MLBTR: Can We Get Excited About the Orioles Yet?

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, now said:

I'm kind of surprised no one on here (that I've seen) has argued for the idea of a top-tier SS to carry into our window of contention. In other words, the Big Five: Correa, Seager, Story, Baez, Semien (or other 3B/2B) Granted, posing this idea about Lindor, a year or two ago, was premature. What about now? Too early? Too expensive? We won't be ready soon enough? You like Westburg, Henderson, etc. too much to block? The Big Five are overrated? They'd never sign here with at least another 1-2 years of losing? I'm remembering how Tejada almost keyed a legitimate contender in 2005, before everything went sideways. And BTW, I'm not committed to this idea, either, just a little puzzled as to why it's not even considered (espec. after the article leading this thread hinted at it).

I wouldn’t give a Lindor type deal to Correa.  Seager will get too much for my liking because of his health.

Someone in that mix is going to get less because of supply and demand.

Story could end up being the best bargain, as I think he gets the third or 4th biggest deal.

I would still prefer Bryant on a shorter and cheaper deal.

Stroman is still my #1 target overall though.  Really like the stability he could bring here.

Would love to deal Mullins and Santander for Lopez, Meyer and Anderson.

Move Mancini in hopes to add one or 2 ML ready or near ML ready power arms for the pen.

Trade for DeJong if he can be had cheaply.  
 

IF defense improves dramatically, your rotation is worlds better and your payroll is still extremely low.  

[Just Regular]

31 minutes ago, now said:

I'm kind of surprised no one on here (that I've seen) has argued for the idea of a top-tier SS to carry into our window of contention. In other words, the Big Five: Correa...

I've put a fair few electrons on this kind of 2022 hope in the past, but more of them last offseason before the starting levels of some of the brightest talents were selected, and the massive failure of the Kremer/Akin/Baumann group.    For me, Correa's youth and defense separated him substantially from all the others for the 2022-2029 Orioles, speculatively speaking.

I content myself now wondering if maybe Andrelton is down to the 2022 Orioles level, but if "The Orioles will sign a $6M free agent" were in the True/False section of an offseason prediction contest, I think I'd go with the F.   It'll get good in time, just more time than would feel great.   Rutschman's years of team control seem like a big favorite to extend past the present ownership situation, and the end of his run could be almost anything.

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Elias is following the Tampa model and offering 5 years for an expensive free agent does not fit that model.  Especially with Westburg and Henderson coming in a year or so.

 

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias isn’t following anyone’s model.

I expect Elias to do certain things that resemble what Tampa does, do certain things that resemble what Houston does, etc.   But in the end, SG is right, Elias is building his own model based on this team’s circumstances and his own beliefs  about what will work best in that situation.   

I do not expect him to make large plays for high priced free agents this winter.   He’s said nothing to suggest that he will, so I am assuming he won’t.   We can all debate whether that’s the right strategy, but in terms of what will happen, that’s my expectation.   

One thing I like about the DeJong idea is it gives us flexibility.   The team’s commitment is only two years but the options can extend it to four.   If Westburg and Henderson both pan out and one can stick at SS, the O’s can decline the options or trade him away.   If we find these guys aren’t progressing as we expected and hoped, we can keep DeJong if he’s playing well, or move on.   

 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias isn’t following anyone’s model.

If Elias is following the Houston model, he isn't signing anyone longer than 5 years, unless they are a generational talent ala Altuve. I'm not expecting the O's to sign anyone to a contract exceeding Davis' contract in length or total value for many years.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If Elias is following the Houston model, he isn't signing anyone longer than 5 years, unless they are a generational talent ala Altuve. I'm not expecting the O's to sign anyone to a contract exceeding Davis' contract in length or total value for many years.

I kind of hope this is true to be honest.

[now]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If Elias is following the Houston model, he isn't signing anyone longer than 5 years, unless they are a generational talent ala Altuve. I'm not expecting the O's to sign anyone to a contract exceeding Davis' contract in length or total value for many years.

Yeah, definitely more prudent to stay away from the multiyear industry standard if that's 7+ years. Then again, we used to feel hamstrung by that caution when PA would balk at 4 years for any starting pitcher. Personally, I'm fine with being market-shy if it's enough compensated by being talent-smart. Still awaiting proof of concept on that. But hey, at least a clean contract slate (first time ever) is a good place to start.

[NCRaven]

5 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Stick Mountcastle at SS for a week and you will see.

Put DeJong at 1B and your talking sub Ryan Ripken.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

I expect Elias to do certain things that resemble what Tampa does, do certain things that resemble what Houston does, etc.   But in the end, SG is right, Elias is building his own model based on this team’s circumstances and his own beliefs  about what will work best in that situation.   

I do not expect him to make large plays for high priced free agents this winter.   He’s said nothing to suggest that he will, so I am assuming he won’t.   We can all debate whether that’s the right strategy, but in terms of what will happen, that’s my expectation.   

