Where are the undervalued guys from other organizations?

[wildcard]

Right now Lopez is one of the best 5 starters the O's have.  Like it or not.   And him being a starter does not hurt him from being a 4 inning reliever in the future.  It gets him regular work which has help him develop this year in the majors.

The O's changed Lopez delivery.  They used analytics to explain to him which pitches work and which don't.  They made him be more aggressive in the strike zone.   That netted them a dominating 4 inning pitcher that is better than he has been before.

In May Lopez has a 4.24 ERA with a strikeout an inning  in 5 starts.  In three of those starts he pitched 5 innings or more.  That is after having a 7.48 ERA in April.  That is progress.

I don't know how good Lopez can be but I think its safe to say the O's have gotten more from him than the Brewers or Royals ever did.

[survivedc]

I wonder how much will change as the team inches closer to contention. It made sense for Duquette to give up players/assets with marginal value whereas Elias is trying to give up next to nothing. I’m anticipating some mid level prospect for blocked bench player moves in the next year or so.

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

I’m not sure that’s a logical approach. If all you want is canon fodder, then why not use a canon fodder guy, instead of a guy who actually may have some genuine value if he is used in a different way?

If you just want to throw slop on the mound, then bring up Lowther, put Akin or Wells in the rotation and let them take their lumps.

But Lopez has shown the whole world he can be great for 60-65 pitches and then he drops off a Cliff. So why force him to throw 70+ pitches?

i’m happy to keep him as a starter and a piggyback roll, and I disagree that the bullpen is not good enough to sustain that.

if the current guys aren’t good, bring in other guys, but to say, I’m not going to fix this problem because you just create other problems is ridiculous. Every solution comes with its own set of problems, and you deal with the best set of problems.

Lowther, Akins, and Wells are not slop. They are not cannon fodder. Those are prospects that they hope to develop into decent ML pitchers that will be under years of team control. The Orioles should prioritize their development whether the O's think that is best done at the MiL or ML level. To heck with the major league team. 

 

See my other post about how the O's might see some development potential as a starter with Lopez. He actually had a "quality start" yesterday. Low probability, but they may see that as a better long-term risk. 

 

Overall it seems like you just can't wrap your head and heart around what's going on this year. The Orioles don't care about winning at all. They started the season without a single established and healthy starter on the roster. John Means has looked great, but he had barely pitched 200 ML innings when the season started. They started the year with a bullpen that included two Rule 5 picks and a 36 year old journeyman who had managed to pitch just over 60 innings of ML ball in his career. The team is composed almost entirely of rookies, near rookies, and cast offs from other teams. I don't understand how you could expect much more from this roster or from what is available in the high minors. 

 

This is also a very frustrating stretch of bad baseball. The O's will have stretches where they look a lot better. 

[HowAboutThat]

10 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Lowther, Akins, and Wells are not slop. They are not cannon fodder. Those are prospects that they hope to develop into decent ML pitchers that will be under years of team control. The Orioles should prioritize their development whether the O's think that is best done at the MiL or ML level. To heck with the major league team. 

 

See my other post about how the O's might see some development potential as a starter with Lopez. He actually had a "quality start" yesterday. Low probability, but they may see that as a better long-term risk. 

 

Overall it seems like you just can't wrap your head and heart around what's going on this year. The Orioles don't care about winning at all. They started the season without a single established and healthy starter on the roster. John Means has looked great, but he had barely pitched 200 ML innings when the season started. They started the year with a bullpen that included two Rule 5 picks and a 36 year old journeyman who had managed to pitch just over 60 innings of ML ball in his career. The team is composed almost entirely of rookies, near rookies, and cast offs from other teams. I don't understand how you could expect much more from this roster or from what is available in the high minors. 

 

This is also a very frustrating stretch of bad baseball. The O's will have stretches where they look a lot better. 

Yes, you are correct I should not have used that word, they are definitely not “slop.” My point was that if you just want to burn innings, bring up the prospects, and let them pitch, and they can gain valuable MLB experience even if they are poor.

Lopez is a known quantity at this point, he is very clear about what he can and cannot do at this point, so either use him within his parameters, or don’t use him at all

[Moose Milligan]

26 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Lowther, Akins, and Wells are not slop. They are not cannon fodder. 

 

 

Yeah, I beg to differ.

[ChuckS]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, I beg to differ.

It remains to be seen. 

Lowther and Akin need to improve their command a little bit and they could be valuable either as starters or relievers.  Akin more likely a reliever and Lowther more likely a starter.   I would bet on at least one of the two providing some good value at some point. Wells has a tougher mountain to climb.  

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

It remains to be seen. 

Lowther and Akin need to improve their command a little bit and they could be valuable either as starters or relievers.  Akin more likely a reliever and Lowther more likely a starter.   I would bet on at least one of the two providing some good value at some point. Wells has a tougher mountain to climb.  

It remains to be seen, but c'mon.  

I want you to ask yourself the following:  If we got any of those guys back in a trade, what would your initial reaction be?  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It remains to be seen, but c'mon.  

I want you to ask yourself the following:  If we got any of those guys back in a trade, what would your initial reaction be?  

Depends on what we traded.  If they were the third piece in a Means deal, for example, I would be happy.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, survivedc said:

I wonder how much will change as the team inches closer to contention. It made sense for Duquette to give up players/assets with marginal value whereas Elias is trying to give up next to nothing. I’m anticipating some mid level prospect for blocked bench player moves in the next year or so.

I don't know if there will be blocked players for the O's in the next year.  Elias acquiring players mostly in the low minors may cause that not to happen

Player that need to be added to the 40 man roster:

(11)  DL Hall, Bradish, Vavra, Adam Hall, Kevin Smith, McCoy, Dorrian by Nov.  Grayson, and Adley by April.  Plus a major league SS and 3B. 

