2021 1st round pick (5): Colton Cowser - OF - (Junior) Sam Houston University

[LookinUp]

35 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I think we can we all agree that - no matter whether or not you can make the argument that Cowser had merit being the 5th pick - he was picked in large part because they figure he'll be an under-slot sign?     

 

24 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I don't think so. I think the savings will be smaller than they were with Kjerstad by a decent amount. I think the Orioles wanted Cowser if they couldn't get Leiter or Mayer. Lawler was not an option (Boston was never in on him either which is interesting) and something happened with Watson that we aren't privy to.

 

Just to piggy back on LTO, I think it was Shepherd last night who said Cowser wasn't really an under slot guy. I don't think the savings will be massive, though I certainly expect some. I do think that Lawler was very hard to pin down where he'd be drafted before the draft for a reason. My best guess is very aggressive representation. Same with Watson, but they're both just guesses.

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Tanking the team into the ground just to select higher floor, lower ceiling guys with the resulting top 5 draft picks 2 years in a row?

I do think that losing helps with draft and that's part of the motivation, but there are many reasons to think that the O's aren't spending money because 1) they'd view it as wasted on a bad team in any event and 2) the Angelos situation.

This team seems more like a strip down for sale thing than anything else, IMO. I am supportive, but am getting tired of it too.

[Hazmat]

19 minutes ago, deward said:

I think you have to consider one more possibility - Lawler didn't want to be here. There was plenty of buzz that he would be comfortable going on to Vandy and shooting for 1-1 in 2023 if he was unhappy with yesterday's outcome.

I mentioned this possibility previously.  While we'll never know for sure, I think it's a likely explanation.  He (his advisor) probably told the O's to not pick him as he preferred to go to AZ if he fell out of the top 4.  It's possible he wanted to go to either TX or AZ.

[waroriole]

13 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Tanking the team into the ground just to select higher floor, lower ceiling guys with the resulting top 5 draft picks 2 years in a row?

You think that’s the reason the team has been bad? To get a higher draft pick? Otherwise, we’d be in playoff contention?

[Sports Guy]

54 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I’ve seen several people make this comment and it’s pretty disingenuous. Cowser or Lawlar have nothing to do with whether this is a good or bad team. Drafting Lawlar doesn’t make us a better team any more than Cowser. Obviously Elias sees the benefit in under slot for the 1st round. He, and our scouts, have a much better feel for signability and career progression than any of the armchair scouts on this site. 

The only thing you gain by losing on purpose is getting a high pick.   That’s why people are saying it and they are correct for doing so.

[Yardball85]

11 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

The Birds did bring Cowser in to kick his wheels, so he was on their short list.

 

Not that it's a terrible thing, but they have an awful lot of outfielders for the contending window: Mullins, Hays, Haskin, Kjerstad, Cowser, Stowers, and potentially still Diaz/Stewart/Santander/McKenna.

[waroriole]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

The only thing you gain by losing on purpose is getting a high pick.   That’s why people are saying it and they are correct for doing so.

So you don’t get an increased draft pool allotment that allows you to implement the strategy that Elias is using?

[LookinUp]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The only thing you gain by losing on purpose is getting a high pick.   That’s why people are saying it and they are correct for doing so.

No. They gain dollars. And they're not losing on purpose necessarily. They're being extremely cheap, which results in losing.

I think the motivation is $, not wins/losses.

 

[Edit: to be clear, I think a better draft slot is part of the motivation, but not everything. The O's are being so cheap in every aspect of things that it screams other $ factors are in play. Not just draft slotting.]

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

You think that’s the reason the team has been bad? To get a higher draft pick? 

There could be other factors, like a potential sale of the team on the horizon, but I do believe that is a significant part of it, yes.

Elias was involved in Houston's rebuild which was largely accomplished on the back of tanking, after all.

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Otherwise, we’d be in playoff contention?

Of course not, don't be ridiculous.

But there is, believe it or not, some daylight between "100+ losses and painful to watch" and "watchable."

[BohKnowsBmore]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-recap-2/

Fangraphs's Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein on Colton Cowser:

Quote

 

KG: Baltimore was seen as a team that would look to cut a deal, but late rumors had them willing to dance with the high school shortstop class should the right player present himself. That is exactly what happened — the Orioles spent much of Sunday internally debating Watson — but at the end of the day, they decided to cut the deal most anticipated. Cowser makes the most sense if that’s the decided upon strategy, as many teams saw him as a legitimate top-10 talent and arguably the second-best pure college bat in the draft.

EL: We like Cowser enough that he’ll immediately enter our top 100 pro prospects at about 90 overall. He has the best hit tool in this draft. Scouts and analysts alike admire Cowser. Scouts dig his frame and aptitude in center field as well as his well-rounded offensive skills, while analysts think he has sneaky power (max exit velos close to 110 mph) and consider his feel for contact to be superlative. This is absolutely the bat with whom to cut a deal, and Baltimore did it for a second straight year.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

No. They gain dollars. And they're not losing on purpose necessarily. They're being extremely cheap, which results in losing.

I think the motivation is $, not wins/losses.

Yes but again, most of those dollars are because you are drafting higher.

For example, the Os have a draft pool of 11.9M this year.  The Giants, picking 14th, have a draft pool of 8M. The difference between the 5th and 14th pick is 2.1M.

That is a big chunk of the money.  It’s not all of it and the Os have an additional comp balance pick is also part of it but at the end of the day, you are ranking for the high pick and a little bit of money.

People act like the teams that draft lower don’t draft overslot guys later and spend on them.  Of course they do. It happens all the time.

So the draft pool means something but it doesn’t mean a ton.  End of the day, you are losing to get the high pick.  That is your one true reward.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I like Flanny, but he wasnt that good of a GM.

 

Hobgood wasn’t a Flanny pick.  MacPhail was the GM then.   You can pin Brandon Snyder and Billy Rowell on Flanny and his staff.   (He did pick Wieters).

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Hobgood wasn’t a Flanny pick.  MacPhail was the GM then.   You can pin Brandon Snyder and Billy Rowell on Flanny and his staff.   (He did pick Wieters).

Thanks, sorry for some reason, my brain was telling me 2010 was Andy and 2009 was Flanny.

 

[Ruzious]

8 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-recap-2/

Fangraphs's Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein on Colton Cowser:

 

Those quotes make me comfortable with the pick - though I have no doubt that him being under-slot was a factor.  And it's interesting that Watson - who they probably would have picked if all things were equal re signability - went 16th.    

[Getz]

24 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Not that it's a terrible thing, but they have an awful lot of outfielders for the contending window: Mullins, Hays, Haskin, Kjerstad, Cowser, Stowers, and potentially still Diaz/Stewart/Santander/McKenna.

Do you really expect Stewart or McKenna to have any impact on a contending team!?