2021 Orioles Prospect Power Rankings (Top 50)

[Aglets]

25 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Is the 2020 draft looking that bad?  All things considered I think there is some hope that from where it stands right now that this time next year it could turn real fast.

.........

5. Baumler - TCU commit and one of the top prep arms.  Again, just some bad luck.  I’m not sure when he had TJ surgery, but if he could get some IP in at the FCL next year as a 20 yo, that would be huge.  
 

We’ve had some back luck with injuries but that happens.  Especially off a COVID year.  When these guys have been on the field they have looked real good.  If Baumler were pitching in the FCL right now, and Kjerstad was even putting up Westburg type numbers, we’d be talking about this draft as being great.  Just some bad injury luck so far.

 

Excellent post and I'm inclined to agree with all of it.  I think this draft could be seen as a HR a few years from now.....the jury is still out.  It could still be a big success even if Kjerstad is unable to play although that would obviously be a huge asterisk.  But no one can reasonably fault Elias for that.

FWIW, Baumler had Tommy John surgery in the fall of 2020.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, waynebug said:

So on Tony's Aug 9 updated top 50 prospects how many were pitchers Elias has drafted in his 3 drafts ?

Think a low number.

 

 

That’s hardly surprising.   

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

No issue with any of the above.  But he ain't #2. And I like Rom a good bit.  If you want to say he could be 3 than fine.  But Rodriguez and Hall are on another level. I think people really undersell how dominant Hall has been. 

Yeah fair enough. I am concerned about Hall being shut down and the lack of info about him. Couple that with control issues he’s always had and that RP profile is looking more likely. 

[LookinUp]

On 8/9/2021 at 7:18 PM, Tony-OH said:

Updated through 9 August.

Are you more engaged this year or is it me? In all seriousness, it seems like you're commenting on the O's more, watching more online or in person and generally more engaged than you had been over the last few years. I was going through my own turmoil, so it really could be just me, but I just wanted to say thank you and that I like and appreciate your content. This is a neat thread for sure, but I'm not limiting my opinions to this thread. I think you've been great this year.

[Tony-OH]

31 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Are you more engaged this year or is it me? In all seriousness, it seems like you're commenting on the O's more, watching more online or in person and generally more engaged than you had been over the last few years. I was going through my own turmoil, so it really could be just me, but I just wanted to say thank you and that I like and appreciate your content. This is a neat thread for sure, but I'm not limiting my opinions to this thread. I think you've been great this year.

Thanks for the kind words, they're appreciated. Losing Luke made me double down on my own minor league coverage and with so many minor league broadcasts getting really good with centerfield cameras for the batter/pitcher matchup (minus the Orioles affiliates besides Norfolk), it's easier to do the scouting from home. 

Losing weams from the site has made me double down on my Orioles coverage, moderation and site administration. Thankfully @cboemmeljrhas been doing a great job with doing the major and minor league recaps.

With my weekly gig on 105.7 on Thursdays at 12:30, i also need to make sure I'm totally up on the system. It's a lot harder to get information from the organization now so I have to rely on my other sources and my own video scouting now more.

But again, I appreciate you noticing the effort I've been putting in to give fellow Orioles fans as much accurate, non-orange colored glasses, information about the system as possible.

[interloper]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Is the 2020 draft looking that bad?  All things considered I think there is some hope that from where it stands right now that this time next year it could turn real fast.

1.  Kjerstad - The heart condition is bad luck for the O’s, but good luck for Kjerstad.  At least now he knows he has it.  If we can just get him playing that I think his skills will take over.

2A - Westburg -  A SS/3B whose been putting up a big overall OPS across two levels.  Playing a premium position as well. 

2. Haskin - A toolsy CF that is flirting with an .800 OPS after playing in two levels this year.  I’ll take that at a premium position.

3. Severido - He’s suffered some bad luck with an injury, but before that he was an OBP machine.  Again, playing a premium position at SS.

4. Mayo - 19 yo putting up a 1.000+ OPS currently while at least getting ran out there at 3B.  He’s putting up Mountcastle/Gunnar numbers so far in his debut season.  Even if he’s only a 1B, it looks like the bat will be there.

5. Baumler - TCU commit and one of the top prep arms.  Again, just some bad luck.  I’m not sure when he had TJ surgery, but if he could get some IP in at the FCL next year as a 20 yo, that would be huge.  
 

We’ve had some back luck with injuries but that happens.  Especially off a COVID year.  When these guys have been on the field they have looked real good.  If Baumler were pitching in the FCL right now, and Kjerstad was even putting up Westburg type numbers, we’d be talking about this draft as being great.  Just some bad injury luck so far.

 

Yeah, I have to agree. This has the potential to be the little 2020 draft that could. Some tough luck injuries but I like all of these players and the ones that are healthy are doing well enough in their first full pro season.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Thanks for the kind words, they're appreciated. Losing Luke made me double down on my own minor league coverage and with so many minor league broadcasts getting really good with centerfield cameras for the batter/pitcher matchup (minus the Orioles affiliates besides Norfolk), it's easier to do the scouting from home. 

