2021 Orioles Prospect Power Rankings (Top 50)

[Jammer7]

On 8/25/2021 at 12:14 PM, RZNJ said:

You think he starts the season there?   Even Mayo had to put some time in at the FCL.     Willems isn't going to have many AB's by the end of the season from the looks of it.

As a hitter, Willems might be able to start in Delmarva. Like you, I think it is just a bit of a stretch. Though low A ball isn’t quite what it used to be. As a catcher, if he stays behind the plate, I would think he would stay in FCL/Extended Spring to work on his game for a few months. He needs to be serious about his conditioning as well. 

[Jammer7]

I have said it before, but Coby Mayo is a dude. He can really hit, not just a power guy. A better overall athlete than many think, but his slow feet need a lot of work. He isn’t a clumsy big masher, but the feet are a tick slow for a MLB 3B in today’s game,  right now anyway. It really shows when he throws on the move. He can improve some there and maybe enough to stay at 3B long term. But I am not optimistic, honestly. I hope he proves me wrong. 

[Sports Guy]

Adley

GRod

Gunnar

Mayo

Cowser

Hall

Westburg

Pinto

Norby

Baumann

 

Note:  Hall dropped because of injury. Would be higher if healthy.  He has the second best upside of any prospect in the system imo but also one of the biggest risk profiles.

[slade]

What’s the story with Jean Pinto. Struck out 11 last night. Looking like a legit prospect 

[sportsfan8703]

@Tony-OH I never thought I’d say this, but we’re running out of room at the top of this list. Do Hall and Mundy “come off” the list since they are out for the season?

My predictions are Mayo has to go up, but really how far?  Good problem to have.

Pinto might be the biggest riser. The whole Delmarva squad should get boosts. Burns deserves consideration. Does Diaz fall off the list completely?
 

Injuries are going to happen, but we have a legit list of top 50 prospects without Hall, Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Baumler. In other years those are top 3-20 guys. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

@Tony-OH I never thought I’d say this, but we’re running out of room at the top of this list. Do Hall and Mundy “come off” the list since they are out for the season?

My predictions are Mayo has to go up, but really how far?  Good problem to have.

Pinto might be the biggest riser. The whole Delmarva squad should get boosts. Burns deserves consideration. Does Diaz fall off the list completely?
 

Injuries are going to happen, but we have a legit list of top 50 prospects without Hall, Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Baumler. In other years those are top 3-20 guys. 

Yeah, there is going to be some interesting considerations that will go into the final prospect list this year. Kjerstad and Baumler have to go on there somewhere as well so there will be some decent prospects that will be just off the top 30 this year.

[sportsfan8703]

10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Yeah, there is going to be some interesting considerations that will go into the final prospect list this year. Kjerstad and Baumler have to go on there somewhere as well so there will be some decent prospects that will be just off the top 30 this year.

I remember 3-4 years ago when you could look at the Dodgers and put together a legit top 75. After next draft, we will be there. 

Edited September 6, 2021 by sportsfan8703

[sportsfan8703]

@Tony-OHThanks for the new update. When Stowers is your #9 prospect then you’re system has arrived. 
 

What the heck is Elias going to do with all of these OFs? There’s only 12 spots with the full season clubs. 16 spots if you count the DH. With how we only draft position players(mainly NCAA) it’s almost like we need another full season club for next year. 

Edited September 7, 2021 by sportsfan8703

[RZNJ]

Great list. Thanks for the updates.  My only real question mark is this.  Terin Vavra stays at 11.  I don't get the Vavra love.  Maybe an a average 2B defensively.  He works the count and takes a walk.  But he also strikes out a lot for a non power hitter and he's struggling to keep his average over .250.   I would think he'd be 20 or lower but obviously I don't get it.

[LookinUp]

36 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Great list. Thanks for the updates.  My only real question mark is this.  Terin Vavra stays at 11.  I don't get the Vavra love.  Maybe an a average 2B defensively.  He works the count and takes a walk.  But he also strikes out a lot for a non power hitter and he's struggling to keep his average over .250.   I would think he'd be 20 or lower but obviously I don't get it.

Couldn't you argue there's a pretty significant tier ending with Baumann? 

Guys like Rhodes and Trimble have tools, but they weren't first round picks. I'm not diminishing those guys, but if we go back to the stats of who succeeds by draft round, the odds for them are pretty low. I'm just saying that success at lower levels is nice, but shouldn't be over reacted to.

My guess is Tony's seen some things out of Vavra against better competition and that's why he has him where he has him. And if not Vavra, who?

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Couldn't you argue there's a pretty significant tier ending with Baumann? 

Guys like Rhodes and Trimble have tools, but they weren't first round picks. I'm not diminishing those guys, but if we go back to the stats of who succeeds by draft round, the odds for them are pretty low. I'm just saying that success at lower levels is nice, but shouldn't be over reacted to.

My guess is Tony's seen some things out of Vavra against better competition and that's why he has him where he has him. And if not Vavra, who?

My guess is that there are things about Vavra that Tony loves.   However, this latest list has Jahmai Jones at #31 and Joey Ortiz at #36.    I'm not sure I see that much of a difference between Vavra's upside and the upside of those two guys.   Let's take Jones out of the equating because I know there are a lot of detractors on here but you talked about level and he played one level higher than Vavra this year.   Ortiz was at the same level as Vavra before he went down.    I just don't see Vavra as head and shoulders above those guys.

[LookinUp]

He's not placing people high in the power rankings who have been out with injury.

This isn't his prospect list. It's power rankings. I think that's the disconnect you have there. I'd agree that Ortiz, Kjerstad, Baumler to name 3 would be higher in a prospect rankings and potentially above Vavra (maybe, though Baumler can't really justify that at this point).

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

He's not placing people high in the power rankings who have been out with injury.

This isn't his prospect list. It's power rankings. I think that's the disconnect you have there. I'd agree that Ortiz, Kjerstad, Baumler to name 3 would be higher in a prospect rankings and potentially above Vavra (maybe, though Baumler can't really justify that at this point).

Ok.  Let's go with this.  Vavra is hitting .245 at Bowie.   His overall numbers are pretty good but he's also got quite a bit of swing and miss with 48 strikeouts in 182 plate appearances.   There is a lot to like with the walks, some good extra base hit numbers, and the possibility that he can stick at 2B (although 10 DP's in 26 GS seems low).     That .245 average and the strikeouts are bothersome.

[UMDTerrapins]

9 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

@Tony-OHThanks for the new update. When Stowers is your #9 prospect then you’re system has arrived. 
 

What the heck is Elias going to do with all of these OFs? There’s only 12 spots with the full season clubs. 16 spots if you count the DH. With how we only draft position players(mainly NCAA) it’s almost like we need another full season club for next year. 

I had the same thought. If Neustrom and Haskin are your fifth and sixth best OF prospects, you’re in really good shape! I like Neustrom a lot. His power is really surprising. 

[UMDTerrapins]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Great list. Thanks for the updates.  My only real question mark is this.  Terin Vavra stays at 11.  I don't get the Vavra love.  Maybe an a average 2B defensively.  He works the count and takes a walk.  But he also strikes out a lot for a non power hitter and he's struggling to keep his average over .250.   I would think he'd be 20 or lower but obviously I don't get it.

I like Vavra. His stats don’t match up with the eye test from early this season. He has a great feel for hitting and spraying the ball all over the field. Sorta has a Brian Robert’s feel to his hitting approach. I question how long he tried to play through the back injury before going on the IL. He’s better than his current stats. I remember Tony had a similar early season impression. Interested to see how he finishes the season.