2022 early look top prospects

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, baltfan said:

buck used to say that is what you want.  You don’t want a guy that looks like a grown man at age 17. There isn’t room to develop.  He cited Jeter as an example of a kid who was barely shaving when drafted. 

I understand players filling out and getting stronger but I'd rather start out with Popeye rather than Olive Oil.

[baltfan]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I understand players filling out and getting stronger but I'd rather start out with Popeye rather than Olive Oil.

Druw hardly looks like Olive Oyl.  Maybe like young Machado

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

The only video I saw of Druw Jones, he looked like a beanpole.  I know the bloodlines but you have to hope he really develops physically.   The all sound great before they are drafted.  The more I read the less I think there will be a no brainer at #1. Maybe things change over the next 6 months.

They have yet to play the season that is most relevant to the choice the O’s will make.   Plenty of time for a no-brainer to reveal himself (or not).    

[Can_of_corn]

54 minutes ago, baltfan said:

buck used to say that is what you want.  You don’t want a guy that looks like a grown man at age 17. There isn’t room to develop.  He cited Jeter as an example of a kid who was barely shaving when drafted. 

Buck also said guys with blue eyes didn't hit as well in day games.

[baltfan]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Buck also said guys with blue eyes didn't hit as well in day games.

Don’t be so quick to dismiss. 
 

“It is well known that people with lighter eyes tend to be more sensitive to light, a result of having less pigment in the iris to protect them from sunlight. That can place them at a greater risk of macular degeneration and other eye-related problems. But whether that extends to vision is not clear. 

If there are any differences, they seem to be subtle. There is little or no evidence that darker eye color means greater visual acuity, but one theory holds that it does produce better reaction times.“

….

“Studies have examined this by looking at sports performance. One, at the University of Louisville, found that dark-eyed people performed better at “reactive-type tasks,” like hitting balls, playing defense in a football game and boxing. But people with light eyes did better at “self-paced tasks,” like hitting a golf ball, throwing baseballs or bowling. A similar study of college students found that subjects with darker eyes performed better at hitting racquetballs.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/20/health/20real.html?_r=0

 

[RZNJ]

Let me start by saying when Lindor was a HS prospect I watched video and didn't think he would develop any power so take this for what it's worth.  After watching very limited video here are my opinions. 

Termarr Johnson.  Love the swing but every video just shows him turning on inner half fastballs or BP. I'd feel better if I saw him driving one the opposite way.  Defensively, I'd say there is no chance to stay at SS which has already been said.

 

Druw Jones.  Offensively, he scares me.  There's a ton of projection there.  Looks like a line drive swing right now.  You can dream on this guy but ......  

 

Chase Delauter.  Pass. His swing really scares me. Upper cut with really low bat path. Creates leverage and power but I see him getting beat on high heat against pro pitching.

Brock Jones.  I actually really like this guy. Compact swing, pull power but can go the other way too.  I would not be surprised if he works his way into top 5 consideration by June.

Dylan Lesko. Impressive. Smooth delivery with high 3/4 delivery and 12/6 curve. I hate the risk of a HS pitcher but it might be tempting. 

Brooks Lee. Solid all around. Not exciting but he might be the safest pick out there with considerable, if not exciting upside.  

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Brock Jones.  I actually really like this guy. Compact swing, pull power but can go the other way too.  I would not be surprised if he works his way into top 5 consideration by June.

I did notice ProspectsLive guess the other day guessed Brock Jones the first NCAA bat off the board.   Has Stanford, lefty, patience, power in that writeup in common with Stowers.    Outfielders!

I could imagine four outfielders/three infielders becoming more of a thing as the art of high fastballs and low curves becomes more and more of a science.

It was also notable there wasn't a NCAA ace until mid-round (and then I think first one was Mississippi State's Goose Gossage type guy who may try to stretch out now).   But I doubt in January anyone figured Max Meyer would shove for four Friday nights (pitching equivalent of Kjerstad being better for a few weeks?) and challenge for the top of the draft, and he did.   

Just six more Friday nights until the 21-year-olds play for real.

[calsmanystances]

Q&A with Callis:

Termarr Johnson gets rave reviews for his hit tool, but Druw Jones has the bigger upside. If you picked No. 1, you’re swinging for the fences (Jones), right? --@OneDumbNyuk

If I were really swinging for the fences, I'd go for the guy with the highest ceiling in the 2022 Draft, IMG Academy (Bradenton, Fla.) outfielder Elijah Green. He has crazy tools but also comes with some swing-and-miss concerns, which is why he ranks No. 3 and not No. 1 on our 2022 Draft Top 100 Prospects list.

My strategy with the No. 1 overall pick is simple -- give me the best player available. Don't worry about hitter vs. pitcher, high school vs. college, floor vs. ceiling or trying to move bonus pool money around. Identify the top talent and take him.

