Fangraphs on managing prospect expectations

[Sports Guy]

41 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Well I'm definitely counting Cowser.  Not sure anyone else is really a prospect though.  I guess I'm enamored w/ Druw Jones and hoping maybe irrationally the O's will take him. 

Well let’s see if that happens and it’s definitely a question if Cowser can play CF although I definitely think you try.  Either way, we definitely aren’t 2 deep there.

Laws ranking was crazy.  His ranking last year was far worse.

[Chuck A]

6 hours ago, Pickles said:

A lot of people are going to be disappointed.

Wieters should be fresh on people's minds.

I still believe Wieters was a helluva good ballplayer for the O's.  I understand to a point that he wasn't what many expected but when you set your expectations so high, there is only one result most likely to occur.  I liked Matt as an Oriole and still commend his career.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Chuck A said:

I still believe Wieters was a helluva good ballplayer for the O's.  I understand to a point that he wasn't what many expected but when you set your expectations so high, there is only one result most likely to occur.  I liked Matt as an Oriole and still commend his career.

Of course it didn't help that he lost a lot of time to injury.  TJ surgery seems to have a pretty decent negative impact on position players.

[Pickles]

12 minutes ago, Chuck A said:

I still believe Wieters was a helluva good ballplayer for the O's.  I understand to a point that he wasn't what many expected but when you set your expectations so high, there is only one result most likely to occur.  I liked Matt as an Oriole and still commend his career.

Oh, I don't disagree.  My post wasn't meant to be a criticism of Wieters.

Many have made the argument that AR is a better prospect than Wieters was.

He isn't.

I think Tony chimed in and gave a slight nod to AR, based on his power.  I'll concede that.  But the idea that it's a hands down no comparison, is flat out false.

There was a thread from this past summer in which poster after poster basically predicted AR was going to come up and be Johnny Bench immediately. 

He won't.

I think he'll end up as Wieters with better OBP skills.

And I'm fine with that.

Anybody expecting more than that is, imo, likely to be disappointed, and unscientifically, that seems to be  a majority of the board to me.

[Frobby]

54 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Oh, I don't disagree.  My post wasn't meant to be a criticism of Wieters.

Many have made the argument that AR is a better prospect than Wieters was.

He isn't.

I think Tony chimed in and gave a slight nod to AR, based on his power.  I'll concede that.  But the idea that it's a hands down no comparison, is flat out false.

There was a thread from this past summer in which poster after poster basically predicted AR was going to come up and be Johnny Bench immediately. 

He won't.

I think he'll end up as Wieters with better OBP skills.

And I'm fine with that.

Anybody expecting more than that is, imo, likely to be disappointed, and unscientifically, that seems to be  a majority of the board to me.

Well, I think most (like me) feel that Rutschman and Wieters were about equally hyped prospects but are hoping that Rutschman will have a better outcome.   I won’t be dissatisfied if Rutschman = Wieters, but I will be disappointed.  The franchise really needs a cornerstone player and Rutschman is the most likely candidate.

[Aristotelian]

Their method as I understand it is based on the distribution of all players who have been graded X number. As far as I can tell it does not adjust for success they have had in the minors. While not a guarantee I think the success Grayson and Rutschman have had through AA/AAA gives us another data point in addition to their prospect grade to somewhat further narrow the range of outcomes. I am still optimistic

[Pickles]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, I think most (like me) feel that Rutschman and Wieters were about equally hyped prospects but are hoping that Rutschman will have a better outcome.   I won’t be dissatisfied if Rutschman = Wieters, but I will be disappointed.  The franchise really needs a cornerstone player and Rutschman is the most likely candidate.

I won't belabor the point but there have been some pretty prominent posters who have declared- without a doubt, cut and dried- that Rutschman was a better prospect than Wieters.

I'll confess to being a bit "disappointed" in Wieters' career.  And I"ll share the same feeling if Rutschman has a career of similar value.

I'd probably take the over.  But even with that said, a catcher being a true middle of the order hitter is a rare thing.  If he's an 850+ OPS bat, I'll be thrilled- and a bit surprised.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I won't belabor the point but there have been some pretty prominent posters who have declared- without a doubt, cut and dried- that Rutschman was a better prospect than Wieters.

I'll confess to being a bit "disappointed" in Wieters' career.  And I"ll share the same feeling if Rutschman has a career of similar value.

