The 2021 Bullpen

[sportsfan8703]

It’s not looking too bad, and appears it could be a strength. A lot has to do with if they actually play 162 games, and what the roster size will be. 

Let’s assume an 8 man pen

RH: Harvey, Armstrong, Tate, Phillips, Valdez, Lakins/Eshelman/Sulser/etc....

LH:  Scott, Fry

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s not looking too bad, and appears it could be a strength. A lot has to do with if they actually play 162 games, and what the roster size will be. 

Let’s assume an 8 man pen

RH: Harvey, Armstrong, Tate, Phillips, Valdez, Lakins/Eshelman/Sulser/etc....

LH:  Scott, Fry

Will they offer Armstrong arbitration?

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Will they offer Armstrong arbitration?

Forgot about that. Will we offer/pay anyone arbitration?

[Moose Milligan]

Tate looks good, @Can_of_corn

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Will they offer Armstrong arbitration?

They won’t have to.  In other words, they can probably get him to sign a very cheap deal if they want to keep him, which they should.

I would guess he signs for around 1M, give or take.

[wildcard]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They won’t have to.  In other words, they can probably get him to sign a very cheap deal if they want to keep him, which they should.

I would guess he signs for around 1M, give or take.

I think the O's offer 600K.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Forgot about that. Will we offer/pay anyone arbitration?

Mancini, Santander and Severino will be offer arbitration or sign one year deals before the offer is due.

[oriole]

It wouldn’t surprise me to see someone like Zimmerman or Wells to be tried out in the bullpen next year. Along with Pop if he is healthy. Depending on how things go in the rotation we could see Lopez (if he returns), Kremer, or even Akin too. Considering they’re all projected to be back of the rotation type guys then a move to the bullpen is the next step if they struggle or if there’s a need. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Will they offer Armstrong arbitration?

 

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

They won’t have to.  In other words, they can probably get him to sign a very cheap deal if they want to keep him, which they should.

I would guess he signs for around 1M, give or take.

 

54 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's offer 600K.

This season Bleier and Castro were both arbitration eligible for the first time.    Bleier got $915 k, Castro got $1.05 mm.   My guess is Armstrong would get in that ballpark.    But with the short season and changed economics, it’s really anyone’s guess what this winter’s market will look like.   It’s certainly possible that guys like Armstrong will get less than they historically would.    

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Tate looks good, @Can_of_corn

He does.

[Aristotelian]

The bullpen has been solid but I would be concerned about depth. If something should happen to Harvey there's not a lot after him. I love watching Valdez pitch but who knows how long his arm will last or what happens when the league has a chance to figure him out. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

The bullpen has been solid but I would be concerned about depth. If something should happen to Harvey there's not a lot after him. I love watching Valdez pitch but who knows how long his arm will last or what happens when the league has a chance to figure him out. 

The Os have a lot of young arms..some will fizzle out, some will be starters and others will be relievers.

Not worried about Elias being able to find your 6th-8th members of the pen.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

 

This season Bleier and Castro were both arbitration eligible for the first time.    Bleier got $915 k, Castro got $1.05 mm.   My guess is Armstrong would get in that ballpark.    But with the short season and changed economics, it’s really anyone’s guess what this winter’s market will look like.   It’s certainly possible that guys like Armstrong will get less than they historically would.    

One of the other factors is that the O's have a lot of cheap pitchers. Here are 20 pitchers that will be making close to  the minimum:

 Kremer,  Akin, Lopez, Fulmer, Stewart, Zimmerman, Baumann,  Lowther,  Harvey,  Scott, Tate, Fry, Lakins,  Valdez, Pop, Eshelman, Mattson, Phillips, Kline, and Sulser.

And with the roster going to 26 players they will probably only carry 13 pitchers most of the season.

Why should they pay more for Armstrong when he will be out of options, 30 years old and is coming off an injured back?

[Just Regular]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Let’s assume an 8 man pen

RH: Harvey, Armstrong, Tate, Phillips, Valdez, Lakins/Eshelman/Sulser/etc....

LH:  Scott, Fry

Certainly hope Zimmermann, Lowther and Smith push into middle distance once through the order roles, and we start getting the Jorge Lopezes of the world out of the 5th inning of 1-1 or 2-2 games, at least sometimes.

Alex Cobb's offseason homework is to visualize that happening when he finishes facing 18 batters in April, and comport himself well when it happens to model adulting for the younger pitchers.

I appreciate that when Player Development > Maximizing MLB wins you might let Lopez try Conforto thrice, but results like these aren't just noise:

Times Facing Opponent in Game

• Glossary

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1st PA in G, as SP	5	45	45	2	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	12		.200	.200	.222	.422	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	.273	15	19
2nd PA in G, as SP	5	45	37	6	10	2	0	2	0	0	6	7	1.17	.270	.386	.486	.873	18	2	1	1	0	0	1	.286	136	130
3rd PA in G, as SP	5	24	21	6	6	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	0.00	.286	.333	.714	1.048	15	1	0	0	1	0	0	.158	174	169

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, wildcard said:

One of the other factors is that the O's have a lot of cheap pitchers. Here are 20 pitchers that will be making close to  the minimum:

 Kremer,  Akin, Lopez, Fulmer, Stewart, Zimmerman, Baumann,  Lowther,  Harvey,  Scott, Tate, Fry, Lakins,  Valdez, Pop, Eshelman, Mattson, Phillips, Kline, and Sulser.

And with the roster going to 26 players they will probably only carry 13 pitchers most of the season.

Why should they pay more for Armstrong when he will be out of options, 30 years old and is coming off an injured back?

It’s a very fair question, and maybe they won’t seek to retain Armstrong.   As to your list:

Akin, Kremer and Lopez are probably penciled into the rotation so not relevant.   

Baumann, Lowther, Pop and Mattson haven’t pitched in the majors and only Mattson has even limited AAA experience.    I would not expect any of them to be on the OD roster next year.   They certainly might make the majors at some point during the season.

That leaves 13 guys vying for 8 spots.  Those come down to an argument about who is better than who and who fills what role.  I don’t have time to think too hard about that right now, but it’s worth considering.    I’d certainly say that Harvey, Scott, Tate and maybe Valdez are guys I’d expect to fill four slots, so that leaves 9 guys for the other four.