Correa (Update, signs with Twins)

[oriole]

23 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Not to try to derail, as I'm all in for a SS, why not Story over Correa for the Orioles, here's an article that's Yankees driven, but its still applicable minus our market size:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10021642-carlos-correa-vs-trevor-story-who-is-the-better-yankees-free-agent-target

In Story, you get someone who is older, which means maybe only a 6-7 year deal, and even that 3-4 year opt out as an options.  He's also put up more WAR and similar defense numbers since 2018.  The only flag would be the Coors factor as a somewhat unknown.

Correa: 10/$350mil. Story: 6/$140mil

Correa WAR (2018-2021): 3.1/3.7/1.7/7.2

Story WAR (2018-2021): 6.2/6.9/2.5/4.2

Correa Age/GP 2018-2021: 27/391

Story Age/GP 2018-2021: 29/503 

Coors factor isn’t as much of an unknown as you allude to…Story has a home OPS of .972 and away OPS of .752

[MarCakes21]

7 minutes ago, oriole said:

Coors factor isn’t as much of an unknown as you allude to…Story has a home OPS of .972 and away OPS of .752

I allude to it as an unknown because of how it would actually play at Camden Yards, relatively a hitters park, but potentially changing for RHB.

[Sports Guy]

46 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

A huge part of his value is tied to his defense, which is indisputably elite right now at 27 years old, but will it still be elite at age 33? Or 35? Or 37? If not, his ability to even come close to living up to a $30-35ish million AAV becomes extremely questionable, I think.

I also can't help but notice that he has only stolen one base in the last 3 years (all the way back in 2019 at that!) after being a 15ish SB per year guy earlier in his career. I have not dived into the deeper analytics regarding his speed and baserunning, but on the surface that raises some concerns for me about his speed and/or the sturdiness of his legs, which is obviously a major concern for a SS on a decade-long mega-deal.

Well, some of seagers value is that he is tied to SS too and he may not be there much longer.  Hell, he may not be there this season.

So all of a sudden his value goes down and he is potentially already worth less than Correa.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hell, he may not be there this season

This is a pretty ridiculous over-exaggeration, you're acting like he's a complete butcher at SS when he still had positive value there last year according to bbref (much less than Correa though, obviously). The Rangers didn't give a star free agent SS $325 million to play somewhere else, and I doubt he would have signed with them unless he was explicitly told he'd be their everyday SS for at least the foreseeable future.

And again, I wouldn't sign either of them at their pricetags at the end of the day.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

This is a pretty ridiculous over-exaggeration, you're acting like he's a complete butcher at SS when he still had positive value there last year according to bbref (much less than Correa though, obviously). The Rangers didn't give a star free agent SS $325 million to play somewhere else, and I doubt he would have signed with them unless he was explicitly told he'd be their everyday SS for at least the foreseeable future.

And again, I wouldn't sign either of them at their pricetags at the end of the day.

It’s not an overreaction at all.  They have a good fielding SS already and they also signed Semien.

Now, their good fielding SS is also a very good defensive third baseman and Semien can play second, so I’m guessing this will be the set up at first but it could change. UZr/UZr 150 doesn’t like him.  His defense WAR shows him to basically be average.  His OAA was -6, good for 28th in the majors.

So no, it’s not a stretch and even if he’s at SS in 2022, he’s not long for the position. 
 

And if they do leave him there, his value WAR will push itself closer the the 2.5-3.2 range.

[NCRaven]

The idea of a Mountcastle, Westburg, Correa, Henderson, Rutschman infield with Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad in the outfield has a certain appeal.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

The idea of a Mountcastle, Westburg, Correa, Henderson, Rutschman infield with Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad in the outfield has a certain appeal.

With Lopez, Meyer, Means, GRod and Hall in the rotation.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not an overreaction at all.