Plus likely to come off the 40 man roster:

(9) Armstrong,  Severino, Galvis, Matt Harvey, Valaika, Richie Martin, Franco, Waddell, Chris Davis 

(5) on the bubble:  Alex Wells, Bannon, Urias, Wilkerson, Lakins

14 total;  Pick 12 needed because Davis is on the 60 day IL 

 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Depends on what we traded.  If they were the third piece in a Means deal, for example, I would be happy.

Of course, it depends on what we traded.  But you yourself just said if they were the third piece for a guy like Means...which tells me that you probably view them as a lower tier piece, essentially fungible.  If any of those guys is a 3rd piece in a Means trade it probably...means...that they're not the centerpiece of the deal and could have been swapped for another piece, just the same.

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Of course, it depends on what we traded.  But you yourself just said if they were the third piece for a guy like Means...which tells me that you probably view them as a lower tier piece, essentially fungible.  If any of those guys is a 3rd piece in a Means trade it probably...means...that they're not the centerpiece of the deal and could have been swapped for another piece, just the same.

 

Well, you should get 2 very highly rated prospects for Means plus others.  Any of those guys who would be a solid 3rd piece imo.

They could be the centerpiece for a lot of different deals.  They could be the second piece in a Mancini deal.

[Redskins Rick]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, you should get 2 very highly rated prospects for Means plus others.  Any of those guys who would be a solid 3rd piece imo.

They could be the centerpiece for a lot of different deals.  They could be the second piece in a Mancini deal.

You mean like the haul we got for Manny?

Prospects are and will always be iffy.

[foxfield]

On 5/26/2021 at 1:16 PM, Tony-OH said:

When Elias took over, we were told Sig's analytics would be able to identify players in other organizations that would be undervalued and acquired. Apparently, the rest of the league are doing the same things so it's no longer an advantage and the guys they have found have generally failed.

If you want to know why the team has completely stunk while trying to rebuild, it's been the absolute failure of Elias/Sig to acquire players that can help at the major league level through undervalued players. While we still don't know about the talent received in trades or the drafting ability of Sig/Elias, what we do know is they get an F at acquiring major league ready talent that is under utilized by other organizations.

Rio Ruiz: Fail
Wojo: Fail
Severino; Backup catcher at best on a good team
Valiaka: Utility guy at best
Andrew Velazquez: fail
Martin: .581 OPS, now an injury prone AAA guy.
Eshelmen: Long guy/AAA guy
Fulmer: Gave him quick look, gave up on him, quickly picked up and now pitching in Red bullpen with a 4.19 FIP
Urias: Fail
Alberto: back up guy or lower division starter
Armstrong: Middle relief at best
Plutko: long guy innings eater used poorly by coaching staff
Lakins: Middle reliever
Sulser: middle reliever
Valdez: Did they find him because of analytics or got lucky, not sure?
Broxton: fail
Aaron Brooks: Fail

 

I dont disagree with a thing regarding your list.  But I think you are looking for something they are not.  They are merely looking to plug warm bodies who are cheap into positions at the ML level.  The talent is at AA and of course a few of the decent pieces we already had are largely here.  I want to win too.  But they have literally said they are focused on something besides wins at the ML level.  They are doing exactly that.  And I would expect next year for them to feel differently with how the ML team performs and how well the Coaches perform as well.

I just cant get upset at a Manager's decisions when he is working with cardboard cutouts holding spots and taking up time.

I will also say that it would be nice if one or two of the cardboard cutouts turned out to be something usable and I think that is a fair criticism.  Anyway, long and short of it is I think you are right in your assessment of where we are currently at the ML level. But I disagree that Sig/Elias have missed terribly.  I think next year is time to start holding everyone accountable at all levels.  I think Elias will say the same.....We will see.

Edit to add:  I think it's like this.  It's always darkest before dawn.  Well, its getting late and it's dark.  But next year is the dawn we have awaited.  Now, I am not ready to say it's the dawn of a new championship march.  But let's let the sun get up before we declare the day a total waste.

[ChuckS]

47 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It remains to be seen, but c'mon.  

I want you to ask yourself the following:  If we got any of those guys back in a trade, what would your initial reaction be?  

I would probably look at Zac Lowther's minor league numbers and get pretty excited. He's been top ten in our system since we drafted him. How many top ten system guys have we gotten back in any of Elias' trades?

They both have good fastballs and average secondaries.   Not terrible command but they are nibblers. I've always thought Akin could be a decent 2-3 inning bullpen arm and Lowther a somewhat dependable 4/5 starter.  They need to put it together but I don't see either being a lost cause. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I would probably look at Zac Lowther's minor league numbers and get pretty excited. He's been top ten in our system since we drafted him. How many top ten system guys have we gotten back in any of Elias' trades?

They both have good fastballs and average secondaries.   Not terrible command but they are nibblers. I've always thought Akin could be a decent 2-3 inning bullpen arm and Lowther a somewhat dependable 4/5 starter.  They need to put it together but I don't see either being a lost cause. 

Lowther barely cracks 90 mph.  I agree, his numbers are nice but when you see his stuff it's pretty underwhelming.  

I'm not saying "get off my lawn" with relying on rankings, but for far too long this board has been obsessed over rankings and judging players based on them.  Just because Lowther is in our Top 10 doesn't mean much, IMO.  

You hit the nail on the head, average secondaries and nibblers.  

I'm not saying these guys don't deserve chances because they do.  But I don't see how they're going to stick with what they bring to the table.