2022 early look top prospects

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

My gut tells me that at this point Elias won't take a chance on a High School kid at 1-1. Despite the improvements in our minor league system he still has to hit on every first round pick (especially when it's THE top pick), and college players have the benefit of better analytics, stiffer competition, and are closer to the big leagues. 

 

I'm also leery of these lists and mock drafts where players who haven't stepped on a field in four months are rising or falling based on nothing but conversations online pundits are having with each other during the off season. It strikes me as a particularly silly form of muddy the waters group think who's primary purpose is click bait rather than informed analysis. As others have stated here previously, the only thing that matters is what these guys do next year. Half of them won't even be on our radars come draft day, and 90% won't ever play an inning of major league baseball. 

 

My guess is that there will be three or four college kids now ranked in the 30s or 40s who will step up and set the world on fire in 2022. And Elias & Co. will choose whichever one takes a bonus discount so we can grab some overslot talent (maybe Termarr Johnson or Druw Jones will still be on the board) later in the draft. It won't be sexy, but it'll be the smart move in the long run. 

He picked Correa 1:1.  He picked Tucker 1:5.   I don’t think he’ll hesitate to take a HS hitter if that’s where the talent is.

[Frobby]

On 12/16/2021 at 2:52 PM, Sports Guy said:

I don’t know..with the first pick, I want a player playing a premium position.  If he is already locked into second base at his age, that doesn’t bode well Imo.

Its a big reason why I didn’t want Austin Martin.

 

On 12/16/2021 at 2:53 PM, Can_of_corn said:

My main issue would be if a guy who projects as a second baseman in high school can make the transition to the majors at that position.  A guy that moves off of shortstop is going to have more fallback positions open than someone who can't make it as a second baseman.  I would think that his arm wouldn't be great so he's probably going to be a LF/DH/1B if he can't stick at second.

Saw this from a PerfectGame.org scouting report quoted by Roch today.   Note the comments on defense towards the end:

“Compact strong athletic build. Left-handed hitter, creates easy plus bat speed, attacks balls in the zone but sees the ball extremely well and will not expand, has incredible raw power for his size, hit a violent line drive game home run off a 93 mph fastball, perhaps the top all around hitter in the 2022 class. 6.65 runner in the sixty. Has very quick feet on defense, works low to the ground behind balls, has a chance to stay at shortstop but if not will be a highest level defensive second baseman. Plays with a big personality and leadership skills on and off the field. Excellent student.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/12/bemboom-braced-for-competition-and-rutschmans-arrival.html

That leaves me pretty comfortable he wouldn’t need to move off 2B.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Saw this from a PerfectGame.org scouting report quoted by Roch today.   Note the comments on defense towards the end:

“Compact strong athletic build. Left-handed hitter, creates easy plus bat speed, attacks balls in the zone but sees the ball extremely well and will not expand, has incredible raw power for his size, hit a violent line drive game home run off a 93 mph fastball, perhaps the top all around hitter in the 2022 class. 6.65 runner in the sixty. Has very quick feet on defense, works low to the ground behind balls, has a chance to stay at shortstop but if not will be a highest level defensive second baseman. Plays with a big personality and leadership skills on and off the field. Excellent student.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/12/bemboom-braced-for-competition-and-rutschmans-arrival.html

That leaves me pretty comfortable he wouldn’t need to move off 2B.

I’m not worried as much about that as saying that’s the position for him.

[baltfan]

On 12/20/2021 at 6:35 PM, Frobby said:

 

Saw this from a PerfectGame.org scouting report quoted by Roch today.   Note the comments on defense towards the end:

“Compact strong athletic build. Left-handed hitter, creates easy plus bat speed, attacks balls in the zone but sees the ball extremely well and will not expand, has incredible raw power for his size, hit a violent line drive game home run off a 93 mph fastball, perhaps the top all around hitter in the 2022 class. 6.65 runner in the sixty. Has very quick feet on defense, works low to the ground behind balls, has a chance to stay at shortstop but if not will be a highest level defensive second baseman. Plays with a big personality and leadership skills on and off the field. Excellent student.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/12/bemboom-braced-for-competition-and-rutschmans-arrival.html

That leaves me pretty comfortable he wouldn’t need to move off 2B.

Johnson in the MLB Pipeline interview said Drew Jones is best defensive SS he has ever seen.  Given he is also an elite CF, seems like a no brainer. 

