Correa (Update, signs with Twins)

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Seager has been more consistent than Correa offensively (Correa has 2 sub-100 OPS+ seasons while Seager's 2 career lows are 103 and 112) and he clearly has the higher offensive ceiling of the two when you account for what actually led to Correa's monster 2017, and I think Seager would fare better at OPACY going forward as a LHB than Correa would as a RHB given the changes to LF. 

I wouldn't do either deal if I was Elias btw, I'm just saying that my preference would have been Seager if I had to sign one of them, both for the reasons I have already cited ITT and the fact that Seager will likely be cheaper by at least $15-25 million over the life of the deal,  maybe even a bit more if a post-lockout bidding war breaks out between some of the usual big spenders like the Yankees and Red Sox.

Correa is a superior defender. It’s not even close. Seager is a better hitter but not enough to negate the glove. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, eddie83 said:

Correa is a superior defender

I'm aware, I previously noted ITT that Correa led all of MLB in defensive WAR last year according to bbref. 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

I mean it is their fault if they offer something that they know or don’t think he’ll sign. Not that they’re in the wrong for not going beyond 10/320, but they should know what the market will be. 

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I put zero credence in this rumor.  It’s not consistent with what Elias has said this offseason.   And, teams really can’t discuss their FA plans right now.   I think it’s fabricated.  

I’m not getting my hopes up but Clark to my knowledge has a solid reputation. I don’t listen to him often but he does not have a history of throwing stuff out there. Obviously if there was an offer it was months ago. 

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I'm aware, I previously noted ITT that Correa led all of MLB in defensive WAR last year according to bbref. 

My biggest concern is health with Correa. Missed a good chunk of games from 17-19. His age and glove profile well. 

[interloper]

I feel like people are missing the point that the Orioles are apparently willing to spend more than twice the cost of Chris Davis. And that's a token offer? Lol. Alright. I love that already people are preemptively blaming the Orioles for NOT getting Correa when a couple days ago it was an unfathomable option anyway. Now suddenly $320 million is a token offer. Ok! 

Do I think we sign him? Nah, probably not. But that's a competitive offer and a VERY GOOD SIGN that this team intends to spend soon. 

[Tony-OH]

The signing of Correa would also free up Gunnar Henderson and/or Jordan Westburg as trade bait for pitching. Though it's still very possible that one could still go to third base (Henderson) and one to second base (Westburg). Depending on how fast Mayo moves, and he could be in AA by the end of this season, Henderson could have the most trade value and availability.

[eddie83]

It’s not a crazy idea to do this. The team payroll is nothing. It’s a key position. You have prospects that will start to arrive this year and next. From Correa’s standpoint he already has a ring and if he buys into the plan with that length of contract he knows time is on his side. 

[Yardball85]

12 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I’m not getting my hopes up but Clark to my knowledge has a solid reputation. I don’t listen to him often but he does not have a history of throwing stuff out there. Obviously if there was an offer it was months ago. 

This is where I'm at.  Not expecting anything either, but it's fun to talk about.  And agreed on Glenn Clark. 

[waroriole]

13 minutes ago, interloper said:

Use your words

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Use your words

Scroll up and read em.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, eddie83 said:

My biggest concern is health with Correa. Missed a good chunk of games from 17-19. His age and glove profile well. 

A huge part of his value is tied to his defense, which is indisputably elite right now at 27 years old, but will it still be elite at age 33? Or 35? Or 37? If not, his ability to even come close to living up to a $30-35ish million AAV becomes extremely questionable, I think.

I also can't help but notice that he has only stolen one base in the last 3 years (all the way back in 2019 at that!) after being a 15ish SB per year guy earlier in his career. I have not dived into the deeper analytics regarding his speed and baserunning, but on the surface that raises some concerns for me about his speed and/or the sturdiness of his legs, which is obviously a major concern for a SS on a decade-long mega-deal.

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

A huge part of his value is tied to his defense, which is indisputably elite right now at 27 years old, but will it still be elite at age 33? Or 35? Or 37? If not, his ability to even come close to living up to a $30-35ish million AAV becomes extremely questionable, I think.

I also can't help but notice that he has only stolen one base in the last 3 years (all the way back in 2019 at that!) after being a 15ish SB per year guy earlier in his career. I have not dived into the deeper analytics regarding his speed and baserunning, but on the surface that raises some concerns for me about his speed and/or the sturdiness of his legs, which is obviously a major concern for a SS on a decade-long mega-deal.

This kind of a deal is always a risk. Looking at the Orioles history alone Cal and JJ played strong defense into their early and mid 30’s. Even when Hardy’s back went bad his glove was there. 
 

To me this is about a window built around Adley and the others. It’s really about what they accomplish in the next 6/7 years. The back end of any of these deals never look good. 

[MarCakes21]

Not to try to derail, as I'm all in for a SS, why not Story over Correa for the Orioles, here's an article that's Yankees driven, but its still applicable minus our market size:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10021642-carlos-correa-vs-trevor-story-who-is-the-better-yankees-free-agent-target

In Story, you get someone who is older, which means maybe only a 6-7 year deal, and even that 3-4 year opt out as an options.  He's also put up more WAR and similar defense numbers since 2018.  The only flag would be the Coors factor as a somewhat unknown.

Correa: 10/$350mil. Story: 6/$140mil

Correa WAR (2018-2021): 3.1/3.7/1.7/7.2

Story WAR (2018-2021): 6.2/6.9/2.5/4.2

Correa Age/GP 2018-2021: 27/391

Story Age/GP 2018-2021: 29/503 

Edited March 1, 2022 by MarCakes21

[DrinkinWithFermi]

8 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Not to try to derail, as I'm all in for a SS, why not Story over Correa for the Orioles, here's an article that's Yankees driven, but its still applicable minus our market size:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10021642-carlos-correa-vs-trevor-story-who-is-the-better-yankees-free-agent-target

In Story, you get someone who is older, which means maybe only a 6-7 year deal, and even that 3-4 year opt out as an options.  He's also put up more WAR and similar defense numbers since 2018.  The only flag would be the Coors factor as a somewhat unknown.

Correa: 10/$350mil. Story: 6/$140mil

Correa WAR (2018-2021): 3.1/3.7/1.7/7.2

Story WAR (2018-2021): 6.2/6.9/2.5/4.2

Correa Age/GP 2018-2021: 27/391

Story Age/GP 2018-2021: 29/503 

Story's home/away splits are incredibly off-putting to me:

.303/.369/.603 at Coors Field

.241/.310/.442 away from Coors Field

Plus he's a RHB and RHBs just got nerfed at OPACY.

13 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

This kind of a deal is always a risk. Looking at the Orioles history alone Cal and JJ played strong defense into their early and mid 30’s. Even when Hardy’s back went bad his glove was there. 
 

To me this is about a window built around Adley and the others. It’s really about what they accomplish in the next 6/7 years. The back end of any of these deals never look good. 

I certainly understand that logic, and it's not necessarily wrong, but I do not subscribe to it. I think you can find ways to get good production at SS without saddling yourself with 3-5 years of a $30-35 million dollar albatross.