Trade Bait 2021

[ScGO's]

Around November of last year, I posted a "Trade Bait 2020" thread that was fun to track through out the year since a large part of rebuilding is trading off older assets or players with 2-3+ years of service time who may be at "peak value." 

I am excited about this potential list as well as these players could potentially bring back more quality young and controllable pieces for the futures. I'm not saying all these players should or will be traded, but if I was Elias, these are the players I am going into the season monitoring with an eye towards swinging for a return of more young talent if they do perform.

1. Alex Cobb - Everything depends on Cobb being healthy and putting up decent numbers.  He can probably maintain some value as long as he keep his ERA under 5.00 and average 5-6 IP per start. If he performs at his highest level, we can probably get an organizational top 10

2. Trey Mancini - If he can get back to an .850+ OPS and prove he is back to full health, trading Trey could bring back a solid package of prospects.  This trade doesn't need to be forced by Elias; more or less, he just needs to see if the offers are there.  If multiple teams are desperate to add a big bat, let them bid against one another and see if you can pry a top 100 prospect.

3. Pedro Severino - He is 27 years old; if there is going to be a break out season, it will be this year.  Even if he is a .700+ OPS Catcher, he could create some value for a playoff team needing depth behind the plate.  With AR arriving soon, now is the time to shop Pedro.  I don't expect a huge return; maybe a top 20-30 organizational prospect and a lottery ticket.

4. Anthony Santander - No rush to push Anthony either as he only has 2 years of service. However, with a lot of OF depth in the system, Anthony could reach peak value this season and bring back a very strong return if he can put up a .850+ season with solid defense.  I believe he has the potential to bring back a top 100 prospect, or two organizational top 10 prospects.

5. John Means - Much like Santander, there is no rush to trade Means, but again, with a lot of pitching prospects on the rise, if Means reaches peak value this season, he too could bring back a top 100 prospects or multiple top 10 organizational prospects.  I saw the physical changes Means made in 2020, so if he can put it all together in 2021, it will be hard not to listen to offers.

6. Chance Sisco - He has shown flashes of OBP skills and pop, but the bat to ball skills haven't caught up yet.  He will have the opportunity to establish value this season again, and with AR coming, Elias needs to figure out if Sisco has any value for the O's in the future in some capacity outside of starting Catcher.  He's only 26 and has just 2 years of service. I still think he should take reps at 3B and see if he can push Ruiz.  Definitely a wildcard here as there may be no value in the long run if he falters this year.

7. Pat Valaika - 3 years service time and age 28. If he can push an .800 OPS and continue to exhibit versatility, he could become a piece for playoff team needing bench depth. He he is not a long term piece, so to get a top 30 org prospect in return would be awesome.

8. Shawn Armstrong - On the wrong side of 30 and with 3 years of service time, Armstrong could be a solid trade candidate if he can build on his 2020 success.  With 3 years of service he could be appealing to playoff contenders as he is controllable for multiple seasons. Maybe he can get a return similar to what Miguel Castro got us this year.

9. Tanner Scott and Paul Fry - These two LH Relievers have only 2 years of service time, but again, with a lot of pitching depth in the system, these two could reach peak value this season and if the return can be similar or better than what we got for Castro or Givens, it might be time to pull the trigger.

10. Rio Ruiz and DJ Stewart - Both are 27, Ruiz has 2 years of service and Stewart 1, and neither has any trade value at the moment.  The tools and opportunities are there to build more potential value this season.  No reason to push for a trade unless they perform, but if they can show improvements, it may be worth drumming up some interest as they may not have a place in the long term plans. Both of these guys could also flop and be off the 40 man before June too.

11. Yolmer Sanchez - If he wins the 2B job and shows the Gold Glove defense and can push the .700 OPS, he may be able to draw some interest from a playoff contender looking for infield depth.  I don't expect a large return, but something is better than nothing for a player who will be 29 and in his 6th year of service.

12. Cesar Valdez, Cole Sulser, Travis Lakins, Fernado Abad - Maybe one of these older, less heralded relievers can strum up some value.  Right now, there is no value here, but If Valdez can repeat his 2020, Sulser can get back to the reliever he was in the beginning of last season, Lakins and improve on his peripheral statistics, or Abad can be an above average LH reliever, we may be able to snag a lottery ticket or PTBNL.

13. Unknown FA - There has been talk of adding a couple veterans on 1 year deals.  Perhaps Elias adds someone similar to a Tommy Millone or pulls the trigger on a Puig or Schwarber with the intent to swing them at the All Star Break if they perform.

 

 

 

 

[jabba72]

I think Means is probably the most valuable player on this list and would be hesitant to trade any prospect for him. Prospects are just that, no guarantee they turn out to be good players, which is what Means already is. Rest of this list is meh. Not alot of impact trade material here. Other than Cobb, who im guessing will be dealt if a market ever develops for him.  

