How far are the O's away from being a winning team?

[foxfield]

On 4/27/2021 at 6:36 PM, GuidoSarducci said:

At the end of the season, I will reveal my plan for the Orioles winning the World Series in 2022.

Tell me it's not end of days....last shall be first sort of thing. 

[DJHJR86]

3-4 years.  Even though the COVID year was shorter, if you expand the numbers they were on pace for a 67 win season.  Which is the current pace right now in 2021.  I think they are 2 years away from borderline .500 and 3-4 until they are actually competitive.  All of this is also based on the assumption that the guys who are supposed to develop, actually do develop into solid starters.

[sportsfan8703]

15-16. 
 

Is that hope I see?  If only we could hit then this could get interesting. 

[joelala]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

15-16. 
 

Is that hope I see?  If only we could hit then this could get interesting. 

Until we trade Means, Mancini, et al…

[Camden_yardbird]

19 minutes ago, joelala said:

Until we trade Means, Mancini, et al…

Am I the only person who has zero confidence in Elias trading those two for meaningful future players?

[foxfield]

15 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Am I the only person who has zero confidence in Elias trading those two for meaningful future players?

Really?  You are completely convinced the Orioles are doomed?  

I don't know if either are traded.  As of today, I think Mancini would still not bring much.  He is a great story but I would think that there are many who would worry about him...fair or not.  As for Means, trading him would seem to be a tougher and tougher call.  Meaning that Elias would have to receive a pretty big haul...almost like an offer too good to refuse.  

I'm of the camp that I hope neither is traded, but if Elias does, he is likely just clearing space and getting marginal return for Mancini and if he moves Means, the return should make most here giddy.

[Aristotelian]

46 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Am I the only person who has zero confidence in Elias trading those two for meaningful future players?

I don't see any reason to think Elias would do a poor job. What makes you believe that? So far he seems to have the organization headed in the right direction and when he talks I am usually impressed with his thought process. He hasn't gotten us any Jones/Tillman type of returns yet, but he hasn't had a chip anywhere near Bedard. 

[Camden_yardbird]

18 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Really?  You are completely convinced the Orioles are doomed?  

I don't know if either are traded.  As of today, I think Mancini would still not bring much.  He is a great story but I would think that there are many who would worry about him...fair or not.  As for Means, trading him would seem to be a tougher and tougher call.  Meaning that Elias would have to receive a pretty big haul...almost like an offer too good to refuse.  

I'm of the camp that I hope neither is traded, but if Elias does, he is likely just clearing space and getting marginal return for Mancini and if he moves Means, the return should make most here giddy.

I am in fact not convinced the Orioles are doomed.  I think they need to start adding major leaguers to their roster and not keep subtracting them for trade packages that look a lot like the Halloween grab bag from the weird house down the street (i.e. a lot of random stuff that is not what your really want and will get thrown out after a few weeks).

The Orioles don't have to be far away.  They have pitching in the minor leagues, they have 4-5 solid hitters, they have an Ace.

They need to keep adding major leaguers and stop subtracting them, especially for grab bags of players in trades where  quantity is valued over quality.

[Camden_yardbird]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't see any reason to think Elias would do a poor job. What makes you believe that? So far he seems to have the organization headed in the right direction and when he talks I am usually impressed with his thought process. He hasn't gotten us any Jones/Tillman type of returns yet, but he hasn't had a chip anywhere near Bedard. 

Does he?  I have yet to see where there is any appreciable value (with one notable exception) added to this organization under Elias.  The one thing he hasn't done is screw up the top prospects he inherited, so he at least is doing something right.

I would say the organization has a solidly mixed to bad track record under Elias on preparation of players for call ups, even recognizing it takes time for players to learn the big league game. We have a big old N/A on the minor leagues until we see more data and they actually get to play so we can't evaluate his drafts but at review they did not receive high grades due to his preponderance of drafting players no one had ranked where he took them.  We can keep saying he had nothing to work with and ignore that he assumed that very fact and undervalued players he had, adopting a grass is greener approach.

Look, an average GM should be able to build a strong farm system with multiple top 5 pick drafts.  And the perception is he has done that.  He has brought in metrics, but I have yet to see where that has appreciable improved the overall trajectory of players.

If, under his direction, John Means was sent to P3, where by all accounts his future career trajectory was drastically altered for the better than I have to give him a lot of credit for that.  We need to see that more often for me to feel like Elias has really performed as an above average GM and can take a small market team from rebuild to contender in a major league system that makes it near impossible to do that unless you have a GM who is hitting on the vast majority of their organization defining choices.

 

[Orioles0615]

31 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't see any reason to think Elias would do a poor job. What makes you believe that? So far he seems to have the organization headed in the right direction and when he talks I am usually impressed with his thought process. He hasn't gotten us any Jones/Tillman type of returns yet, but he hasn't had a chip anywhere near Bedard. 

Probably because despite the fact that we haven't had much in trade chip, he has gone quantity over quality. Again he hasn't had someone like Means to trade though. However I think he would be a bad move to trade Means. He seems legit, and after yesterday you would just kill the fan base even more. 

