2021 1st round pick (5): Colton Cowser - OF - (Junior) Sam Houston University

[Sports Guy]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30962284/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-draft-rankings-10-there-no-1-prospect-ahead-vanderbilt-two-aces
 

From Feb of this year.

 

Kylie McDaniel had Lawlar #1.  Cowser was #36.  

[Sports Guy]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/prospects365.com/2020/11/09/ian-smiths-2021-mlb-mock-draft-1-0/amp/

[odogs101]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30962284/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-draft-rankings-10-there-no-1-prospect-ahead-vanderbilt-two-aces
 

From Feb of this year.

 

Kylie McDaniel had Lawlar #1.  Cowser was #36.  

I don't have ESPN Insider but I'm curious where Davis ranked in Feb.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, odogs101 said:

I don't have ESPN Insider but I'm curious where Davis ranked in Feb.

35th

[DrungoHazewood]

So the way I understand this, all drafts are graded against how closely they follow Baseball America and the MLB projections the day of the draft.  Right?  BA says 10 they take at five... fail.  BA says five and they take at 10... win!

I guess that makes sense since 90% of the board hasn't seen any of these guys outside of YouTube clips and brief written descriptions, so if the guy's not on the cover of BA then "what the... why didn't we take the one guy I'd heard of?!?!?".

[sevastras]

From The Athletic-

Quote

From a hitting standpoint, Cowser has long had a knack for barreling the ball. Holland, a former minor-league player and minor-league coach, has been his guide throughout his development. Holland has worked with hitters in the Houston area for years, from former major leaguers like Carl Crawford, Michael Bourn and Jay Bruce to current major leaguers like Robbie Grossman, Jed Lowrie and Cavan Biggio. Cowser was about 7 years old when he first started working with Holland, whose son, Korey, now an outfielder in the Indians’ system, was on the same youth team as Cowser.

Quote

Ask evaluators about the 21-year-old Cowser and the prevailing sentiment is some variation of this kid can really hit. Cowser has always hit, and once he physically matured, tapped into some power

Quote

But because of his bat, the Houston-area native has a relatively high floor for a first-rounder and could be a fast riser to the major leagues.

And Law's feelings:

Quote

The Orioles' pick of Colton Cowser almost certainly indicates that they're pursuing the same draft strategy as last year -- take a college hitter they like who'll sign for a discount to their pick's recommended slot bonus, then go over slot with subsequent selections. Cowser is one of the better bats in the college class, but he's a corner outfielder, so there's some more pressure on his bat to justify the pick. Who they take in later rounds really matters though -- we can't judge this pick in isolation.

 

[Sports Guy]

I find a comp of Austin Martin and Cowser interesting.

For whatever reason, the Os didn’t take Martin last year.  That’s a decision that was perfectly ok with.  
 

That being said, these two seem to profile similarly. Cowser seems to have less of a power question mark but Martin is a potential SS or maybe CFer.  Cowser is a potential CFer with corners more likely (more likely meaning it’s easier to play and if there is any issues with his defense, Cowser won’t be in CF)

You also have Mullins and Haskin in the organization but that’s ok.  You don’t draft that way.

Anyways, Martin was said to be the best pure college hitter in the draft last year, just as Cowser is this year.

If that is what Elias values, why go with Cowser now and pass on Martin last year?  Was it the power question mark?  Was it just about money?

[Ruzious]

The Atlantic labels him a corner OFer, but other analysts say he has a reasonable chance to stick in CF.  He seems to have the arm and speed tools to excel in the OF.  

[sevastras]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I find a comp of Austin Martin and Cowser interesting.

For whatever reason, the Os didn’t take Martin last year.  That’s a decision that was perfectly ok with.  
 

That being said, these two seem to profile similarly. Cowser seems to have less of a power question mark but Martin is a potential SS or maybe CFer.  Cowser is a potential CFer with corners more likely (more likely meaning it’s easier to play and if there is any issues with his defense, Cowser won’t be in CF)

You also have Mullins and Haskin in the organization but that’s ok.  You don’t draft that way.

Anyways, Martin was said to be the best pure college hitter in the draft last year, just as Cowser is this year.

If that is what Elias values, why go with Cowser now and pass on Martin last year?  Was it the power question mark?  Was it just about money?

I had the feeling of character issues with Martin, but I could be completely wrong.  But yes, money was definitely a play.  Cowser is only seen as a corner guy because of his average arm.  He can cover the ground(not Mullins cover, but cover).  He is what I like in a college player as far as slower to physically mature.  I have said before, dont draft the high schooler who has a full beard at 16.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

So the way I understand this, all drafts are graded against how closely they follow Baseball America and the MLB projections the day of the draft.  Right?  BA says 10 they take at five... fail.  BA says five and they take at 10... win!

I guess that makes sense since 90% of the board hasn't seen any of these guys outside of YouTube clips and brief written descriptions, so if the guy's not on the cover of BA then "what the... why didn't we take the one guy I'd heard of?!?!?".

Cowser isn’t really a reach.  Faleris had him 8th, FG had him 7th.  You can justify him with this pick.

What you can’t do, imo, is justify him over Lawlar.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, sevastras said:

I had the feeling of character issues with Martin, but I could be completely wrong.  But yes, money was definitely a play.  Cowser is only seen as a corner guy because of his average arm.  He can cover the ground(not Mullins cover, but cover).  He is what I like in a college player as far as slower to physically mature.  I have said before, dont draft the high schooler who has a full beard at 16.

Maybe not full time CF, but as a COF that can play CF in a pinch, is always a good thing.

[Hank Scorpio]

3 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

The Atlantic labels him a corner OFer, but other analysts say he has a reasonable chance to stick in CF.  He seems to have the arm and speed tools to excel in the OF.  

His arm can't be worse than Mullins'.

[sevastras]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Cowser isn’t really a reach.  Faleris had him 8th, FG had him 7th.  You can justify him with this pick.

What you can’t do, imo, is justify him over Lawlar.

I can.  Lawlar is a higher ceiling lower floor guy and Cowser is a high floor lower ceiling guy who is closer to being MLB ready.  Safer pick that can help you sooner.  I would rather they picked Lawlar or Benny Montgomery or Kahlil Watson but this is the safer pick.  Gamble with Lonnie White Jr or James Wood in the next rounds

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, sevastras said:

I can.  Lawlar is a higher ceiling lower floor guy and Cowser is a high floor lower ceiling guy who is closer to being MLB ready.  Safer pick that can help you sooner.  I would rather they picked Lawlar or Benny Montgomery or Kahlil Watson but this is the safer pick.  Gamble with Lonnie White Jr or James Wood in the next rounds

Why are you losing on purpose to draft the safe player?  
 

They could have won (the equivalent) to 75-80 games in 2020 and gotten a “safe pick” in the middle third to half way through the first round.
 

 

[Redskins Rick]

Elias is doing a good sales job.

Quote

Elias called Cowser a “five-tool player,” meaning he can hit for power and average, runs well, and plays strong defense with an above-average throwing arm. That arm, Elias said, could play in right field if needed, but he sees Cowser as a center fielder.