I do think the race to go No. 1 is more wide open than usual heading into the year, and a lot can happen between now and when the Orioles exercise the first selection in July. Right now, I keep going back and forth between Jones, a Wesleyan HS (Peachtree Corners, Ga.) center fielder, and Johnson, a Mays HS (Atlanta) shortstop who figures to wind up at second base. Johnson is the best high-school hitter I ever can remember, but Jones (son of Andruw) is going to be at least a solid hitter with plus power to go with plus-plus speed and center-field skills to match.

I'd take Jones, but it's close. It's hard to go wrong betting on bat like Johnson's.

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-inbox-keeping-up-with-termarr-johnson-or-druw-jones

Not that my opinion matters, but I'd go with Johnson. We cant miss on this pick and the "best high-school hitter I can ever remember" is just too much for me to pass on. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by calsmanystances

[calsmanystances]

Callis and Sam Dykstra did some predictions:

No. 1 overall Draft pick

Dykstra: Elijah Green

"Elijah Green goes back to a time when I was down in Cary, North Carolina, last year when I was checking out some of these guys. I got to interview Termarr Johnson, I had a great time talking to him. But Elijah Green, I remember seeing him and seeing the power potential, seeing the athleticism and he seemed like just a standout in the field when I saw him. Now this is based off personal experience, and I know there’s hit tool concerns here. ... And we have to consider who’s making the first overall pick and that’s the Orioles, so do the Orioles like Elijah Green enough to take him 1-1? I don’t know, but I think the tools are just loud enough there to make him a candidate."

Callis: Termarr Johnson

"While I think Elijah Green has the highest ceiling in the Draft, if they go high-school hitter, I think they’re going to go more polished hitter. And Termarr Johnson is the best high-school hitter that I could ever remember. I had a scout compare Termarr Johnson to Vladimir Gurrero Sr.’s bat-to-ball skills with Wade Boggs’ mastery of the strike zone. Which seems like an insane combination and to say about a high-school kid. I just see Termarr Johnson more fits their mold."

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-prospect-predictions-for-2022

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, calsmanystances said:

Callis and Sam Dykstra did some predictions:

No. 1 overall Draft pick

Dykstra: Elijah Green

"Elijah Green goes back to a time when I was down in Cary, North Carolina, last year when I was checking out some of these guys. I got to interview Termarr Johnson, I had a great time talking to him. But Elijah Green, I remember seeing him and seeing the power potential, seeing the athleticism and he seemed like just a standout in the field when I saw him. Now this is based off personal experience, and I know there’s hit tool concerns here. ... And we have to consider who’s making the first overall pick and that’s the Orioles, so do the Orioles like Elijah Green enough to take him 1-1? I don’t know, but I think the tools are just loud enough there to make him a candidate."

Callis: Termarr Johnson

"While I think Elijah Green has the highest ceiling in the Draft, if they go high-school hitter, I think they’re going to go more polished hitter. And Termarr Johnson is the best high-school hitter that I could ever remember. I had a scout compare Termarr Johnson to Vladimir Gurrero Sr.’s bat-to-ball skills with Wade Boggs’ mastery of the strike zone. Which seems like an insane combination and to say about a high-school kid. I just see Termarr Johnson more fits their mold."

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-prospect-predictions-for-2022

I keep waiting for the Soto comp for Johnson.

[RZNJ]

If Druw Jones is at lease a solid hitter with the other attributes discussed, I think I would go with him.  It's a little hard to buy into some of things being said about Termarr Johnson though, but a 70 hitter and maybe an 80?   What's an 80 hitter?   Ted Williams?  Tony Gwynn?   He looks like a good hitter but shouldn't a 70-80 hitter barrel up just about every HS strike he says and hardly miss a pitch?   I read that, statistically Green misses on 50% of his swings.   In the end, I actually do trust the O's to make the right call here.   It will be interesting to see what they do when the time comes.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If Druw Jones is at lease a solid hitter with the other attributes discussed, I think I would go with him.  It's a little hard to buy into some of things being said about Termarr Johnson though, but a 70 hitter and maybe an 80?   What's an 80 hitter?   Ted Williams?  Tony Gwynn?   He looks like a good hitter but shouldn't a 70-80 hitter barrel up just about every HS strike he says and hardly miss a pitch?   I read that, statistically Green misses on 50% of his swings.   In the end, I actually do trust the O's to make the right call here.   It will be interesting to see what they do when the time comes.

They seem awful effusive in their praise but I think they are projecting his future hit tool to that level, not his current one.

[Sports Guy]

Let’s see what kind of progress does Green make this year?  That’s what I want to see.

He may be the guy I want to be the #1 pick the most but he has to make big strides in the swing and miss area.  And not just that but show changes that appear to be sustainable.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s see what kind of progress does Green make this year?  That’s what I want to see.

He may be the guy I want to be the #1 pick the most but he has to make big strides in the swing and miss area.  And not just that but show changes that appear to be sustainable.

Every time I see Green's name I think of Bubba Starling.

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Every time I see Green's name I think of Bubba Starling.

Very similar types. Starling had all of tools except he was a below average hitter.  Jones, Johnson, and maybe even a couple of college guys have enough upside without nearly as much risk as Green. Daz Cameron is another toolsy guy who comes to mind.