Does the Josh Bell trade peg Trey Mancini’s trade value?

[ArtVanDelay]

Crowe looks like an AAAA guy at best by looking at his baseball reference page.  I’m sure there’s more to the story but how is this guy the Nats #2 prospect?

[weams]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

  

Crowe was a 2nd round pick in 2017, generally appearing between 2 and 6 on Nats top 10 lists.  He had a rocky 3 game debut in the majors this year.  Yean is a Dominican pitcher usually in the bottom half of the Nats top 10, received a $1.25 mm signing bonus and ranked the no. 16 amateur FA signing that year.   He’s gotten as far as the GCL as an 18-year old.   

Would you have traded Trey for that package?
 

 

Absolutely

[hoosiers]

I don't think Bell is a bad comp for Mancini and the trade package received is not a bad one.

Still, I believe Mancini has been a better overall hitter, had more 2+ WAR years than Bell and a higher peak war so far.

If Mancini had performed well in 2020, he would be considered a comfortably better hitter than Bell - who really only has a strong 2019 season to show for what have been considered strong baseball skills.

I would prefer a better package for Mancini especially if Trey comes back healthy and productive, 

[Sports Guy]

I think something people have to keep in mind is that you don’t always need to get a top 100 guy.

For example, when the Manny talk was going on, I wanted Lux and May for him.  At that time, neither was a top 100 guy.  You were seeing that they could be soon and that the talent was there but neither was ranked.  That’s not to say the Dodgers would have done that deal but give me those 2 over the 5 we got.  I also wanted Deivi Garcia for Britton.  At the time, Garcia wasn’t even a top 10 prospect for the Yankees.

If the Os (just using this deal as an example) feel that Yean is a season away from being a much more highly rated prospect, I’m good with that thought process.  
 

We (and by we, I’m including myself in this) get wrapped up in these rankings a lot but they really don’t mean much.  

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think something people have to keep in mind is that you don’t always need to get a top 100 guy.

For example, when the Manny talk was going on, I wanted Lux and May for him.  At that time, neither was a top 100 guy.  You were seeing that they could be soon and that the talent was there but neither was ranked.  That’s not to say the Dodgers would have done that deal but give me those 2 over the 5 we got.  I also wanted Deivi Garcia for Britton.  At the time, Garcia wasn’t even a top 10 prospect for the Yankees.

If the Os (just using this deal as an example) feel that Yean is a season away from being a much more highly rated prospect, I’m good with that thought process.  
 

We (and by we, I’m including myself in this) get wrapped up in these rankings a lot but they really don’t mean much.  

I don’t have an argument with this logic.    However, as a non-scout and someone who doesn’t follow other teams’ prospects that closely, it’s often hard for me to have an opinion one way or the other on players we do or might receive in a trade, other than seeing how they’re ranked.   Especially if they have little or no MiL track record.    

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t have an argument with this logic.    However, as a non-scout and someone who doesn’t follow other teams’ prospects that closely, it’s often hard for me to have an opinion one way or the other on players we do or might receive in a trade, other than seeing how they’re ranked.   Especially if they have little or no MiL track record.    

Sure and that’s fine..that’s why I mentioned  “we” overrating these rankings because, in a lot of ways, it’s all we have to go off of.

But scouting reports, age, level, production, etc..are all factors and those factors are part of these decisions.

There are probably at least 10 players that will be in A ball this year that are outside of the top 100 that will be inside it by the end of the year (assuming we have a MiL season).  Just because someone is “far away” and not a top 100 guy doesn’t mean they aren’t the best guy available, even if a top 100 guy that is closer to the majors is available.  In fact, I would argue that those are the exact guys we should be getting for our players.  None of the guys we have are fetching you upper level, top prospects.  They just aren’t those levels of talent.  
 

What we need to find are the guys who will be the upper level top prospects in a year or 2.  Teams are far more likely to part with those guys than the top guys that are close to the majors.

[HowAboutThat]

I’d trade Mancini for Bacharach.

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think something people have to keep in mind is that you don’t always need to get a top 100 guy.

For example, when the Manny talk was going on, I wanted Lux and May for him.  At that time, neither was a top 100 guy.  You were seeing that they could be soon and that the talent was there but neither was ranked.  That’s not to say the Dodgers would have done that deal but give me those 2 over the 5 we got.  I also wanted Deivi Garcia for Britton.  At the time, Garcia wasn’t even a top 10 prospect for the Yankees.