One thing I like about the DeJong idea is it gives us flexibility.   The team’s commitment is only two years but the options can extend it to four.   If Westburg and Henderson both pan out and one can stick at SS, the O’s can decline the options or trade him away.   If we find these guys aren’t progressing as we expected and hoped, we can keep DeJong if he’s playing well, or move on.   

 

I think you and SG are living in dream worlds.  SG wants to sign all this expensive players.  To his credit he is not saying that Elias will do that, because SG knows he will not.

You think Elias would spent 17m on DeJong when he has Mateo, Fox, Urias, Martin and for now Grenier all who can play SS.  And Westburg/Gunnar are about a year away.   That does not sound like Elias to me.

Elias has said he is focused on adding players that will help win playoff games.   DeJong is not that player and can't see him spending 17m on someone who will not help the O's to the playoffs.

I can see him spending 2/12m for a reliever that he thinks will help the team get to the playoffs.  Or 2/30m for a starter with the right profile. But not a short term SS.  He pays 1/2M for the short term fixes if that.

[Sports Guy]

47 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think you and SG are living in dream worlds.  SG wants to sign all this expensive players.  To his credit he is not saying that Elias will do that, because SG knows he will not.

You think Elias would spent 17m on DeJong when he has Mateo, Fox, Urias, Martin and for now Grenier all who can play SS.  And Westburg/Gunnar are about a year away.   That does not sound like Elias to me.

Elias has said he is focused on adding players that will help win playoff games.   DeJong is not that player and can't see him spending 17m on someone who will not help the O's to the playoffs.

I can see him spending 2/12m for a reliever that he thinks will help the team get to the playoffs.  Or 2/30m for a starter with the right profile. But not a short term SS.  He pays 1/2M for the short term fixes if that.

I am looking at a total payroll and the teams payroll is next to nothing for the next several years.   I’m saying they should take advantage of the payroll flexibility Elias supposedly is striving for by getting rid of the contracts he did.

But since we have arguably the worst ownership in sports, I don’t think it happens.  That’s not what Elias wants and it has nothing to do with following a specific model.  You are just wrong about that.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think you and SG are living in dream worlds.  SG wants to sign all this expensive players.  To his credit he is not saying that Elias will do that, because SG knows he will not.

You think Elias would spent 17m on DeJong when he has Mateo, Fox, Urias, Martin and for now Grenier all who can play SS.  And Westburg/Gunnar are about a year away.   That does not sound like Elias to me.

Elias has said he is focused on adding players that will help win playoff games.   DeJong is not that player and can't see him spending 17m on someone who will not help the O's to the playoffs.

I can see him spending 2/12m for a reliever that he thinks will help the team get to the playoffs.  Or 2/30m for a starter with the right profile. But not a short term SS.  He pays 1/2M for the short term fixes if that.

I have not said I think Elias would do this.  I said I think it’s an idea worth considering.   

Let me ask you a question: what do you think are the odds that any of Mateo, Fox, Urias, Martin, Grenier, Westburg or Henderson will be a better major league player than DeJong?  Forget about 2022-23, or even 2022-25.   I mean, ever?

I hate to tell you this, but the odds are against it.   DeJong is 27 and has accrued 12.9 rWAR already.   Slightly better than what JJ Hardy was worth through age 27.    He may not have as good a career as Hardy eventually did, but he’s already had a very good career.  His 12.9 rWAR ranks 6th among all players who debuted in 2017, and 2nd among all players drafted in 2015.    The odds that Henderson or Westburg will be that good are slim — and I like both of them.   So I don’t necessarily dismiss a guy like DeJong because we have other guys we hope will be good someday.   
 

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I have not said I think Elias would do this.  I said I think it’s an idea worth considering.   

Let me ask you a question: what do you think are the odds that any of Mateo, Fox, Urias, Martin, Grenier, Westburg or Henderson will be a better major league player than DeJong?  Forget about 2022-23, or even 2022-25.   I mean, ever?

I hate to tell you this, but the odds are against it.   DeJong is 27 and has accrued 12.9 rWAR already.   Slightly better than what JJ Hardy was worth through age 27.    He may not have as good a career as Hardy eventually did, but he’s already had a very good career.  His 12.9 rWAR ranks 6th among all players who debuted in 2017, and 2nd among all players drafted in 2015.    The odds that Henderson or Westburg will be that good are slim — and I like both of them.   So I don’t necessarily dismiss a guy like DeJong because we have other guys we hope will be good someday.   
 

IMO Elias is building a core of players that will be together for  four or five years.  Westburg will probably be a steady as DeJong with the glove and arm but  will not have as good range.   But he will out hit DeJong by a wide margin.   He will play 2022 at 23 years old and probably  make the majors in late 2022/early 2023.

I don't see Elias spending 9m in 2023 on DeJong.  And if he acquired him now he would probably have to pay another team to take him in 2023 when Westburg is ready.  I don't see  Elias doing that.  Instead he will go cheap in 2022 with a combination of Mateo and Fox at SS and Urias as a backup at SS at times while he plays 2B on a regular basis.   JMO

If Elias spends this off season it will be on pitching IMO.