Any chance that the O’s are in on Ha-Seong Kim

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Like I've said before, I don't buy that was really the reason the two coaches were let go either, but we will know for sure after we see how Elias handles his arbitration eligible players.

A lot hinges on whether Davis finally retires or perhaps DFA’d. I’m hoping he retires after his off season personal evaluation as he mentioned last offseason.

[weams]

I wish to clarify.  I meant off season acquisitions.  I believe to Orioles will retain Iglesias. I have no idea how low of an offer the Union will allow Trey to take.  I’m concerned about the Orioles paying him. Davis and Cobb are sunk costs. 

[DrungoHazewood]

Nobody has really commented on what kind of player this guy is.  This past year he finished 9th in the KBO in OPS at .940.  He played on a Kiwoom team that scored/allowed about 5.00 runs a game.  The KBO overall scored 5.17 runs/game and had a .273/.349/.410 slash line.  As a comparison the majors had a .245/.322/.418 line and scored 4.65 runs/game , so a bit more power in the majors, but a much higher average in the KBO and a half a run more per game. 

If I had to guess I'd say the average talent level in the KBO is AA-ish, but with a wider spread in talent.  Some A ball players, and a handful of pretty good MLB players.

Our old friend Hyun-Soo Kim had a similar performance to this guy, hitting .337/.399/.530.  He's 32, Ha-Seong Kim is 24.

Mel Rojas was the best hitter in the league, OPSing 1.099 with 45 homers.  He's never played in the majors, but his AA/AAA OPS is about .740.  Preston Tucker OPS'd .684 in 651 PAs for the Braves, Astros, and Reds, and last year for the Kia Tigers hit .300/.394/.553/.947.  Jose Miguel Fernandez had a .697 OPS in a brief trial with the Angels in '18, he had a .904 OPS for Doosan in '20.

My guess is that Ha-Seong Kim would be about a .700 OPS hitter in the majors, with some growth potential because he's just 24.

[jamalshw]

As others have said, the answer is: no.

If we were talking about an Ohtani scenario where we would basically be trying to add a Major League ready, top prospect and maintain that type of control, we would (and should) be all in. In this scenario, however, we don't have enough proof that he's a good enough player to warrant spending in a season about growing young players and cutting costs as much as possible.

In a couple years if a similar player is available we may jump in.

[LookinUp]

33 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

As others have said, the answer is: no.

If we were talking about an Ohtani scenario where we would basically be trying to add a Major League ready, top prospect and maintain that type of control, we would (and should) be all in. In this scenario, however, we don't have enough proof that he's a good enough player to warrant spending in a season about growing young players and cutting costs as much as possible.

In a couple years if a similar player is available we may jump in.

To be clear, I agree with the above post, but...

If the O's have scouts/metrics on this guy, and if those scouts/metrics project much better results than Drungo's back of the envelope projections, and if ownership really does support Elias' rebuild plan, then I could see Elias thinking now is a decent time to go after this player. Basically 1 year earlier than ideal, IMO.

I get the argument that it's early in the rebuild. I'm not sure I agree with anyone who says we shouldn't because have other guys in the system, just because those guys seem pretty far away, which means their risks are still high. 

So I also don't think it'll happen, but I actually think there is a small chance it does.

[jerios55]

44 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

To be clear, I agree with the above post, but...

If the O's have scouts/metrics on this guy, and if those scouts/metrics project much better results than Drungo's back of the envelope projections, and if ownership really does support Elias' rebuild plan, then I could see Elias thinking now is a decent time to go after this player. Basically 1 year earlier than ideal, IMO.

I get the argument that it's early in the rebuild. I'm not sure I agree with anyone who says we shouldn't because have other guys in the system, just because those guys seem pretty far away, which means their risks are still high. 

So I also don't think it'll happen, but I actually think there is a small chance it does.

I do think most probably agree that it won't happen.

For me, if they don't, I hope it's more that they don't see a massively different assessment from Drungo's and decide it doesn't make sense. 

Of course if they don't try (or no articles mention at least interest) we'll never know why they didn't go after him.

[Tony-OH]

I would say the fact that the Orioles have not already announced that they have exercised their option on Jose Iglesias is a bit of a concern. With no other every day SS ready from within the system, if the Orioles don't exercise Iglesias' option means they are in total tear it down financially mode and bringing in anyone won't happen.

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I would say the fact that the Orioles have not already announced that they have exercised their option on Jose Iglesias is a bit of a concern. With no other every day SS ready from within the system, if the Orioles don't exercise Iglesias' option means they are in total tear it down financially mode and bringing in anyone won't happen.