Losing weams from the site has made me double down on my Orioles coverage, moderation and site administration. Thankfully @cboemmeljrhas been doing a great job with doing the major and minor league recaps.

With my weekly gig on 105.7 on Thursdays at 12:30, i also need to make sure I'm totally up on the system. It's a lot harder to get information from the organization now so I have to rely on my other sources and my own video scouting now more.

But again, I appreciate you noticing the effort I've been putting in to give fellow Orioles fans as much accurate, non-orange colored glasses, information about the system as possible.

It’s been very evident how much work you’re putting in.   I hope you’re enjoying it, because we are.   

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

It’s been very evident how much work you’re putting in.   I hope you’re enjoying it, because we are.   

I'm actually enjoying it more than i have the last few years where I was getting burnt out. Luke's really as allowing me to take a step back for awhile but once he left (for good reason) I just kinda said to myself either this is over or I gotta step up. 

The MiLb broadcasts really allows me to not feel that I have to get to the games so much so that helps. It's hard to build those relationships that I used to make due to COVID over the last two years, but honestly I really think I've seen more with the broadcasts then I have since the early 2000s when I used to go to 60-70 games a year. 

[sportsfan8703]

Can Mayo crack the top 5 with Hall’s injury?  He’s put up best case scenario numbers in the FCL so far. 

[waroriole]

9 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Can Mayo crack the top 5 with Hall’s injury?  He’s put up best case scenario numbers in the FCL so far. 

I don’t see how. Even if you say Hall doesn’t count because of injury, how do you say that Mayo is better than any of Cowser, Westburg, or Gunnar?

[RZNJ]

11 hours ago, waroriole said:

I don’t see how. Even if you say Hall doesn’t count because of injury, how do you say that Mayo is better than any of Cowser, Westburg, or Gunnar?

If Henderson continues to struggle in Aberdeen and Mayo impresses at Delmarva, we'll have to consider it.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

If Henderson continues to struggle in Aberdeen and Mayo impresses at Delmarva, we'll have to consider it.

That’s fair I guess.  Henderson is only 5.5 months older than Mayo though and already put up a .944 OPS over 35 games at Delmarva.   Mayo’s stint there will be approximately the same length.   I’d say unless he’s at least in that same .900+ ballpark I wouldn’t consider vaulting him over Henderson.

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s fair I guess.  Henderson is only 5.5 months older than Mayo though and already put up a .944 OPS over 35 games at Delmarva.   Mayo’s stint there will be approximately the same length.   I’d say unless he’s at least in that same .900+ ballpark I wouldn’t consider vaulting him over Henderson.

That was my thinking. Mayo will have just about the same opportunity has Gunnar had in Delmarva. We’ll also get more video, scouting reports, and our own posters reviews that will go to some games.
 

We also need to see how he looks on defense and can he realistically play anywhere other than 1B. Heck, Mountcastle played a lot of SS, in fact all the way till he got to AA. 
 

With this being a power ranking, I’m going to toss out DL Hall since he’s likely thrown his last pitch this season. So AR, and Grod are the clear #1 and #2. After that you could make arguments for Gunnar, Cowser, Mayo, and Westburg, as to who is “top 5” currently. If Mayo shows that he can stick at 3B at least in the future, then I think you may have to put him Westburg given Westburg’s defensive q’s. 
 

FYI, for those comparing Mayo to Mountcastle, Mayo’s arm is graded as a 70(cannon), Mountcastle as a 40(noodle). 

[waroriole]

30 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

That was my thinking. Mayo will have just about the same opportunity has Gunnar had in Delmarva. We’ll also get more video, scouting reports, and our own posters reviews that will go to some games.
 

We also need to see how he looks on defense and can he realistically play anywhere other than 1B. Heck, Mountcastle played a lot of SS, in fact all the way till he got to AA. 
 

With this being a power ranking, I’m going to toss out DL Hall since he’s likely thrown his last pitch this season. So AR, and Grod are the clear #1 and #2. After that you could make arguments for Gunnar, Cowser, Mayo, and Westburg, as to who is “top 5” currently. If Mayo shows that he can stick at 3B at least in the future, then I think you may have to put him Westburg given Westburg’s defensive q’s. 
 

FYI, for those comparing Mayo to Mountcastle, Mayo’s arm is graded as a 70(cannon), Mountcastle as a 40(noodle). 

What defensive Qs does Westburg have? Did you mean Gunnar? Westburg has hit very well at Aberdeen. We should probably be considering him for #3 prospect. 

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, waroriole said:

What defensive Qs does Westburg have? Did you mean Gunnar? Westburg has hit very well at Aberdeen. We should probably be considering him for #3 prospect. 

Westburg’s arm.  He may have to move to 2B.