O’s sign Jordan Lyles

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

But that is what I think Elias and Holt are doing.  Mainly because that is probably the only way the O's can get a starter for 7m that is worth 7m.

It's bad process.

Also really unlikely to actually happen.

I have to admit it's admirable how you keep supporting Holt after how his pitchers performed last season.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure.

Where's the lie?

[DrungoHazewood]

45 minutes ago, interloper said:

 "He had a 2.87 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in his last five outings, which included one run allowed in seven relief innings in Arizona, and opponents batted .215/.292/.346.

The four-seam fastball is typically 92-93 mph and BrooksBaseball.net data shows that Lyles decreased its usage after July, with more of a reliance on his slider, sinker, curveball and changeup."

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/12/another-look-at-lyles-and-other-notes.html

Not saying he's gonna suddenly be a 2.87 pitcher, but I'm hoping they can find improvement by tweaking his pitch usage. 

I still don't agree he's going to put up a worse year than Harvey, we'll just have to see. But I do agree that it's weird the O's felt it was necessary to pounce on him this early in the offseason. Maybe they really felt the lockout pressure for whatever reason? 

He's 30, he has over 1100 MLB innings, and an ERA+ of 82.  And he's coming to a very good hitter's park, a very good home run park, and he's going to be playing in front of a defense that as it currently stands should be below average.

Most likely case is that his ERA+ is going to be around 80, which in 2021 OPACY terms is something like 5.50.

[DrungoHazewood]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't spend 7M on a guy worth 3M because you think you can turn him into someone worth 7M.

It's the anti-Moneyball.  Find an undervalued asset and them pay him what you think he's really worth! Maybe the A's would have won the World Series if only they'd paid Scott Hatteberg $8M a year.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, interloper said:

I don't think you can really argue he's worth $3M. I think he's worth about 5, which is what he got, plus some Camden tax, plus a buyout that the O's may not even have to pay if they trade him. 

I'd argue that you should never pay anything like $7M for a guy who was below replacement both last year and for his career.  I suppose you don't usually pay healthy veterans the minimum, so maybe I'd value him at $1-2M, at which point I'd rather just throw Bruce Zimmerman out there for 30 starts.

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He's 30, he has over 1100 MLB innings, and an ERA+ of 82.  And he's coming to a very good hitter's park, a very good home run park, and he's going to be playing in front of a defense that as it currently stands should be below average.

Most likely case is that his ERA+ is going to be around 80, which in 2021 OPACY terms is something like 5.50.

I guess I'm just more bullish on him. If he puts up a 5ish ERA over 150+ innings, I think that's honestly huge for this team. It's a bit of an overpay, but I'm not sure why people care so much about that aspect. It doesn't mean that suddenly Elias is dumb or that Sig is just twiddling his thumbs with a whole analytics dept. 

Guy is just gonna eat innings, and they're willing to overpay for that right now in an aggressive market. Still plenty of room for the young pitchers. 

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's bad process.

Also really unlikely to actually happen.

I have to admit it's admirable how you keep supporting Holt after how his pitchers performed last season.

I don't see Elias firing Holt.   He will support him.   Holt is probably here as long as Elias is here.

[spiritof66]

 

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

I remember last season, I was constantly complaining about Lopez being brought out for another inning after it was clear he was tired, and although there were some happy exceptions almost every time he started that final fateful inning, he left with men on base who scored.

Unless the quantity of the innings is more important than the quality, There is no such thing as an innings eater.

If Mike doesn’t care about winning this season, and he only wants a 7 million dollar warm body to stand on the mound and do his best, and for some reason he does not want that to be our prospects-in-waiting, then yes your point is completely valid.

Some have speculated, among them Bill James, that one of the reasons teams that play in HR-friendly ballparks have trouble developing starting pitchers is that their confidence and willingness to challenge hitters gets eaten away when balls that were fly outs in college and the minors become home runs. I don't know of any studies or data that support or belie that, but it makes sense to me that, up to a point that I can't define, you want to protect pitchers who may be part of your future from taking a beating when they're not pitching well or are tiring.