If the Os (just using this deal as an example) feel that Yean is a season away from being a much more highly rated prospect, I’m good with that thought process.  
 

We (and by we, I’m including myself in this) get wrapped up in these rankings a lot but they really don’t mean much.  

Yeah, that's where lists are just snapshots and the teams getting fresh info week by week.   Whatever midseason lists might have said that Machado July, I strongly suspect the Dodgers already had May/Lux solidly ahead of Kremer/Yusniel.   Two decent performers can still help us a lot in the 162.

The other side of this coin - whatever list heights he once had, teams have kind of told us what they really think of Taylor Trammell.

 

[Sports Guy]

49 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Yeah, that's where lists are just snapshots and the teams getting fresh info week by week.   Whatever midseason lists might have said that Machado July, I strongly suspect the Dodgers already had May/Lux solidly ahead of Kremer/Yusniel.   Two decent performers can still help us a lot in the 162.

The other side of this coin - whatever list heights he once had, teams have kind of told us what they really think of Taylor Trammell.

 

Yea I agree.

 To be clear, I’m not saying the Dodgers would have made that deal. We do know the Os apparently inquired about those guys.  Doesn’t mean the Dodgers would have moved them and maybe the Os valued Diaz higher.  Who knows.

Just pointing out that a high ranking from a publication isn’t the end all, be all.  There are a lot of things to look at.

[Aristotelian]

Bell has a monster 142 OPS+ 37 HR/.936 OPS season. Mancini's 2019 is close but I would give Bell the edge for proven upside. Mancini's worst season (2018) is also slightly worse than Bell's worst (2018) unless you count last year's short season. Mancini is also coming off cancer treatment and we just don't know what that can do to a player. Emotionally I would not do that trade and hope that Mancini comes out fully recovered to raise his stock higher. From a business standpoint it seems a decent price for a healthy Mancini and there is a good chance that he is not healthy so from that standpoint it would be a good "bird in hand" to take right now. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

What we need to find are the guys who will be the upper level top prospects in a year or 2.  Teams are far more likely to part with those guys than the top guys that are close to the majors.

Josh Hader.

Hopefully 1-2 of the Dominican guys we picked up might turn into one of those.    Or one of these Angels pitchers who’ve never thrown an inning in the minors yet.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 12/25/2020 at 10:18 AM, ArtVanDelay said:

Crowe looks like an AAAA guy at best by looking at his baseball reference page.  I’m sure there’s more to the story but how is this guy the Nats #2 prospect?

I don't understand why he's fairly highly rated, either.  Must be someone the scouts love, otherwise he's 26 and his numbers haven't looked good since he was in A ball.

[LookinUp]

On 12/26/2020 at 9:21 AM, Sports Guy said:

What we need to find are the guys who will be the upper level top prospects in a year or 2.  Teams are far more likely to part with those guys than the top guys that are close to the majors.

I don't think I agree with this. Teams know if they have studs at the lower levels and they value them higher than average guys at the upper levels, IMO.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I don't think I agree with this. Teams know if they have studs at the lower levels and they value them higher than average guys at the upper levels, IMO.

Well, SG is right that guys move up as others graduate.   Obviously some guys (usually top 1-2 picks by an org) start off pretty high on these lists, but a lot develop over time or teams just get a better look (especially for the foreign players).    

[LookinUp]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, SG is right that guys move up as others graduate.   Obviously some guys (usually top 1-2 picks by an org) start off pretty high on these lists, but a lot develop over time or teams just get a better look (especially for the foreign players).    

I guess what I'm saying is that teams have their own top 10 and they likely don't get close to mirroring BA's, specifically because they know much more about the younger guys in the system. 

A guy like Mayo *might* be a decent example for the O's. Big tools. Missed his senior season in high school. This kid could be the next Cal Ripken, or the next Ryan Minor, for all we know. The team has, or will soon have, a good idea though. He likely won't be on a top 100 list for 2 years if things go well, but within a few workouts he could be internally ranked up there with Henderson for us. 

Chris Cooley likes to say that when he played he could pick the roster within 3-4 guys after just a few days of training camp. Talent is apparent.

So if the O's are selling Mayo, they'd be selling him with a 55 FV price tag, not a 30 FV price tag. You probably get some small discount, but team valuations don't ignore that talent just because they're young.