It is, and objectively so. Corey Seager is not Derek Jeter in his mid-late 30s out there, and IKF probably wasn't even going to be an everyday player (if he was even going to be on the team and not traded prior to Opening Day) before Jung went down with shoulder surgery. Maybe he won't be their everyday SS in 2026 but the idea that the Rangers paid a superstar SS a third of a billion dollars to immediately shift to a less valuable position is simply absurd.

[btdart20]

14 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

The idea of a Mountcastle, Westburg, Correa, Henderson, Rutschman infield with Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad in the outfield has a certain appeal.

Yep, but in my dreams it's this:  Mountcastle, Norby, Correa, Henderson, Rutschman infield with Jones, Cowser and Kjerstad in the outfield has a certain appeal with Mayo DH'ing.

[Just Regular]

I am curious to see if Story's 2021 throwing woes end up resulting in him needing to take a pillow contract.  I think some executives consider that more daunting in the short term than Correa's longer-term back issues.

A main difference is age - Correa 9.22.1994 has Story 11.15.1992 by almost two full years.    I would guess his representation is trying to spin his Games Missed as at least having the silver lining of less cumulative wear and tear if there is any thought all the stopping and starting shortstops have to do is just going to wear any baseball player's joints out after X years of doing the job.

Story I hadn't realized did the Jason Heyward thing were he made OD roster and is out on the market in six years even.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

It is, and objectively so. Corey Seager is not Derek Jeter in his mid-late 30s out there, and IKF probably wasn't even going to be an everyday player (if he was even going to be on the team and not traded prior to Opening Day) before Jung went down with shoulder surgery. Maybe he won't be their everyday SS in 2026 but the idea that the Rangers paid a superstar SS a third of a billion dollars to immediately shift to a less valuable position is simply absurd.

Lol ok.  They may keep him there..and in the midst of doing that, see his value continue to go down.  Certainly their right to do it.

Either way, Correa is easily the safer bet to be a more productive overall player for the next 2-4 years.  We will see after that.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Yep, but in my dreams it's this:  Mountcastle, Norby, Correa, Henderson, Rutschman infield with Jones, Cowser and Kjerstad in the outfield has a certain appeal with Mayo DH'ing.

By the time Jones is here, if they draft him, there will likely be no reason to keep Mountcastle around.  
 

Unless he greatly improves his OBP, he isn’t the type of guy you should be paying higher arb dollars too.  He is the exact guy you trade a year too early for other needs and let someone else pay a lot for a decent first baseman giving you 30+ homers and an 800-825 OPS.

[Just Regular]

7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

It is, and objectively so. Corey Seager is not Derek Jeter in his mid-late 30s out there, and IKF probably wasn't even going to be an everyday player (if he was even going to be on the team and not traded prior to Opening Day) before Jung went down with shoulder surgery. Maybe he won't be their everyday SS in 2026 but the idea that the Rangers paid a superstar SS a third of a billion dollars to immediately shift to a less valuable position is simply absurd.

Time will tell, but between Correa's youth and current defensive edge, I could see his buyer getting about two-thirds SS out of his 9-10 years, whereas I feel the Rangers are more likely to end up with about one-third from Seager.

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

By the time Jones is here, if they draft him, there will likely be no reason to keep Mountcastle around.  
 

Unless he greatly improves his OBP, he isn’t the type of guy you should be paying higher arb dollars too.  He is the exact guy you trade a year too early for other needs and let someone else pay a lot for a decent first baseman giving you 30+ homers and an 800-825 OPS.

Get off my lawn!    My dream includes Jones not playing more than 1 year in the minors and debuts at age 19.  (And us trading for Eury Perez instead of Pablo because I don't trust Pablo's arm health.  But that's messing with your dream, so I'll let you have it.)

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Get off my lawn!    My dream includes Jones not playing more than 1 year in the minors and debuts at age 19.  (And us trading for Eury Perez instead of Pablo because I don't trust Pablo's arm health.  But that's messing with your dream, so I'll let you have it.)

I dont think you get Perez and Meyer.  Lopez makes sense as one of the guys to trade.