2021 Orioles #8 Prospect - Jordan Westburg - SS/3B

[jamalshw]

I would love to see Westburg debut in late 2022. I think it's definitely possible, but not probable. If Westburg is able to light it up in AA much like he did in Delmarva to start the year (and the last 18 games in AA this year), I think a quick promotion to AAA is possible. If he's in Norfolk after 30ish games at Bowie and then continues to hit well after his promotion, I think we do see him sometime in August. That said, I'm not sure I expect that level of dominance next year. He was very good this season, but to expect a progression next year without any significant growing pains/slumps may be wishful thinking. 

[Jammer7]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

His personal trajectory was very good, but really nothing amazing.   Elias gave him a very conservative initial placement in low A, hence the “played at three levels” narrative, but I’m sure there were quite a few 2020 college draftees who made it to AA (or higher) by the end of this season, and spent more time there than Westburg did.   

All this makes it sound like I’m down on Westburg - far from it!    I picked him at no. 7, ahead of Stowers.   But it’s just not that common for college players to make it to the majors in two years, and there are a number of reasons to think Westburg won’t be one of the exceptions.   
 

I did not get any impression you are down on him. Your thoughts are grounded and realistic on this. Blood and Elias will do what is best for his personal development. I just think if he can stick at SS, there is value to pairing him with Adley sooner than later. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Westburg can get at least another 300ish AA/AAA at bats by early August.

That would give him over 400 at bats in the upper minors, after staying too long in the lower minors.

He had a 976 OPs in September in Bowie, covering 18 games.  If he goes to AA this year and continues to hit well, there is no reason to leave him down.  You can come up with whatever research you want about teams stupidly leaving guys down too long but if a college drafted player has 400+ at bats in the upper minors, after dominating the lower minors, and is giving you very good production and is ready defensively as well, there isn’t any good reason to leave him down.

The only reason you leave him down at that point is service time.  That’s teams saying, the 60ish games they get into the rest of the year isn’t as valuable as the extra years of service time if we wait.  It’s incredibly naive to think differently because in the scenario I’m laying out, you are saying it’s necessary for him to get into another 30ish games/100-120 at bats in the upper minors.  Why?  Why does that matter?  Is that SSS going to change him?  No, of course not.

But it’s the teams way of saying, we will wait until next year and get the extra year.  If the CBa changes, you will see teams be more aggressive with this and we no longer have to hear the excuses from teams and the fans as to why it’s justifiable.

I don’t conflate AA/AAA the way you do.  AAA is harder.   

I’m not going to debate what’s right or wrong here.   Honestly, I’d rather have this discussion when we see how Westburg is doing next year.   Let’s say he continues at .900+ in AA (or even .850+) like he did in September.   In that case, I think he’s in AAA on or before June 1.   (By the way, I’m assuming the minors will start in April next year, not May like this season).    Two months of .800+ in AAA, now there’s a pretty strong reason to consider calling him up.   But, it may not play out that way.   If he’s hitting 
.750 OPS at Bowie (as he did over his full time there this year), they’ll be slower to move him to AAA, and then we’ll see how that adjustment goes - it has taken him a little while to adjust in his two previous promotions, and we know Norfolk is a way tougher hitting environment than Bowie.   So, I just hope he progresses well enough that the call-up discussion is worth having sometime in the second half of 2022.

[Ruzious]

Assuming Westburg and Ortiz both start out the season at Bowie looking good.  Who plays SS?  Then assume Henderson also starts out in Bowie.  Is that even workable?  The idea of alternating them at different positions doesn't seem like a good one, imo.  

[Sports Guy]

57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t conflate AA/AAA the way you do.  AAA is harder.   

I’m not going to debate what’s right or wrong here.   Honestly, I’d rather have this discussion when we see how Westburg is doing next year.   Let’s say he continues at .900+ in AA (or even .850+) like he did in September.   In that case, I think he’s in AAA on or before June 1.   (By the way, I’m assuming the minors will start in April next year, not May like this season).    Two months of .800+ in AAA, now there’s a pretty strong reason to consider calling him up.   But, it may not play out that way.   If he’s hitting 
.750 OPS at Bowie (as he did over his full time there this year), they’ll be slower to move him to AAA, and then we’ll see how that adjustment goes - it has taken him a little while to adjust in his two previous promotions, and we know Norfolk is a way tougher hitting environment than Bowie.   So, I just hope he progresses well enough that the call-up discussion is worth having sometime in the second half of 2022.

Well yes, if he isn’t producing than he won’t be on the radar to be called up.  I already mentioned that.  But if he’s struggling this year, barring a really good reason (ie injuries), he likely won’t end up being much of anything.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well yes, if he isn’t producing than he won’t be on the radar to be called up.  I already mentioned that.  But if he’s struggling this year, barring a really good reason (ie injuries), he likely won’t end up being much of anything.

Well, there’s a whole range of outcomes between excelling and struggling.   So we’ll see where he lands on that spectrum.   I’m reasonably optimistic.   

Judging by Stowers and Neustrom, I’d expect a significant OPS drop when he gets to Norfolk.  I’d say anything over .750 there wouldn’t be considered struggling, and even .700 wouldn’t necessarily mean there’s trouble so long as the OBP component remains solid.  Obviously, I’m hoping for better than that.  
 

[jabba72]

Im thinking they'll want Westburg to get acclimated to Norfolk before calling him up. Westburg isnt a better prospect than Adley, and he's in AAA. Still there's time for him to debut somewhere at the end of 2022. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, jabba72 said:

Im thinking they'll want Westburg to get acclimated to Norfolk before calling him up. Westburg isnt a better prospect than Adley, and he's in AAA. Still there's time for him to debut somewhere at the end of 2022. 

You do know why Adley is in AAA right?

[jabba72]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

You do know why Adley is in AAA right?

Yes but I still think he could play well enough to debut in 2022, even if he spends time in Norfolk.

[Chaka Garcia]

Maybe noone knows the definitive answer, but can speculate.

Why hasn't Westburg played 2B in the minors with the logjam at SS and 3B?

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Chaka Garcia said:

Maybe noone knows the definitive answer, but can speculate.

Why hasn't Westburg played 2B in the minors with the logjam at SS and 3B?

There isn’t a log jam. It just so happens that are best SS/3B prospects are developmentally at the same place with the bats. Westburg and Gunnar. It will be interesting to see what they do. 
 

Gunnar, Westburg, Ortiz, and Vavra, are all in the mix for the AA Infield to start the season. 
 

It’s not ideal to have Westburg and Gunnar on the same team, but they do seem to push each other. There is something to that and building chemistry.