2022 early look top prospects

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Most of this talk doesn’t matter because so much will change but as of right, I’m not willing to draft a second base only Player with the first pick..not with the amount of talent that seems to be out there.

Would you draft a first baseman?

If Vlad JR had been draft eligible would you pass him up? 

[Jagwar]

49 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would you draft a first baseman?

If Vlad JR had been draft eligible would you pass him up? 

Yes I would have. And to add a speculative comment, I really hope that an international draft is part of the new CBA.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Yes I would have. And to add a speculative comment, I really hope that an international draft is part of the new CBA.

Fair enough.

I'd have a hard time saying no to an 80 projected hit tool.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would you draft a first baseman?

If Vlad JR had been draft eligible would you pass him up? 

Well, it depends on the rest of the draft but generally speaking, no I wouldn’t draft a first baseman with the first pick.

There may be drafts here and there that aren’t as strong at the top and that would cause me to take one…I would say the Tork draft is an example.  The consensus #2 guy was Martin and I felt he was very overrated.

If I’m drafting first, CFer and left side of the IF are at the top of my List.  

Pitcher could be there depending on a lot of things.  An Adley like C I guess but even then, I would have taken Witt.

[calsmanystances]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-top-10-picks-mock-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

1. Orioles: Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays HS (Atlanta)
Considered the best pure high school hitter in decades, Johnson got compared to two Hall of Famers by one scout, who sees him as a mix of Wade Boggs' plate discipline and Vladimir Guerrero Sr.'s bat-to-ball skills. He'd be the first prep middle infielder to go No. 1 since the Twins took Royce Lewis in 2017.

Apologies. I didn't see that this had already been posted.

Edited December 17, 2021 by calsmanystances

[DocJJ]

Geez, if we draft him, I hope his career goes better than Lewis's!

[RZNJ]

If all things are equal you can afford to worry about position of need at the ML level or a SS or CF as opposed to a 2B.  As I said Green and Jones are tooled up players with some questions on the bat.  Sounds like Johnson is the best bet with the bat.  Toolsy can get you a Daz Cameron.  

[Sports Guy]

There is the other side to this…if Johnson is the best combo of upside and “sure thing”, he could end up being the way to go.

One thing I don’t want to see is drafting an athlete and hoping he can become a good baseball player.

[higgybaby]

Is there a way to find a list of 80 rated hit tool players drafted in the past and their success rate in MLB?

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, higgybaby said:

Is there a way to find a list of 80 rated hit tool players drafted in the past and their success rate in MLB?

He wasn't drafted but Jesus Montero was graded very highly for his hit tool and busted hard.

[higgybaby]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He wasn't drafted but Jesus Montero was graded very highly for his hit tool and busted hard.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/making-the-grade-comparing-tools-grades-of-top-100-prospects-past-and-present/?amphtml
 

this is what I’ve found so far. 

[panick]

15 hours ago, calsmanystances said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-top-10-picks-mock-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

1. Orioles: Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays HS (Atlanta)
Considered the best pure high school hitter in decades, Johnson got compared to two Hall of Famers by one scout, who sees him as a mix of Wade Boggs' plate discipline and Vladimir Guerrero Sr.'s bat-to-ball skills. He'd be the first prep middle infielder to go No. 1 since the Twins took Royce Lewis in 2017.

Apologies. I didn't see that this had already been posted.

But can Johnson hit a ball that bounces in the dirt before it gets to homeplate like Guerrero did with the O's?!

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, panick said:

But can Johnson hit a ball that bounces in the dirt before it gets to homeplate like Guerrero did with the O's?!

From the blurb, the answer is he could, but he won’t.   But I’m not in favor of placing such high expectations on high school players.   Hopes are one thing, expectations are another.   

[LookinUp]

Best pure high school hitter in decades is a massive accolade. If that's true, I'm not dinging him much for being a 2B. 

[ShoelesJoe]

My gut tells me that at this point Elias won't take a chance on a High School kid at 1-1. Despite the improvements in our minor league system he still has to hit on every first round pick (especially when it's THE top pick), and college players have the benefit of better analytics, stiffer competition, and are closer to the big leagues. 

 

I'm also leery of these lists and mock drafts where players who haven't stepped on a field in four months are rising or falling based on nothing but conversations online pundits are having with each other during the off season. It strikes me as a particularly silly form of muddy the waters group think who's primary purpose is click bait rather than informed analysis. As others have stated here previously, the only thing that matters is what these guys do next year. Half of them won't even be on our radars come draft day, and 90% won't ever play an inning of major league baseball. 

 

My guess is that there will be three or four college kids now ranked in the 30s or 40s who will step up and set the world on fire in 2022. And Elias & Co. will choose whichever one takes a bonus discount so we can grab some overslot talent (maybe Termarr Johnson or Druw Jones will still be on the board) later in the draft. It won't be sexy, but it'll be the smart move in the long run.