The Marauding Delmarva Offense

[owknows]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

That’s pretty much what these decisions boil down to.   But I’d agree with C_o_C that 70% sounds high.   It would be an interesting topic to analyze.  

Not to belabor the point... but I think the success of a strategy like this would largely depend on the degree of discount. And the degree of discount would largely depend on the team's predictive prowess.

Let's consider an actual case... For the Orioles let's say that Cedric Mullins.

The time to sign Mullins and benefit from the discount would have been before his explosive breakout season. But he had yet to flash the promise until now. The team would have had to predict the magic of abandoning switch hitting (or whatever the miracle was), and signed him him last season. I think it's reasonably fair to say that the bloom is somewhat off the rose.

Could he still be signed for something less than top dollar with a pay-me-now extension? Sure. But it isn't going to be a 50% off sale. That ship has sailed.

So maybe I have a different idea of what this strategy is all about.

My thinking focuses on the best of the middle tier guys. Try to predict their success based on late AAA and early ML performance, and taking a shot at a SERIOUS discount.

You're going to lose on some of these... but the losses are lower.

 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Is it me or is there way more pointless arguing on the board lately? I was wondering how an innocuous post on our A club offense would have five pages. I am not pointing fingers because I have been guilty as much as anyone. 

I'm not feeling that so much in the thread at the moment.

I came for the fight... and a hockey game broke out

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

I'm not feeling that so much in the thread at the moment.

I came for the fight... and a hockey game broke out

I'm biased but I only see one person in this thread wanting to argue just for the sake of desiring conflict. 

And for once it isn't me. 

[7Mo]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

That’s pretty much what these decisions boil down to.   But I’d agree with C_o_C that 70% sounds high.   It would be an interesting topic to analyze.  

It would definitely be interesting. And to me, I'd want to separate guys signed before their major league debut vs guys signed after. 

I'm not convinced there are so many players anxious to take a below market deal. And, there are now agencies giving loans/advances to MiLB players. How would/has that affected a players interest?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, 7Mo said:

It would definitely be interesting. And to me, I'd want to separate guys signed before their major league debut vs guys signed after. 

I'm not convinced there are so many players anxious to take a below market deal. And, there are now agencies giving loans/advances to MiLB players. How would/has that affected a players interest?

I'm not sure about that.

I think the group that signed Schoop and Co went under. 

[owknows]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm biased but I only see one person in this thread wanting to argue just for the sake of desiring conflict. 

And for once it isn't me. 

I'm going to pretend it isn't me either.

Honestly, this place is pretty civil compared to just about every other place on the web.

A real knucklebusting dustup usually only involves a few pokes in the ribs.

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not sure about that.

I think the group that signed Schoop and Co went under. 

March 2021 https://bigleagueadvance.com/minor-league-player-investment/ 

March 2021 https://www.yahoo.com/now/betting-on-minor-league-players-is-like-a-lottery-ticket-but-worth-the-massive-risk-ceo-173252557.html

Was it Big League Advance that was involved with Schoop?

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

March 2021 https://bigleagueadvance.com/minor-league-player-investment/ 

March 2021 https://www.yahoo.com/now/betting-on-minor-league-players-is-like-a-lottery-ticket-but-worth-the-massive-risk-ceo-173252557.html

Was it Big League Advance that was involved with Schoop?

Fantex

 

Quote

In August 2016, the company closed its platform to individual investors, and in March 2017 the company's CEO and co-founder, Cornell French, left Fantex.^[

 

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Fantex

 

 

Seems like Big League Advance is still in operation.

[owknows]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Fantex

 

 

A company doomed from the start.

How could they survive with a name that sounds like something with wings, that the wife would send you to the drugstore to buy in an embarassingly awkward purchase?

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not sure about that.

I think the group that signed Schoop and Co went under. 

I don’t think they went under.   They were publicly traded for a while, then went private.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think they went under.   They were publicly traded for a while, then went private.   

I linked to their wiki entry.  They went private and their CEO left. 

[Just Regular]

Its crazy to me some of Ronald Acuna's Union colleagues (Chris Davis?  Miguel Cabrera?) didn't gift him a few or a dozen million to keep that benchmark out of their hair for years and years to come.

I doubt Adley Rutschman is enthralled with his organization tonight, but for funsies maybe Elias could approach him with a LTC offer a fair bit below that benchmark since, you know, he hasn't proven anything yet.

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd also be very open to extending young players.

 

I'm sure you would be. Not sure the young players would be. But that's not the point.  If you are promoting Gunnar Henderson type prospects to the majors before they've even hit AA (which you have advocated) you are going to have multiple negative WAR seasons. That doesn't benefit the player or the big league club. I think you fail to realize that even the most pro labor baseball guys, say Keith Law for example, advocate for most players getting extensive time in the upper minors before debuting in the majors. Your method would honestly be a disaster. 

[Can_of_corn]

31 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I'm sure you would be. Not sure the young players would be. But that's not the point.  If you are promoting Gunnar Henderson type prospects to the majors before they've even hit AA (which you have advocated) you are going to have multiple negative WAR seasons. That doesn't benefit the player or the big league club. I think you fail to realize that even the most pro labor baseball guys, say Keith Law for example, advocate for most players getting extensive time in the upper minors before debuting in the majors. Your method would honestly be a disaster. 

Yep.  Call it the Brooks Robinson model.

As I've explained before, I think the O's are going to have to do something really out of the box to break out.  Some high risk bets are going to have to pay off.

Look at the Blue Jays.  You see their young hitters?  You see the season Robbie Ray is having?  You see where they are in fourth place?

Doing what the Astros did isn't going to get it done (IMO).