Trade Bait 2021

[Explosivo]

Keep means, he is essential to the team in the next 2-3 years when we are really good. Harvey is the trade bait though I am really liking his stuff. If we could somehow get a sweetheart deal on resigning the guy, I’d love that to be honest.

[ShoelesJoe]

Dodgers just lost Dustin May to TJS. Can they fill that hole from their minor leagues, or might they be ripe to trade for Means? They don’t have near the prospect depth of the Padres, but could they put together a package we’d be interested in? 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Dodgers just lost Dustin May to TJS. Can they fill that hole from their minor leagues, or might they be ripe to trade for Means? They don’t have near the prospect depth of the Padres, but could they put together a package we’d be interested in? 

They can just put David Price in the rotation.

[Brooks The Great]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

They can just put David Price in the rotation.

Or even better yet (for them), Gonsolin. Gonsolin should beat Price back from injury, and he's likely the superior pitcher anyway.

[joelala]

2 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Or even better yet (for them), Gonsolin. Gonsolin should beat Price back from injury, and he's likely the superior pitcher anyway.

Agreed. Gonsolin should, and probably will, get the first shot at that rotation spot. 
 

I think we’ll end up trading Means, but not to LAD. 
 

In other news: White Sox just lost Luis Robert for the year in addition to already being without Eloy Jimenez. I think they’ll call about Mancini and to a lesser degree Santander. But Mancini seems like an extremely logical target for them.  I don’t think their farm is that great right now. Would you trade Trey for Dylan Cease and a minor leaguer?
 

 

[Brooks The Great]

3 hours ago, joelala said:

Agreed. Gonsolin should, and probably will, get the first shot at that rotation spot. 
 

I think we’ll end up trading Means, but not to LAD. 
 

In other news: White Sox just lost Luis Robert for the year in addition to already being without Eloy Jimenez. I think they’ll call about Mancini and to a lesser degree Santander. But Mancini seems like an extremely logical target for them.  I don’t think their farm is that great right now. Would you trade Trey for Dylan Cease and a minor leaguer?

Depends on the minor leaguer, but I personally wouldn't want the O's to get Cease. I'd like to see us go after Matthew Thompson and/or Bryan Ramos.

[Redskins Rick]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

He did go 15-11 and 13-5 his last two seasons, pitching for teams that went 70-92 and 69-93.   In the latter season, the O’s won every game he pitched from June 21 to August 21, a total of 12 starts in which he personally went 9-0 and the team won the other three as well.    

Yeah, I guess he did have a couple of decent W-L for crappy teams. 

I loved watching him pitched when he was here.

[Redskins Rick]

15 hours ago, UMDTerrapins said:

The Bedard trade was obviously huge for us....traded at age 28 with two years before free agency. Means is 28 and four years from free agency. If we’re seriously thinking of dealing Means, we should get a real haul in return...and then pray we’re as fortunate as we were with Bedard’s deal. 

Means hasnt done what Bedard had gone, so I doubt you can get a big haul for him. But, hell, Ive been wrong before.

[joelala]

7 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Depends on the minor leaguer, but I personally wouldn't want the O's to get Cease. I'd like to see us go after Matthew Thompson and/or Bryan Ramos.

Not familiar with these two, will check them out. Cease appeals to me because even though he may end up being a reliever,  he’s shown he can pitch in the Majors. If we can get a major league pitcher with a ceiling as high as his for Trey, I’d be pretty pumped. Actually upon reflection I kind of think the Sox wouldn’t send us a prospect with Cease. 
 

I think Reynaldo Lopez and a prospect may be more realistic. I’d dislike that though. 

[Sports Guy]

Yea, you trade Mancini for Cease.

[BohKnowsBmore]

58 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Means hasnt done what Bedard had gone, so I doubt you can get a big haul for him. But, hell, Ive been wrong before.

I'm not sure that's necessarily true. 

In 4 years with Baltimore (and a part of another), Bedard's line:
114G (111GS); 658 IP; 40-34 W-L; 3.83 ERA; 118 ERA+; 3.59 FIP; 1.339 WHIP; 8.7 K/9; 2.34 K/BB

In ~2.25 years with Baltimore (and a part of another), Mean's line: 
48G (43GS); 239 IP; 17-15 W-L; 3.62 ERA; 127 ERA+; 4.51 FIP; 1.071 WHIP; 7.7 K/9; 3.73 K/BB

While Bedard clearly pitched more for Baltimore, some of that is due to the shortened 2020 season (meaningful given the low number of seasons for Means). That said, Means has had better numbers generally and is trending in an even more positive direction. For example, his K/9 in 2020 was 8.7 and it's 9.2 YTD in 2021.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I'm not sure that's necessarily true. 

