Tracking Ex Oriole Thread

[DrungoHazewood]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/10-best-mlb-right-fielders-of-decade

Nick at no. 6 for best RFers of the decade.    Love this quote: “Your team is always a little better if it has Markakis on it, and that’ll be as true in season 15 as it was in season one.”     

Adam Jones ranked no. 3 in CF, Manny Machado no. 5 at 3B, Matt Wieters no. 8 at C.   Davis, Schoop and Hardy all missed the cut (yes, Davis was good once).

https://www.mlb.com/news/10-best-mlb-center-fielders-of-decade

https://www.mlb.com/news/10-best-third-basemen-of-the-2010s

https://www.mlb.com/news/10-best-catchers-of-the-2010s

We're in a pretty darned good era for third basemen.  Manny is 5th in the 2010s in rWAR and he has about a 75% chance of going to the Hall.  Beltre is in.  Arenado is about on the same track as Manny. Donaldson didn't have his first full season until 27, but was as good as the others.  And Longoria looks past peak, but he could retire among the top 15 third basemen of all time.  There are only 15 or 16 HOF third baseman, and that includes Kell, Traynor, and Lindstrom who have already been passed by all the current guys I just mentioned.

[DrungoHazewood]

Not to go too far afield, but third base is a strange position.  All of the top 10 played since WWII.  And it's not even really controversial.  Home Run Baker has a semi-decent case for being #10 if you make Edgar and Molitor DHs.  But that's it.  No one else is even remotely plausible for the top 10 who played prior to the war.

When Eddie Mathews was a rookie the all time record for homers by a third baseman was 178 by Harlond Clift.  Mathews finished with 512.

There's a good chance that Longoria, Beltre, Machado, Arenado, and Donaldson will end up all being better than just about everyone from the first 75 years of MLB history.

[Number5]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Not to go too far afield, but third base is a strange position.  All of the top 10 played since WWII.  And it's not even really controversial.  Home Run Baker has a semi-decent case for being #10 if you make Edgar and Molitor DHs.  But that's it.  No one else is even remotely plausible for the top 10 who played prior to the war.

When Eddie Mathews was a rookie the all time record for homers by a third baseman was 178 by Harlond Clift.  Mathews finished with 512.

There's a good chance that Longoria, Beltre, Machado, Arenado, and Donaldson will end up all being better than just about everyone from the first 75 years of MLB history.

Pie Traynor?

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

Pie Traynor?

I think he was the beneficiary of the fact there were no great third basemen before Mathews.  So when people wrote books or articles on the greatest player at each position somebody had to be the third baseman, so they gave it to the guy who hit .320.  Him or Jimmy Collins, but Collins played half his career in the 1800s, and even in 1950 that seemed like a long time ago.

But hitting .320 in 1920-1940 was kind of like hitting .280 today.  He hit a good, solid 6 homers a year and walked 37 times.  And at least by modern figuring he wasn't a great fielder.  Career OPS+ of 107, peak of 124 (which is pretty close to Machado and Arenado's career marks).  Led the league in games once, triples once, and sac hits twice.  

By JAWS Traynor is the 61st-best third baseman of all time.  26 spots behind Doug DeCinces.

[TonySoprano]

https://www.mlb.com/video/intentional-talk-adam-jones?t=mlb-network

[atomic]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

atomic said, ad nauseum, that Manny was worth roughly a 4/50 deal and anyone who'd go over that was on hard-core hallucenogenic drugs.  I may be paraphrasing.

It was a lot more than that.  But that contract will end in tears. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 6/11/2019 at 3:59 PM, atomic said:

Hosmer, Will Myers and Machado have combined for 1 WAR.  A lot of money spent with little to show for it. 

This is quite disingenuous as Machado represents the lion's share of that 1 WAR (assuming you are using rWAR based on numbers; conclusion is the same with fWAR).

[atomic]

7 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

This is quite disingenuous as Machado represents the lion's share of that 1 WAR (assuming you are using rWAR based on numbers; conclusion is the same with fWAR).

He has 0.7 WAR and Hosmer has 0.3 WAR.  I am not sure what is disingenuous about that.  It's not like I am pairing him with Chris Davis and saying wow combined they have negative WAR.  He is hitting .238.  He is struggling to say the least.