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, baltfan said:

Johnson in the MLB Pipeline interview said Drew Jones is best defensive SS he has ever seen.  Given he is also an elite CF, seems like a no brainer. 

“Best defensive SS he has ever seen” is awfully high praise.    Seems like there’s a lot of hype being thrown around this year for various HS guys.    

[ShoelesJoe]

On 12/19/2021 at 11:51 PM, Frobby said:

He picked Correa 1:1.  He picked Tucker 1:5.   I don’t think he’ll hesitate to take a HS hitter if that’s where the talent is.

Point taken. Obviously we don't have access to Elias' scouting and analytics wrt the current draft class, but do the High School guys near the top now compare favorably with Correa or Tucker when they were drafted? 

[RZNJ]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

“Best defensive SS he has ever seen” is awfully high praise.    Seems like there’s a lot of hype being thrown around this year for various HS guys.    

If the Johnson saying that about Jones is HS prospect Termarr then ..... well?

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

If the Johnson saying that about Jones is HS prospect Termarr then ..... well?

I hadn’t appreciated until reading this that Termarr was the source of the quote.   That puts it in perspective.    

I just listened to the interview.   He’s a baseball rat from a close-knit family of baseball rats.   Seems like a great kid.  I won’t be disappointed if he has a great senior year and is our pick.   
 

 

[baltfan]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

If the Johnson saying that about Jones is HS prospect Termarr then ..... well?

 

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I hadn’t appreciated until reading this that Termarr was the source of the quote.   That puts it in perspective.    

I just listened to the interview.   He’s a baseball rat from a close-knit family of baseball rats.   Seems like a great kid.  I won’t be disappointed if he has a great senior year and is our pick.   
 

 

Yes it was Termarr that said it.  Seems like a pretty good source. 

[Frobby]

51 minutes ago, baltfan said:

 

Yes it was Termarr that said it.  Seems like a pretty good source. 

Well, he’s a 17-18 year old kid from Georgia.   He hasn’t seen that many shortstops.   I was picturing some grizzled scout saying this.   

[baltfan]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, he’s a 17-18 year old kid from Georgia.   He hasn’t seen that many shortstops.   I was picturing some grizzled scout saying this.   

He has toured the country and played against the best of the best.  Odds are that he has seen the best in his age group. He also is a SS himself, so he has an idea.  Of course, a scout would have a broader database to draw from, but the fact the Jones could play not just CF at an elite level but also SS make him a valuable commodity. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, baltfan said:

He has toured the country and played against the best of the best.  Odds are that he has seen the best in his age group. He also is a SS himself, so he has an idea.  Of course, a scout would have a broader database to draw from, but the fact the Jones could play not just CF at an elite level but also SS make him a valuable commodity. 

I am not talking about being the best SS in the class of 2022, or even the last couple of years.   When I read “best shortstop I’ve ever seen,” I was thinking “Better than Andrelton Simmons?   Better than Otto Vizquel?   Better than Ozzie Smith?”  Obviously when the statement is coming from Termarr Johnson, that’s not what you take away from the statement.  And none of that is a knock on Jones.    He’s sounds like a great player.   The O’s have a lot of work to do this spring and summer before making their choice.  

[DocJJ]

I'm sold on Termarr Johnson.

 

This video is awesome:

 

He takes 2 tough sliders down and in, then unleashes on a 94 MPH heater with a lightning quick swing.   That swing is incredible, and the sound it makes is just incredible.

[baltfan]

22 hours ago, DocJJ said:

I'm sold on Termarr Johnson.

 

This video is awesome:

 

He takes 2 tough sliders down and in, then unleashes on a 94 MPH heater with a lightning quick swing.   That swing is incredible, and the sound it makes is just incredible.

Right in the lefty happyzone.  Great sound though and great prospect

[Just Regular]

I'm curious to see what if any Mookie compare contrasts will ensue as Termarr's 2022 begins.   When I think of short players with incredible Hit tools and zone control, that's him.

Betts is currently 11th in Active players on the Batting Average leaderboard.

Top 5 - Miggy, Altuve, Trout, Trea, Cano

Next - Votto, LeMahieu, Blackmon, Brantley, Pujols....then Mookie

Since Termarr's eye is getting the early notice, Betts a little more than Altuve feels like the Hope for the Stars flavor.   Across 2014-2021, Betts is 29th of 443 (~93rd percentile) in Chase Rate, while Altuve is 333rd (~25th percentile).