In 4 years with Baltimore (and a part of another), Bedard's line:
114G (111GS); 658 IP; 40-34 W-L; 3.83 ERA; 118 ERA+; 3.59 FIP; 1.339 WHIP; 8.7 K/9; 2.34 K/BB

In ~2.25 years with Baltimore (and a part of another), Mean's line: 
48G (43GS); 239 IP; 17-15 W-L; 3.62 ERA; 127 ERA+; 4.51 FIP; 1.071 WHIP; 7.7 K/9; 3.73 K/BB

While Bedard clearly pitched more for Baltimore, some of that is due to the shortened 2020 season (meaningful given the low number of seasons for Means). That said, Means has had better numbers generally and is trending in an even more positive direction. For example, his K/9 in 2020 was 8.7 and it's 9.2 YTD in 2021.

Bedard took two years to get his land legs.   2004 he unexpectedly made the team after barely pitching in 2003 following TJ rehab.   He showed flashes but was plagued by high pitch counts and walks.  2005 he started off like a house on fire (2.08 ERA in 9 starts), but sustained a groin injury (I think) and wasn’t as effective once he returned from a long IL spell.   2006 he started to put it all together and 2007 he was an absolute beast, though his season ended a month early with an oblique injury.    

So yes, if you compare Bedard’s entire O’s tenure with Means’ you can find some elements that favor Means.  But if you look at Bedard’s peak (which is what’s relevant for trade value since he was at peak when traded), Bedard has the advantage.  That said, let’s see how 2021 progresses.    Means is off to a great start and if he were to be a top 5 pitcher in the AL all year as he is now, he’d have a lot of trade value, for sure.  


 

[BohKnowsBmore]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Bedard took two years to get his land legs.   2004 he unexpectedly made the team after barely pitching in 2003 following TJ rehab.   He showed flashes but was plagued by high pitch counts and walks.  2005 he started off like a house on fire (2.08 ERA in 9 starts), but sustained a groin injury (I think) and wasn’t as effective once he returned from a long IL spell.   2006 he started to put it all together and 2007 he was an absolute beast, though his season ended a month early with an oblique injury.    

So yes, if you compare Bedard’s entire O’s tenure with Means’ you can find some elements that favor Means.  But if you look at Bedard’s peak (which is what’s relevant for trade value since he was at peak when traded), Bedard has the advantage.  That said, let’s see how 2021 progresses.    Means is off to a great start and if he were to be a top 5 pitcher in the AL all year as he is now, he’d have a lot of trade value, for sure.  


 

While what you say here is accurate, but there are certainly adjustments we could make to Means's tenure (e.g., removing his worst 2020 inning against the Yankees) that would make his resume look even more stellar. 

I used full tenure for comparison because the statement at hand was that Means "hadn't done what Bedard had done," implying accomplishment over time, at least in my mind. 

If we want to talk about peak and how they are trending, I think it's still a lot closer than the initial implication. Means's 2019 wasn't too far behind Bedard's 2007, although the latter was pretty clearly superior. That said, Means's 2021 thus far is on pace to well outstrip anything Bedard did as an Oriole, including 2007. It's early and Means could certainly falter, but it largely seems to be a clear continuation of 2019 and 2020, with most things trending in positive directions.

[Redskins Rick]

Has anybody said, Means is the best lefty that the Orioles have ever thrown? Bedard had some really nasty stuff.

Not trying to take anything away from the dude, and he is a very good pitcher and should continue to get better, and could very well expand past what Bedard was able to do.

 

[Yardball85]

On 4/28/2021 at 1:58 PM, Three Run Homer said:

I think John Means is the best starting pitcher the Orioles have had since Mike Mussina.  Having said that--should the O's be open to trading him if they could get a package similar to what the White Sox got for Jose Quintana a few years ago (four players headlined by Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease)?  At the time, Jimenez was the Cubs' top prospect and a consensus top-10 prospect in all of MLB, and Cease was the Cubs' number 2 prospect.  

Means has been awesome, and hindsight is 20/20, but I still take Bedard in 2007 and his future (which we know wasn't great) over Means and his future.