Guthrie Doubters stand up

[Camden_yardbird]

Never jumped ship but I have never given huge praise to Guthrie...but I have always said I need more than a few starts.

Give me the next month when he sees the AL east 4-5 times and then I will make my decision on Guthrie.

We need more starts.

[SilentJames]

Low BABIP also means lucky...He needs to at least be around 270.

An ultra low BABIP means that a lot of balls are being put in play and resulting in outs. Meaning hes got a stellar defense or just getting a lot of grounders right at people, etc etc.

And average BABIP (according to BP) is 290

[Leitch]

Low BABIP also means lucky...He needs to at least be around 270.

Still don't follow. Luck=good.

As long as the peripherals are solid, you have a good idea of his skillset, if you're talking player evaluation purposes. The rest is results, which we always want to be good right?

[SilentJames]

The thing that impresses me so much about Guthrie is his poise. In everything he does. OIn the mound, talking with the press, in the dugout. Everything he does he does right with confidence and a sense of determination.

There is simply something about him, like the intangables one finds in a QB, that tells me he will be a success here. He may never be an ace, but he will be a solid 2-3 type pitcher.

[Leitch]

Question. Do the best pitchers in baseball tend to have lower BABIP than the worst pitchers?

Johan Santana, 2006: 270

Roger Clemens, 2004: .283

Jake Peavy, 2004: .307

[Sports Guy]

During ST you said that there was no reason to try Guthrie in the rotation, that it was basically a waste of time.

At the time, it was. However, what else did i say with that? Why don't you follow it up with the rest of what i said or do you just not want to do that?

I also said if there were injuries, that at that point i wouldn't mind him getting the chance. Loewen and Wright went down..That changed things.

We have the posts to prove it.

Yes i know...You all have a strange obsession with me.

Instead of just admitting how wrong you look now, you just downplay all of the guy's success up to this point.

Oh, he has definitely pitched better than i thought he would...I was wrong about that. I am not denying that one bit. However, everyone on here is annoiting him a front to middle of the rotation guy after 12 big league starts and a mediocre MiL career. If he was a Yankee, you would all be saying he is a fluke.

His velocity seems to be down a bit and he's still getting it done.

And this doesn't concern you? By the middle of August(or right around there), he will be at his career high for IP(or close to it). He is losing velocity now. That is not a good thing.

To poo poo as "something that happens" is wrong.

Now, if he is just going through a dead arm(which i have wondered myself), that is fine. But i am not so sure dead arm periods usually last this long.

[33rdst]

I agree completely. He's very mature. I'm just glad we got him.

[SilentJames]

Still don't follow. Luck=good.

As long as the peripherals are solid, you have a good idea of his skillset, if you're talking player evaluation purposes. The rest is results, which we always want to be good right?

If a lot of balls are being put in play than sooner or later they are going to be hits rather than outs.

Abnormally low BABIP means that a disproportionate amount of balls put in play are outs, and that is contributing more to the great numbers than anything else. So, what happens if the defense changes, or these outs suddenly take different hops and become hits? It is a measure of luck.

Conversely, an ultra HIGH BABIP could explain an otherwise good pitcher being foiled by a shoddy defense.

[Moose Milligan]

Yes i know...You all have a strange obsession with me.

SG, you're pretty full of yourself and a know-it-all. Thats where the "obsession" comes into place...don't confuse it for flattery

It's also fun trying to see you defend yourself when it comes to things like this.

[Sports Guy]

Still don't follow. Luck=good.

As long as the peripherals are solid, you have a good idea of his skillset, if you're talking player evaluation purposes. The rest is results, which we always want to be good right?

I want him to be good without the luck...That is my point.

You are one of the good stat guys around here....You know as well as i do that if we go into the offseason with Guthrie having a 5.5 K rate, 2 BB rate and 220 BABIP and ultra low FB/HR %, that there would be a lot of question if he can duplicate it.

However, the k, BB and homer rate are all going up...The BABIP is still very low but it is slowly climbing.

I want to see these things.

I want to see him without the luck.

A good example is this month...Through today, he has a 4.11 ERA. So, even though he has been shaky, his ERA is still solid.

I am very encouraged by that overall.

[Sports Guy]

The thing that impresses me so much about Guthrie is his poise. In everything he does. OIn the mound, talking with the press, in the dugout. Everything he does he does right with confidence and a sense of determination.

There is simply something about him, like the intangables one finds in a QB, that tells me he will be a success here. He may never be an ace, but he will be a solid 2-3 type pitcher.

Yea, you have to like the "other stuff" about Guthrie:

1) Poise

2) Fielding

3) Athelticism

4) Work ethic

5) Coachability

6) Intelligence

[Leitch]

If a lot of balls are being put in play than sooner or later they are going to be hits rather than outs.

Abnormally low BABIP means that a disproportionate amount of balls put in play are outs, and that is contributing more to the great numbers than anything else. So, what happens if the defense changes, or these outs suddenly take different hops and become hits? It is a measure of luck.

Conversely, an ultra HIGH BABIP could explain an otherwise good pitcher being foiled by a shoddy defense.

I know what abnormally high and low BABIPs mean.

What I don't understand is why you would ever not want a ball in play to be an out. Peripherals give you the best idea of a pitcher's skillset.

[Sports Guy]

SG, you're pretty full of yourself and a know-it-all. Thats where the "obsession" comes into place...don't confuse it for flattery

It's also fun trying to see you defend yourself when it comes to things like this.

Whatever the reason, the obsession is still there.

[SilentJames]

I know what abnormally high and low BABIPs mean.

What I don't understand is why you would ever not want a ball in play to be an out. Peripherals give you the best idea of a pitcher's skillset.

Because abnormally high or low numbers in this stat can mask just what type he is.

If it is low, is he truly a great groundball pitcher (ie Chien Wang) or is he getting the benefit of a very solid defense (Orioles number 2 in the bigs.) And on a team with a lesser defense some of the deficiencies may shine through more.

Vice versa for the other end.

[SilentJames]

Whatever the reason, the obsession is still there.

It doesn't hurt the fact that you make up about 1/5 of the front pages posts on any given day.