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Am I the only person who has zero confidence in Elias trading those two for meaningful future players?

 

20 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I am in fact not convinced the Orioles are doomed.  I think they need to start adding major leaguers to their roster and not keep subtracting them for trade packages that look a lot like the Halloween grab bag from the weird house down the street (i.e. a lot of random stuff that is not what your really want and will get thrown out after a few weeks).

The Orioles don't have to be far away.  They have pitching in the minor leagues, they have 4-5 solid hitters, they have an Ace.

They need to keep adding major leaguers and stop subtracting them, especially for grab bags of players in trades where  quantity is valued over quality.

I don't think these two things even agree with themselves.  But I agree pretty much with the second point.  It is in fact time to begin bringing players up to the major league level.  I think we are seeing that daily.  The halloween grab bag stuff is not an apples to apples look at the O's today.  

Os may well trade some fodder at the deadline and if they do they will not get much in return.  The O's could trade depth for need.  For example Santander for a strong 3B prospect...but the reality is that the depth we have will likely be kept until Hays, Santander, Mullins, Diaz et al have more time to compete.  Means is the only person on the roster that could possibly bring a lot back and that of course assumes he continues his run of outstanding pitching.  Again, I think he is pitching himself into a cornerstone spot and unless everyone in the minors looks to be more than 2 years away, I think Elias is in a great position because he can either get a massive haul or simply keep him.

But back to confidence.  THIS is what tearing it down was supposed to do.  And while we are still not competitive we are laying a foundation to be just that...and I for one am pretty pleased.  Make no mistake, there is a long way to go. But take the time to look at the rest of the Orioles notes from yesterday and you will see that down on the farm meshed nicely with what the parent club was doing in Seattle.  

So yeah, I have confidence in the front office.  If I am looking for boogy men, it's whether ownership can manage the financial needs when that time comes...and it is coming.  And that, has long been the stone around our neck.

[foxfield]

12 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Does he?  I have yet to see where there is any appreciable value (with one notable exception) added to this organization under Elias.  The one thing he hasn't done is screw up the top prospects he inherited, so he at least is doing something right.

This is true, of course, but if you are building quantity and quality at the lowest levels, what else would you expect at this point.  And I am not saying he, Elias, is perfect.  Adley may not have been the right pick, and last years number one is certainly not a win yet.  But your posts are asserting a level of dissonance that seems, at least to me to lack substance.

But I dont know...really it's too early to know, if Elias is doing a good job or not.

I do think this is the final year where measuring by something other than wins and losses at the major league level will work.  

So, again I am going to try to enjoy what I believe is a foundational year.  I just think there are better days ahead.

[wildcard]

Saying that Elias hasn't done anything is about as short sighted as it gets.  Period.

He hired Hyde.   We have not seen players lofting on the job since he arrived.  The environment that has been created is plus, plus for player development.   He hired Holt and Holmes.   He brought Mejdal with him.  The Analytics, the pitching development equipment and the coaches that tell the players how to use it are top notch at his point.

Means was nobody before Holt got a hold of him. Who do you think taught his change up?  Matt Harvey is turning into a #2 starter from a retread.   Mancini is Mancini and he gets the credit for who he is but Mullins, Santander, Hays, Mountcastle are all developing under Elias development system.   And that is something that Dan Duquette didn't do very  well.  Dan could acquire players with talent but the development was a problem many times over.

The bullpen went from near the bottom when Elias arrived to near the top.  Give credit where credit is due.

Now we see DL Hall, Grayson, Bradish in their first outing doing well.   There should be a lot of hope that these guys are on the majors is 2022.  Adley will be right there with them.  What the O's may need to add are couple of good major league infielders to make the O's a contender in 2022.  

There is a chance this thing comes together faster then projected.  Dan turned MacPhail's players into winners in his first year with the O's after 14 losing season.  When Dan arrived we didn't know he could do that.   Don't sell Elias short.  He's been with two winning organizations in St Louis and Houston.   My guess is he knows what he is doing.

[Aristotelian]

49 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Does he?  I have yet to see where there is any appreciable value (with one notable exception) added to this organization under Elias.  The one thing he hasn't done is screw up the top prospects he inherited, so he at least is doing something right.

 

That's interesting because our system has somehow gone from bottom of the barrel to top 5. You don't do that with "one notable exception". The return on the Givens trade looks good. Zimmerman is contributing. Mattson will soon. We got potential major leaguers in Kevin Smith and Jahmai Jones. None of these guys are sure things but that's what you get in exchange for guys like Cobb and Gausman. It's easy to say we should have gotten more for Bundy but we don't know what offers were out there. Bundy's track record was what it was and the Orioles were not in a good bargaining position. 

[Daddy-O's]

I was listening to the MLB network the other day and they were talking about the Yankees starting pitching and how they were dominating over the last 6 days.  Then they added of course they are feasting on the lowly Tigers and mediocre Orioles.  I thought yes we have improved to mediocre and I felt good.