TT: Rotation "horserace" becomes clearer

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

How many rookie SP in MLB have made 30 starts in the last decade?

Soroka and Hudson made 29 and 32 respectively in 2019.  So it does happen.

[ScGO's]

Any scenario where the knuckle ball pitcher Mickey Jannis makes the team? I feel like he adds an interesting dynamic to the pitching staff.  Might need to perfect his craft at AAA first.

[LTO's]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not?  He has been pretty awful in his career and he’s not exactly young.  
 
How “good” is he?

That's sort of irrelevant when you're talking about the 5/6 spot in the rotation of a horrible team in a year where teams are going to have to use more pitchers than normal. He's certainly projected to be better than Wade Leblanc and Matt Harvey.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Any scenario where the knuckle ball pitcher Mickey Jannis makes the team? I feel like he adds an interesting dynamic to the pitching staff.  Might need to perfect his craft at AAA first.

Yea, after ten years of pitching professionally he probably needs to polish his craft.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, LTO's said:

That's sort of irrelevant when you're talking about the 5/6 spot in the rotation of a horrible team in a year where teams are going to have to use more pitchers than normal. He's certainly projected to be better than Wade Leblanc and Matt Harvey.

I wouldn’t project him to be better than those guys especially if Harvey has found something.

Why would you?

And even if he is better, he still won’t be good and being better than them means very little.

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I wouldn’t project him to be better than those guys especially if Harvey had found something.

Why would you?

I'm going off actual statistical projections that frankly carry more weight for me than your projections. Has nothing to do with how I feel about him. Though, even personally, I think he's going to be better than Wade Leblanc and Matt Harvey because both of those guys were down right unplayable last year and are both older than him. Also, he's been much healthier which leads me to believe he'll be able to eat more innings until the fringe guys from AAA come up which is all he's really here for. 

[MurphDogg]

51 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

How many rookie SP in MLB have made 30 starts in the last decade?

Not sure exactly how to look that up, but I would guess an average of 2 or 3 rookies per season make 28 or more starts. John Means made 27 starts over 31 appearances in his 2019 rookie year and that didn't strike me as particularly anomalous.

Certainly a rookie who starts the season in the rotation would be expected to make 28+ starts barring injury or a breakdown of effectiveness, unless they are on an innings limit. There is no evidence to suggest that any of the Orioles rookies are on an innings limit, so I wouldn't be surprised if any of Kremer, Akin, or Zimmermann made 28 or more starts if they broke camp in the rotation. Probably too much to expect all 3 to make 28 starts given the uncertainty of health and effectiveness, but it wouldn't be shocking. None of them are particularly young or were rushed through the minors.

Among rookies who made 5+ starts in the previous MLB season, I would think making 28 starts in the subsequent season would be more the rule than the exception.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not?  He has been pretty awful in his career and he’s not exactly young.  
 
How “good” is he?

I’m going to retract that part of my comment.   I saw a few appearances last year where I thought he looked half-decent.   But when I look at his track record, it’s pretty abysmal.   In any event I already agreed with you that he shouldn’t begin the year starting over Akin.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

I'm going off actual statistical projections that frankly carry more weight for me than your projections. Has nothing to do with how I feel about him. Though, even personally, I think he's going to be better than Wade Leblanc and Matt Harvey because both of those guys were down right unplayable last year and are both older than him. Also, he's been much healthier which leads me to believe he'll be able to eat more innings until the fringe guys from AAA come up which is all he's really here for. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jorge-lopez/14527/stats?position=P
 

Those projections look awesome!

 

[Number5]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Soroka and Hudson made 29 and 32 respectively in 2019.  So it does happen.

As Charles Comiskey said to Eddie Cicotte, "29 is not 30, Eddie."  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

As Charles Comiskey said to Eddie Cicotte, "29 is not 30, Eddie."  

And MurphDogg set the original bar at 28. 

Nice quote tho. 

[Number5]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nice quote tho. 

LOL.  And I've waited years for the opportunity to use it!  It's not exactly "You can't handle the truth!" or "Show me the money!."

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

As Charles Comiskey said to Eddie Cicotte, "29 is not 30, Eddie."  

Too bad he didn't get an Opener appearance.   I rewatched Eight Men Out last year for the first time in probably 20+ years, and had to triple check that was David Strathairn as a Halladay-esque hoss.

Like, Edward R. Murrow and the famously diminutive William Seward playing David Strathairn.

[eddie83]

4 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Not sure exactly how to look that up, but I would guess an average of 2 or 3 rookies per season make 28 or more starts. John Means made 27 starts over 31 appearances in his 2019 rookie year and that didn't strike me as particularly anomalous.

Certainly a rookie who starts the season in the rotation would be expected to make 28+ starts barring injury or a breakdown of effectiveness, unless they are on an innings limit. There is no evidence to suggest that any of the Orioles rookies are on an innings limit, so I wouldn't be surprised if any of Kremer, Akin, or Zimmermann made 28 or more starts if they broke camp in the rotation. Probably too much to expect all 3 to make 28 starts given the uncertainty of health and effectiveness, but it wouldn't be shocking. None of them are particularly young or were rushed through the minors.

Among rookies who made 5+ starts in the previous MLB season, I would think making 28 starts in the subsequent season would be more the rule than the exception.

I would be shocked if anyone other than Means makes more than 25 starts on this team. Put odds at around 15%.  

 

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Soroka and Hudson made 29 and 32 respectively in 2019.  So it does happen.

Sure on contenders with high end talent.  

[eddie83]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t understand the point of this question. The point in keeping him is as a long man/mop up duty type guy.

I would rather in a lost season give him an honest look and then move on from him if it doesn’t work. Not saying I think he will pan out.