Obviously, nobody gives a rat's ass about eroding Jordan Lyles' confidence and willingness to challenge pitchers. He's been around a long time, has given up a ton of homers (even in a HR-unfriendly environment) and isn't part of the team's future. If the Orioles get behind early, you might see him left in to take a beating and save the relievers who got so worn out the last couple of years. At least, that makes sense to me. I can't figure why else Elias would devote such a large chunk of the payroll to Lyles.

Elias's hope seems to spring eternal where one-time Astros are concerned, but I don't see how you can expect to "fix" a 31-year-old veteran. Maybe re-invent to create something in the direction of a right-handed Rich Hill. But a project like that shouldn't command much of a contract.

[Bahama O's Fan]

If he can go 6 innings allowing 4 runs on average, that's our #2 starter

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't see Elias firing Holt.   He will support him.   Holt is probably here as long as Elias is here.

I was talking about you supporting him, not Elias.

 

Unless you are Elias in which case God help us all.

[Philip]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'd argue that you should never pay anything like $7M for a guy who was below replacement both last year and for his career.  I suppose you don't usually pay healthy veterans the minimum, so maybe I'd value him at $1-2M, at which point I'd rather just throw Bruce Zimmerman out there for 30 starts.

I didn’t mention this point in my occam’s razor analysis, because it’s obvious that Mike doesn’t care about that. But that begs the question of why not? If next season is still a development year, which will infuriate me, then why isn’t he letting his guys develop? If wins don’t matter, which also infuriates me, What can be more important than allowing all of your guys through 150 innings each, for instance.

Kremer, Lowther, A. Wells, Baumann, Akin, Means, Grayson, Hall, Bradish, maybe T Wells or Lopez, and that’s off the time of my head. That’s a lot of guys who deserve mound time. Why spend 7 million dollars on a career of crap hoping it will suddenly turn into not-crap?

Its not logical.

[Philip]

5 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

If he can go 6 innings allowing 4 runs on average, that's our #2 starter

He can’t.

Edit: Someone who can consistently go six innings with allowing four or fewer runs Would be welcome on almost any rotation in baseball.

That’s not Lyles. Others have mentioned his career, So what he has done is pretty obvious.

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'd argue that you should never pay anything like $7M for a guy who was below replacement both last year and for his career.  I suppose you don't usually pay healthy veterans the minimum, so maybe I'd value him at $1-2M, at which point I'd rather just throw Bruce Zimmerman out there for 30 starts.

The O's need 5 starters to begin the season.  They have Means and Lyles.   Grayson, Bradish and Baumann may need to go to AAA for a little while to begin the season.  That gives Zimmermann a good chance to be in the rotation on OD.  All he has to do is pitch well  and they will not take him out of the rotation.  He can get 30 starts.

[sevastras]

I still think they should move the fences back 20’. They could have one of the fastest outfields with Hays and Mullins. Also, their pitching would be better and they don’t have that much of a home run hitting team like years past. They could resign Bundy as well because most of his HRs allowed weren’t over 20 feet over. 

[interloper]

Just now, Philip said:

I didn’t mention this point in my occam’s razor analysis, because it’s obvious that Mike doesn’t care about that. But that begs the question of why not? If next season is still a development year, which will infuriate me, then why isn’t he letting his guys develop? If wins don’t matter, which also infuriates me, What can be more important than allowing all of your guys through 150 innings each, for instance.

Kremer, Lowther, A. Wells, Baumann, Akin, Means, Grayson, Hall, Bradish, maybe T Wells or Lopez, and that’s off the time of my head. That’s a lot of guys who deserve mound time. Why spend 7 million dollars on a career of crap hoping it will suddenly turn into not-crap?

Its not logical.

Let's not go crazy with "deserve". Kremer proved he doesn't deserve much right now other than another stint in AAA. Baumann, T. Wells, and Lopez will be in the bullpen. A. Wells will be in AAA as emergency depth. Lowther, Zimmermann, Akin, and Bradish will be options for the rotation even with Lyles. And G-Rod will be up in August or so, bumping whomever is struggling most. 

There's plenty of room.