[atomic]

6 hours ago, vatech1994 said:

I wouldn’t have spent anywhere near the amount that Manny and Harper got in those contracts, but I certainly wasn’t surprised they both got paid that much.  Then again, I begged us not to sign Chris Davis when he was hitting the hell out of the ball that last season.  None of these three guys look like the types that age particularly well and the contracts are crazy long.

Unless you have a year in, year out performance like Trout I wouldn't give you $320 million dollar contract.  Obviously these deals will turn out to be heart breakers for the clubs and their fans. 

[Sessh]

Machado is slugging .397 on the year, .343 over the last month, 228 over the last two weeks and .286 over the last week. Only two home runs in the last 30 days and hitting .140 over the last two weeks. I sure am glad we dodged that bullet. So far, seems like a guy that got his money and is going to take it easy for awhile now. It's only year one, but damn is that pathetic. He's doing a great imitation of Chris Davis these last couple weeks with his .462 OPS and all. At least Harper has been solid so far for the Phillies.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, vatech1994 said:

I wouldn’t have spent anywhere near the amount that Manny and Harper got in those contracts, but I certainly wasn’t surprised they both got paid that much.  Then again, I begged us not to sign Chris Davis when he was hitting the hell out of the ball that last season.  None of these three guys look like the types that age particularly well and the contracts are crazy long.

Plus defenders with room to move down the defensive spectrum age as well as anybody.  That does not describe Davis or Harper. 

[DrungoHazewood]

8 hours ago, Sessh said:

Machado is slugging .397 on the year, .343 over the last month, 228 over the last two weeks and .286 over the last week. Only two home runs in the last 30 days and hitting .140 over the last two weeks. I sure am glad we dodged that bullet. So far, seems like a guy that got his money and is going to take it easy for awhile now. It's only year one, but damn is that pathetic. He's doing a great imitation of Chris Davis these last couple weeks with his .462 OPS and all. At least Harper has been solid so far for the Phillies.

That's a comically early reading of Manny's performance, attitude and contract.  You've just indicted a 10-year deal on the basis of three weeks.  Literally three weeks ago he was OPSing .815 in a pretty extreme pitcher's park.

Oh, and even with the brief slump Manny has been as valuable as Harper this year.

[Sessh]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That's a comically early reading of Manny's performance, attitude and contract.  You've just indicted a 10-year deal on the basis of three weeks.  Literally three weeks ago he was OPSing .815 in a pretty extreme pitcher's park.

Oh, and even with the brief slump Manny has been as valuable as Harper this year.

Machado

wRC+: 95

90 - Mar/Apr
122 - May
35 - Jun

WAR: 1.0
OPS+: 95

Harper

wRC+: 114

128 - Mar/Apr
111 - May
84 - Jul

WAR: 1.8
OPS+: 113

Yes, it's an early reading of his performance with his new team and I even stated so in the post. So what? He hasn't been "just as valuable" as Harper this year so far. He's been below average in two months compared to Harper's one and Harper's WAR is almost twice as high as Mannys. So no, he hasn't been just as valuable. Harper has been almost twice as valuable if we're going by WAR.

I said things like "so far" and "I know this is just the first year" which is hardly indicting a 10 year deal on the basis of three weeks or even three months. I don't like any 10 year deal because they rarely ever work out for the team, so the odds are that any such deal indicts itself eventually regardless of who the player is including Harper. My general feelings about 10 year deals are based on the history of 10 year deals. Not "three weeks" or months. Even reading my post again, I fail to see how that is indicting an entire 10 year deal based on three weeks.

I also know what I think of Manny's attitude and performance because he played here for years and saw some of the bush league "step on the first baseman's ankle" and "I don't hustle" stuff he did last year with the Dodgers which has not changed my opinion of him. On many levels, it's not "early" at all. He's not a below average player, but has a below average attitude which was clearly visible while he was here.

[Frobby]

On 6/13/2019 at 12:14 AM, atomic said:

He has 0.7 WAR and Hosmer has 0.3 WAR.  I am not sure what is disingenuous about that.  It's not like I am pairing him with Chris Davis and saying wow combined they have negative WAR.  He is hitting .238.  He is struggling to say the least.

I think his rWAR was over 1.5 at one point.    This is a protracted slump.   .537 OPS over the last 22 games.   Yes, I’d call that struggling.   

[Moose Milligan]

Bummer to see Manny struggling.  I wanted to see him do well this year and the Padres, too.  IIRC they were in 2nd a few weeks ago, now they seem to be slipping.