[wildcard]

1.  Cobb -  Hard to talk about him without mentioning his contract and how it effects his trade value.

2. Mancini - Optimal time to trade him will be in July if he shows he is healthy and productive.   Some team may pay up for him with two pennant races remaining.

4, 5 and 9. -  Means, Santander and Scott.  I think we should remember that Elias is trying to build a winning team.  The O's may look to jump to being a winning team in 2022.  These three can be a part of that.   Elias would have to be blown away by offers to trade these three IMO.  I think that is unlikely in 2021.

11. Sanchez - Will be a FA after the season.  If someone offers a  good prospect for him he will be traded.

12. Lakins - How old do you think this guy is?  He is 26.

[HowAboutThat]

Sisco, Valiaka, Ruiz, Stewart have no value.

Edited December 19, 2020 by Philip

[Aristotelian]

I would not call Means "trade bait" in the sense that we should be looking to move him. He has many years left of team control and could be a #2-#3 of a contending team. Sure we should listen to offers but you could say the same for Rutschman and Mountcastle. 

Guys I actually expect to see traded are Mancini and Cobb but both need to be healthy and productive. I am listening to offers on Santander but I am not in any rush to move him.

In his recent Zoom interview Elias said they were happy with the return on Iglesias and like that "model", so unknown FA is a strong possibility.

If Valdez continues to be good he could be a sneaky piece, but then again I might be greedy and tempted to keep him.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Sisco, Valiaka, Ruiz, Stewart have no value.

almost none of these guys have value.

[HowAboutThat]

One important question that I think most of these articles miss is the consideration of how much an equivalent player would cost on the open market. Valaika, Sisco, possibly Severino, Stewart, Ruiz, are so close to replacement level that it’s doubtful that any team would give much beyond cash or a non-prospect Tyler Herb kind of guy for them. I’m actually unsure some of these guys will be around come April even if they aren’t traded.

[BirdinBama]

Call me sentimental, but I would hate to trade Mancini after all he has been through. I know, everyone is available for the right offer...blah, blah, blah.

[Can_of_corn]

27 minutes ago, BirdinBama said:

Call me sentimental, but I would hate to trade Mancini after all he has been through. I know, everyone is available for the right offer...blah, blah, blah.

Are you interested in signing him to a long term deal?

 

[Roll Tide]

On 12/19/2020 at 3:04 PM, Philip said:

Sisco, Valiaka, Ruiz, Stewart have no value.

Valaika would depend on him following up last seasons success. 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, BirdinBama said:

Call me sentimental, but I would hate to trade Mancini after all he has been through. I know, everyone is available for the right offer...blah, blah, blah.

He won’t be treated now, and sentimentality has nothing to do with it. He just spent a year battling cancer, nobody’s going to trade anything for him. He’s a great success story. How many 491st draft picks do as well as he has

[HowAboutThat]

44 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Valaika would depend on him following up last seasons success. 

Maybe, but I’m not so sure. I like the guy, and every team should have at least one Viking, but I’m not sure that he has anything that isn’t easily replaceable at the replacement depot.

[wildcard]

Valaika is coming off a season with a 791 OPS.  If he gets the at bats and puts up similar numbers he will probably be tradable  with a  prospect return by the trade deadline.

If Mancini puts up a 850 OPS or better at the deadline a contending team that needs an offensive boost will offer something good for him.  Contending teams always look for good players to get deep in the playoffs. Him being under team control for two pennant races adds to his value. Someone will take the risk that he will stay healthy for 15 months through the 2022 season.

Elias is still collecting talent for the 2022- 2028 seasons.

[jabba72]

15 hours ago, wildcard said:

Valaika is coming off a season with a 791 OPS.  If he gets the at bats and puts up similar numbers he will probably be tradable  with a  prospect return by the trade deadline.

If Mancini puts up a 850 OPS or better at the deadline a contending team that needs an offensive boost will offer something good for him.  Contending teams always look for good players to get deep in the playoffs. Him being under team control for two pennant races adds to his value. Someone will take the risk that he will stay healthy for 15 months through the 2022 season.

Elias is still collecting talent for the 2022- 2028 seasons.

Valaika was also a team worse -6 in Outs above average playing primarily at 2B and SS, so im not sure what trade value he has with that kind of defense. My guess is very little trade value even if he has another .791 OPS season. 

[jamalshw]

I think Cobb and Severino should be shopped as heavily as possible at the deadline with the Orioles willing to eat as much of Cobb's salary as necessary. After all, you either keep him and pay him or you can trade him, get a prospect and pay him. If you're going to pay him anyway and the Orioles aren't going anywhere in 2021, it still makes sense to get prospect as long as the Orioles have at least someone to take the ball. If the O's can give those innings to Baumann, Lowther, Smith, Bradish, etc it's worth it.

As for Severino, if Rutschman does come up mid-season, Severino is redundant (or Sisco if you can move him easier).

Beyond that, however, I think any other move will yield little. I could see a relief arm or two go or maybe Sanchez, but I don't expect much back.