2021 Orioles Prospect Power Rankings (Top 50)

[UMDTerrapins]

Speaking of Vavra, strange that he was lifted in the top of the 4th tonight. Anyone know if he got hurt?

[wildcard]

Vavra:

2018    A-   302/396/467/863 in 199 PA

2019    A     318/409/489/899 in 453 A

2021     A+  Basically skipped it playing 5 game before promotion

2021     AA   May    265/432/485/917  in 88 PA

              AA June     261/382/391/ 773 in 55 PA  some of the drop is probably due to the back injury which kept him out in July.

               AA August      333/433/510/943 in 61 PA

                AA  Sept    154/214/231/445 in 14 PA

Vavra has been a high average, high OBP, high OPS guy in the low minors.   He skipped A+ in 2021 and was promoted to AA.  Though his average was low in his first two months of 2021 his OBP remained high in April/May.    His average, OBP and OPS  were high in August maybe showing that he adjusted to the AA level.   He is off to a poor Sept but that should not affects his overall evaluation.

Vavra is basically a high average/high OBP/high OPS guy who has had injury problems in 2021.   Skipping A+ probably pulled his AA numbers down a little but it looks like he may have adjusted.  Also he did not have strike out problems in the low minors.  Skipping A+ may have caused the strikeout to go up.  But that was most in May when he struck out 25% of his PA.  In June and August he brought that down to 20%.

   

 

[sportsfan8703]

10 hours ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Speaking of Vavra, strange that he was lifted in the top of the 4th tonight. Anyone know if he got hurt?

I was thinking the same thing. Hope he isn’t. 

[Tony-OH]

Remember, the power rankings are not fully fleshed out prospect rankings. When I have time to really sit down and analyze the numbers, do additional specific scouting on players as well as talk to scouts, then I'll have a final rankings. 

I do like Vavra a bit and think he's better than the overall AA numbers he's put up, but for a guy who basically skipped High-A his .388 OBP and .818 OPS sure don't look too bad to me. 
 

[sportsfan8703]

Jahmai Jones, Lowther and Wells, could all lose prospect status by the end of the year. Jones being the most likely. 

[UMDTerrapins]

Not saying he belongs on the list or even on the bubble, but I kinda like what I saw from Peter VanLoon in Delmarva tonight. He's got a Mark Williamson-like mustache that just looks wrong. But he's a tall righty whose fastball plays faster than it is (91-93 mph) because of his size (6'5") and extension towards home plate. He has a nice looking curve that plays well at this level. The slider isn't very noteworthy but he mixes it in, as well as a rare changeup. What I liked is that he has good command of his pitches. He attacks hitters, and keeps his pitch counts low. There's nothing electric about him and he needs to develop a plus third pitch to become worthy of tracking. But it was refreshing to see a pitcher who attacks and commands well. 

[RZNJ]

Tony, what are the odds on Pinto (15) and Deson (30) being top 10 at this time next year?

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Tony, what are the odds on Pinto (15) and Deson (30) being top 10 at this time next year?

Not @Tony-OH, but the fact that they aren’t at those rankings currently, shows the depth of our system. 2-3+years ago they’d already be there. 

[waroriole]

On 9/9/2021 at 4:08 PM, sportsfan8703 said:

Jahmai Jones, Lowther and Wells, could all lose prospect status by the end of the year. Jones being the most likely. 

I think Lowther has lost prospect status with his performance. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Tony, what are the odds on Pinto (15) and Deson (30) being top 10 at this time next year?

I like Pinto's stuff but he'd have to really blow through High-A and into AA to get into the Top 10. As for Deson, I think we're a couple years away from him having that opportunity unless for someone reason he just absolutely goes nuts. He needs to add strength to that frame which could still take a few years.

[waynebug]

Good work Tony !!!!

I just noticed you ranked Anderson De Los Santos #47 in your latest update.  Gives Orioles 1 three players in your top 50.

[sportsfan8703]

If Kjerstad were healthy we’d have 7-10 guys that you could argue are deserving of Top 100 status. 

Edited September 18, 2021 by sportsfan8703

[RZNJ]

49 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If Kjerstad were healthy we’d have 7-10 guys that you could argue are deserving of Top 100 status. 

Rutschman

Rodriguez

Hall

Cowser

Kjerstad

Mayo

I think there are 6 really good cases there.

Henderson

Stowers

Westburg

Possible but not as likely as the top 6, IMO.

 

Who else?

Next guy on my list for a chance at the top 100 sometime next year would be Pinto.

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Rutschman

Rodriguez

Hall

Cowser

Kjerstad

Mayo

I think there are 6 really good cases there.

Henderson

Stowers

Westburg

Possible but not as likely as the top 6, IMO.

 

Who else?

Next guy on my list for a chance at the top 100 sometime next year would be Pinto.

 

 

Henderson is already in some top 100’s, including MLB Pipeline’s list. I think Stowers and Westburg are real close. 7-10 was a little off, more like 7-9 prospects in the top 100. Even without Kjerstad we could have 6-8 in various top 100 lists. 

[seak05]

Henderson has greater potential defensive value then Mayo, has performed at a higher level, he's also only 6 months older. 

Henderson will probably be on nearly all top 100 lists this year, Mayo is a guy they'll be watching. They had a BA guy on the OTV podcast and asked about Mayo, basically what's holding him off of top100 lists is skepticism he'll stay at 3b and also his swing against better velocity.

 

Personally I think their is a lot of bias towards where guys were ranked in the draft, and it takes a couple years for prospect lists to lose the bias & base it on pro performance. If Mayo had been a first/second round draft pick, he'd be on top 100 lists 

Edited September 19, 2021 by seak05