Unless they're trying to pull off a massive trade.

Just playing devil's advocate. There are several possibilities, but you're right that there's unfortunately a big chance that our owners are mandating massive cost cutting because of Covid.

[murph]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I would say the fact that the Orioles have not already announced that they have exercised their option on Jose Iglesias is a bit of a concern. With no other every day SS ready from within the system, if the Orioles don't exercise Iglesias' option means they are in total tear it down financially mode and bringing in anyone won't happen.

And if they don't exercise the option and sell it as a cost of Covid and no fans, does it really mean they are getting the team ready to be sold?   Could that possibly be the real reason for the spending concerns? 

[murph]

On 10/16/2020 at 8:41 PM, tarheeloriole said:

How much do you think he ends up signing for? If its in our range somehow, I think we should go for it. I've never watched the KBO so I can't attest to the pitching but the guy has a great swing and as long as he can adjust I think the power will play. The guy is electric

 

Nice quick bat flip at 0:21, quick hands on the swing and the flip!

[hoosiers]

On 10/16/2020 at 8:25 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

I just can't understand the massive pressure the O's are under to cut payroll.  I believe their payroll is either 29th or 30th in the majors.  The only major contracts they have for 2021 are Davis $23 mill and Cobb $15 mill.  That's $38 mill total on the books.

It gets better for the O's.  $7 mill of Davis's salary for 2021 and $4.5 mill of Cobb's salary for 2021 are deferred.  That's only $26.5 mill on the books.  From cot's baseball contracts: 

if Cobb does not pitch 130 innings in 2020, an additional $5.5M of 2021 salary is deferred, to be paid $1.75M annually each 11/30, 2033-35

So, that's a total of $21 million on the books for next year.  Please someone explain how the O's are in a finiancial bind with all the national TV money, licensing money, internet fees, local TV money, money redistributed for small markets, without even counting any money from in person attendance. 

A case can be made that some of the clubs who are near the luxury tax and don't have huge revenue streams like the Yankees and Dodgers could have cashflow problems, but I can't see any reason the O's would.

 

 

There are other costs involved in running a major league baseball team than just the players' salaries and those costs are substantial.  MLB has deferred most of the signing bonuses of the 2020 draft picks and likely 2021 draftees as well.  Of course, all of this deferred $ is paid out in 2022 - likely at least $23M+ to be paid in 2022 - hardly chump change.  I do not expect Cobb's $5M to be deferred.  In ballpark numbers, Cobb's 2020 innings pitched of 52.1, when pro-rated over a full season, would be sufficient to not trigger the deferral clause over a normal season - so your $21M is really $26M - that's just for a couple of players.

The bigger issue with the business picture is on the revenue side.  We don't know what kind of 2021 season will be played, how many games, etc.  Until that time, the Os - like most businesses in that situation - would probably run budgets based on various levels of games played/revenue, but would most likely plan  to follow a less risky, leaning toward worst case scenario.  

The Os are not alone in MLB with this uncertainty.  My neighbor's son was a lowly intern for the Angels and that front office was gutted by their billionaire owner including scouts BEFORE the 2020 draft.  

All that said, it would not be shocking if the Os were run at a profit in 2020 or 2021.  I would not fault them for that and would also note that the Os are at the point in a rebuilding process where payroll is generally kept lower and  long term investments in free agents are rarely made.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, murph said:

And if they don't exercise the option and sell it as a cost of Covid and no fans, does it really mean they are getting the team ready to be sold?   Could that possibly be the real reason for the spending concerns? 

Certainly could be. Although publicly they've stated they have no intention of selling the team, every other team had the same COVID restrictions and suffered the same losses. If they are now making coaching decisions based off a money (individual coaching salaries rarely go over $200k a year), it certainly has to be under consideration that the team is being dismantled to the bare bones for potential sale.

I don't know one way or the other, but I do think we'll know more by how they treat Iglesias and their arbitration eligible players. 

[LookinUp]

On Iglesias, is there any hurry to exercise the option? I'd figure you usually wait on that stuff until you have to act just in case something else comes up.

[joelala]

34 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

On Iglesias, is there any hurry to exercise the option? I'd figure you usually wait on that stuff until you have to act just in case something else comes up.

That’s what I assumed as well. When is the deadline to excercise it, and have other clubs already announced any options they’ve picked up?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, joelala said:

That’s what I assumed as well. When is the deadline to excercise it, and have other clubs already announced any options they’ve picked up?

Usually it’s a few days after the World Series ends.