Hays finished with 134 PAs but 122 ABs, leaving him eight ABs shy of 130— I'm not sure, will he still be a rookie next year as well? Or was he technically on the MLB roster for 45 days pre-September? (I'm not sure how this works with the IL and the shortened season.)

Nah, it is 130 at-bats cumulatively and Hays had 128 at-bats coming into this season. Hays lost his rookie eligibility in his first game played this year.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Spy Fox said:

Mountcastle will retain his rookie eligibility next year, having finished the season with 140 PAs but 126 ABs, leaving him four ABs shy of the 130 AB rookie threshold. 

Also, Austin Hays finished with 134 PAs but 122 ABs, leaving him eight ABs shy of 130— I'm not sure, will he still be a rookie next year as well? Or was he technically on the MLB roster for 45 days pre-September? (I'm not sure how this works with the IL and the shortened season.)

 

Hays fell just short last season.  He has lost his rookie status.

Quite the coincidence that the O's just happen to have guys fall just short two years in a row.  Just their good luck that they will still be eligible for those offseason prospect rankings.

 

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hays fell just short last season.  He has lost his rookie status.

Quite the coincidence that the O's just happen to have guys fall just short two years in a row.  Just their good luck that they will still be eligible for those offseason prospect rankings.

If it weren't for the 7 inning double-headers and the new extra innings rule, Mountcastle might have gotten those 4 extra ABs.