2021 1st round pick (5): Colton Cowser - OF - (Junior) Sam Houston University

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

I think many are overrating Lawlar here.

I was just about to post the same thing, but perhaps not as strongly.

I do know that we heard nothing about the top of this draft that said it was anything special. There wasn't premium talent, though I think Mayer might have been close. Even he fell to 4 for a reason. Might turn out to be a great player but there was no clear cut #1 this year, so none of the guys we missed on profile as crazy (Bryce Harper) good.

[Camden_yardbird]

Davis and Cowser are both considered real head scratchers by the Pirates and Orioles, two organizations that are perennially cheap and and at the bottom of their divisions.  Two organizations that, but for a brief stretch in the 2010's are the laughing stock of MLB, struggle to stay competitive, are known for super hit and miss farm systems, and fail to stay relevant.

These teams don't get to recieve the benefit of the doubt when they make picks like this.  They get to recieve every inch of criticism leveled at them.

[MurphDogg]

54 minutes ago, Getz said:

Do you really expect Stewart or McKenna to have any impact on a contending team!?

McKenna could certainly be a backup centerfielder / pinch runner / late inning defensive upgrade on a contending team. That role isn't necessary when you have multiple starting quality center fielders like Mullins, Hays and hopefully Cowser.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, LTO's said:

The scenario that actually happened is that the Orioles like Cowser more than Lawlar. I think many are overrating Lawlar here. Easily the lowest offensive ceiling out of the HS SS and there are many reports that teams soured on him considerably as the summer went along. Boston for example didn't even have him as an option at 4 apparently. I'd imagine that was the case with everybody 1-5. With Lawlar you get a lot of risk and comparatively limited upside all at a premium cost. If they would've passed on Mayer or Leiter for Cower then that would've been extremely questionable. 

I was really hoping for Leiter to slip to the Orioles. but I knew that was a long shot and not going to happen because of the Red Sox picking at #4. 

[John Gibson]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course they could have. Again, every team signs guys over slot all the time.

Now, the Os may not have been able to take Servideo and instead they take some underslot guy.  Ok, so be it.  You obviously can’t slot or overslot guys with every pick but you can do it with some picks, no matter what your draft pool allotment is.

If having a more watchable product means I don’t get the Anthony Servideos of the world, in good with that.

And btw, how much evidence do we even have that spending over slot for guys drafted in the later rounds is even worth it?

Think the Os are excited they paid Fenter a million bucks as a 7th rounder?  

Of course you can still go underslot with others but bottom line - having an extra 1.6m by picking 2nd instead of 5th allows a lot more aggressiveness.

I don't know how successful the strategy has been overall but I do think it's been successful for the places that Elias has been employed.  Correa under / McCullers over, Bregman under / Cameron over.    I don't think too many Astros fans are upset in retrospect with that draft approach that is very similar to what Elias is doing in Baltimore despite also having very high picks at the time.

[DirtyBird]

54 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Expect? No.  But they are still in the mix at this point. 

No, they aren't

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

[Getz]

7 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

McKenna could certainly be a backup centerfielder / pinch runner / late inning defensive upgrade on a contending team. That role isn't necessary when you have multiple starting quality center fielders like Mullins, Hays and hopefully Cowser.

So we shouldn't have drafted Cowser because McKenna can be a backup CF. Got you.

[foxfield]

5 minutes ago, LTO's said:

The scenario that actually happened is that the Orioles like Cowser more than Lawlar. I think many are overrating Lawlar here. Easily the lowest offensive ceiling out of the HS SS and there are many reports that teams soured on him considerably as the summer went along. Boston for example didn't even have him as an option at 4 apparently. I'd imagine that was the case with everybody 1-5. With Lawlar you get a lot of risk and comparatively limited upside all at a premium cost. If they would've passed on Mayer or Leiter for Cower then that would've been extremely questionable. 

All of this is fair.  In Feb, Cowser was not seen as a true CF.  In July he is.   In Feb, Mullins was getting his final shot...now some think he is the best CF in baseball not named Trout.  We want answers and we want immediate results.  It would be nice. 

It doesn't translate that way, but thoughts do change and are fluid.  The Orioles need some serious good mojo.  Elias certainly has conviction...but as the crowd here continues to get more and more restless, the trial of Mike Elias may lead to a conviction as well.

But it says here, that until we have a better ownership situation, this is the best chance for a reset since 1983.  No, we didn't get the shiny pony, but it wasn't a lump of coal or a pair of socks either.  Hindsite is always 20-20 or so they say...

Lets just get more talent and then let em play.  We need talent and lots of it. 

[EdwinRip]

FanGraphs currently rates Lawler the #70 prospect in all of baseball with Cowser coming in at #85. This is a very reputable source.  If they feel the difference is that small, how can anyone feel that we missed out on the slam dunk better prospect and that the O’s definitively liked Lawler more. I imaged that the 2 players were virtually equal on Elias’ board with the tiebreaker being some $ saved. That being said, the only thing we know is that many national pundits view these 2 players very similarly.

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, LTO's said:

The scenario that actually happened is that the Orioles like Cowser more than Lawlar. I think many are overrating Lawlar here. Easily the lowest offensive ceiling out of the HS SS and there are many reports that teams soured on him considerably as the summer went along. Boston for example didn't even have him as an option at 4 apparently. I'd imagine that was the case with everybody 1-5. With Lawlar you get a lot of risk and comparatively limited upside all at a premium cost. If they would've passed on Mayer or Leiter for Cower then that would've been extremely questionable. 

He has been the consensus best position player (and many felt best overall player) for a year.  The only 3 that have consistently been near or at the top are Lawlar and the Vandy boys.

Its possible regression has happened and people have been lazy with rankings.  That does happen.

OToH, when everyone who does evaluations, including people who have been in the game and done it for ML teams rate him consistently as the best, I think we have to at least give that serious consideration.

I don’t really care what BA or MLB.com do it but when guys like Faleris and Loftus are consistently rating them high, I think that is something to consider.  Certainly doesn’t mean everything but it’s worth considering.  A years worth of data and rankings mean a lot more to me than a guy who rises after having a good 3 months.

[Sports Guy]

I hope they get him playing this year.  He should go to Delmarva or Aberdeen this year.  Next year he should be starting at Aberdeen at worse and if things go as I assume they think they should, he should be in Bowie by June.

[MurphDogg]

19 minutes ago, Getz said:

So we shouldn't have drafted Cowser because McKenna can be a backup CF. Got you.

I assume this is sarcasm(?), but just in case, this is pretty obviously not what I was saying.

I was merely responding to the claim that McKenna couldn't have an impact on a contending team. 

You don't draft for need in the MLB draft anyway, so any impact Cowser has on the MLB team's outfield situation is a question for 2-3 years down the road and a ton can change. A year ago, few would have thought that Cedric Mullins could have an impact on a contending team (or no more of an impact that I am suggesting McKenna could have). Things change.

[joelala]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I hope they get him playing this year.  He should go to Delmarva or Aberdeen this year.  Next year he should be starting at Aberdeen at worse and if things go as I assume they think they should, he should be in Bowie by June.

I agree but I think he’ll finish the year in Bowie next year and we’ll see him late in ‘23 or OD ‘24 on the big team. 

[LTO's]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has been the consensus best position player (and many felt best overall player) for a year.

This is not true in the slightest but I'm sure you know that.