How far is Baumann behind Kremer in development?

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ummm..this really has nothing to do with Tony’s point about a 31 y/o pitcher’s service time.

Both getting an extra year of Baumann and signing 16 year kids  are six years away from any impact on the major league team and Elias is concerned about the 16 year old kid. Why not the extra year of Baumann?

[LookinUp]

Yeah, I'm not necessarily arguing with Tony or SG on this one either. I get the perspective.

I do think it would change the optics in some ways if Elias allows Baumann to start on the ML team. He'd be saying for the first time that he's more focused on the next 5 years than he is on laying the groundwork for some undefined future. It would be the first time I remember him leading for the next month instead of the next decade.

I really don't see much of a benefit unless he's genuinely trying to win this year, in which case other moves should also be made. 

I just assume he's really going to start trying to win in about July, and then moving forward.

[Sports Guy]

There are a lot of players you don’t need to worry about gaming the system for.

Baumann is a good example of that.

[Tony-OH]

20 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There are a lot of players you don’t need to worry about gaming the system for.

Baumann is a good example of that.

If Baumann was 22 or 23 vs 25, maybe. It's not that I'm not a believer in Baumann, its that good GMs don't game the system for an extra year of a 31 year old pitcher. I believe either he will be traded (most likely), turned into a reliever, or possibly extended long before we'd need to worry about getting an extra year before free agency.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

If Baumann was 22 or 23 vs 25, maybe. It's not that I'm not a believer in Baumann, its that good GMs don't game the system for an extra year of a 31 year old pitcher. I believe either he will be traded (most likely), turned into a reliever, or possibly extended long before we'd need to worry about getting an extra year before free agency.

Right..plus, him starting the year in the majors doesn’t mean he is here all year.  If he struggles, he gets sent down and you can potentially get the year back anyway.
 

So, you either end up gaining the extra year anyway or he shows he belongs.  You win either way.

[LookinUp]

The service time argument, in my opinion, can be summarized as follows:

If you "game" the system on 20 guys, but only gain 1 year on 1 real stud, is it worth it? That's essentially 1 or 2 months lost on the front end for 20 guys. We gain 1 year at peak production of one stud. That year of control also includes a year where arb prices are behind where they'd otherwise be, which also improves trade value throughout.

Are the odds on Baumann that low, solely because of his age, where he doesn't fit the profile? SG/Tony are saying yes. I'm not so sure.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The service time argument, in my opinion, can be summarized as follows:

If you "game" the system on 20 guys, but only gain 1 year on 1 real stud, is it worth it? That's essentially 1 or 2 months lost on the front end for 20 guys. We gain 1 year at peak production of one stud. That year of control also includes a year where arb prices are behind where they'd otherwise be, which also improves trade value throughout.

Are the odds on Baumann that low, solely because of his age, where he doesn't fit the profile? SG/Tony are saying yes. I'm not so sure.

For me, I have very little interest in keeping basically any player beyond age 30, at least with a long term, expensive contract. I would want to control as many years possible leading up to age 30.

Baumann would be right there, so no need to game the system for him.

[LookinUp]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

For me, I have very little interest in keeping basically any player beyond age 30, at least with a long term, expensive contract. I would want to control as many years possible leading up to age 30.

Baumann would be right there, so no need to game the system for him.

And for me, since it's pretty clear that we're not intending to make 2021 a go for it type of year, I'd go ahead and let him get his feet under him in AAA and gain the extra year. That will give us that little bit of a benefit on the back end. 

Not saying it's a massive benefit, but it's >0 so I'd do it because there's some probability that it really pays off.

[Sports Guy]

The best argument for the extra year for Baumann is his value in a trade.

I don’t need a player to be in AAA.  That means nothing to me.  If you feel they need more time for things, that’s fine but at his age, I think he’s ready.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

If Baumann was 22 or 23 vs 25, maybe. It's not that I'm not a believer in Baumann, its that good GMs don't game the system for an extra year of a 31 year old pitcher. I believe either he will be traded (most likely), turned into a reliever, or possibly extended long before we'd need to worry about getting an extra year before free agency.

Two points about Bauman:

1) We are not talking about Bruce Zimmerman here.  We are talking about a 3rd round pick that appears at this moment to have a high ceiling.  He has a chance to be middle of the rotation starter for years. He is currently a top 10 O's prospect  who you said is pretty close to being as good a prospect as DL Hall.

2)  Yes, the O's may not keep him until he is 31.   Maybe they trade him at 29 with two years left before FA.   Two years left at that point would be worth more that one year left.   So when he is traded impacts how many good years the O's get from before he is traded and what value he has when he is traded.  

[LookinUp]

Yup. I don't think we just throw our hands up and say he's 25 and he's ready, so start him in Baltimore. The whole point of holding guys back is because there's value in the back end of his control, through trade, cost, 1 more year of production in his prime, whatever.

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Two points about Bauman:

1) We are not talking about Bruce Zimmerman here.  We are talking about a 3rd round pick that appears at this moment to have a high ceiling.  He has a chance to be middle of the rotation starter for years. He is currently a top 10 O's prospect  who you said is pretty close to being as good a prospect as DL Hall.

2)  Yes, the O's may not keep him until he is 31.   Maybe they trade him at 29 with two year left before FA.   Two years left at that point would be worth more that one year left.   So when he is traded impacts how many good years the O's get from before he is traded and what value he has when he is traded.  

We just have to agree to disagree as we're just repeating the same points. If the Orioles have to keep him in the minors to start the year for a few weeks then I can see them potentially doing so, but I don't see them keeping him in the minors this season like they will Rutschman when realistically, Rutschman is probably the best catcher in the organization right now including the major league catchers.

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Yup. I don't think we just throw our hands up and say he's 25 and he's ready, so start him in Baltimore. The whole point of holding guys back is because there's value in the back end of his control, through trade, cost, 1 more year of production in his prime, whatever.

At some point don't you have to make an educated guess as to if he will have value in the back end of his control?  How many players even have six to seven year careers?  If he's out of baseball by 2025 what good does that extra year of control do you?

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

We just have to agree to disagree as we're just repeating the same points. If the Orioles have to keep him in the minors to start the year for a few weeks then I can see them potentially doing so, but I don't see them keeping him in the minors this season like they will Rutschman when realistically, Rutschman is probably the best catcher in the organization right now including the major league catchers.

 

I agree.  Baumann will probably be in AAA for only a few weeks if he is healthy and performing well.    Rutschman has hardly played in the minor leagues and since the O's are planning to lose this season he may be kept down until 2022.    

[LookinUp]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

At some point don't you have to make an educated guess as to if he will have value in the back end of his control?  How many players even have six to seven year careers?  If he's out of baseball by 2025 what good does that extra year of control do you?

Is your educated guess about Baumann that he will be out of baseball by 2025? 

Let's say he has Zach Davies value. Decent value on the trade market.