I'd probably take the over.  But even with that said, a catcher being a true middle of the order hitter is a rare thing.  If he's an 850+ OPS bat, I'll be thrilled- and a bit surprised.

Depends when you’re measuring them.   On draft day, Rutschman was considered a better prospect than Wieters was on his draft day.  But I’d say Wieters after the 2008 MiL season was considered very close to where Rutschman is rated now.  

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends when you’re measuring them.   On draft day, Rutschman was considered a better prospect than Wieters was on his draft day.  But I’d say Wieters after the 2008 MiL season was considered very close to where Rutschman is rated now.  

Sure.  It's always a "snapshot in time."

But going into their ML debut season, they're about equal as prospects.

As you probably know, Wieters was considered the best positional prospect of his draft class.  Rutshcman was seen as the best overall prospect.  I think it is fair to say Rutschman was a better prospect at the draft, but Wieters "slipped" to 5 overall because of Boras/money. 

[OriolesMagic83]

I'll admit that I'll be disappointed if Adley isn't in the conversation for the best catcher in the game.  I know that's an awfully high bar, maybe unrealistic.   Who is the last player the O's drafted and developed who was seen as arguably the best at his position?  Ripken?  Wow, no wonder the O's have been almost 40 years w/o a championship. 

[btdart20]

Wieters broke PECOTA and a deity was born...  Adley doesn't have the myth to live up to.  If Adley is exactly what Wieters was, I'll be happy but with a nagging feeling of 'what might have been.'  Pretty much how I felt with Wieters.  

Honestly, I'll be the most disappointed if Grayson isn't an All-Star caliber pitcher...  

There are always impressive stories and players we're drawn to, but it feels like this group of guys has it in spades.  This really feels like a special group.  Adley's ease and confidence, Grayson's constant improvement focus, Cowser's humility and read of others, Hall's 'stuff', Mayo's EV, Kjerstad's perseverance, Norby's machine-like approach to hitting...

[Sports Guy]

Part of me thoughts on Adley will be driven by Witt.  If Witt is a perennial AS and Adley is merely a good player, that will make Adley even more of a disappointment. 

[Tony-OH]

19 hours ago, Pickles said:

Oh, I don't disagree.  My post wasn't meant to be a criticism of Wieters.

Many have made the argument that AR is a better prospect than Wieters was.

He isn't.

I think Tony chimed in and gave a slight nod to AR, based on his power.  I'll concede that.  But the idea that it's a hands down no comparison, is flat out false.

There was a thread from this past summer in which poster after poster basically predicted AR was going to come up and be Johnny Bench immediately. 

He won't.

I think he'll end up as Wieters with better OBP skills.

And I'm fine with that.

Anybody expecting more than that is, imo, likely to be disappointed, and unscientifically, that seems to be  a majority of the board to me.

The one thing you have to remember is Wieters got overhyped due his minor league numbers which were off the chart until AAA. When drafted, Joe Jordan gave Jason Varitek as a comp. After his minor league seasons everyone thought more like Johnny Bench.

Rutschamn has always had a Johnny Bench type comp as a plus offensive and defensive catcher. I do think Rutschman was higher ranked prospect and is the better prospect overall. 

We have to hope that Rutschman well outperforms Wieters at the major league level since Wieters even undershot the Varitek comp by 6 WAR over their careers.

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Wieters broke PECOTA and a deity was born...  Adley doesn't have the myth to live up to.  If Adley is exactly what Wieters was, I'll be happy but with a nagging feeling of 'what might have been.'  Pretty much how I felt with Wieters.  

Honestly, I'll be the most disappointed if Grayson isn't an All-Star caliber pitcher...  

There are always impressive stories and players we're drawn to, but it feels like this group of guys has it in spades.  This really feels like a special group.  Adley's ease and confidence, Grayson's constant improvement focus, Cowser's humility and read of others, Hall's 'stuff', Mayo's EV, Kjerstad's perseverance, Norby's machine-like approach to hitting...

I would be very disappointed if Adley turns into Matt Wieters at the major league level but I think he has better tools overall, so I don't see that happening. Rutschman has 70 raw power while Wieters was probably more like 60. Rutschman has a 70 grade on his plate discipline while Wieters was closer to a 50. Once Rutshcman adjusts to what major league pitchers will do to him at first, I like he'll end up an outstanding offensive player, though I don't think he's going to hit for an extremely high average. Probably more like .275-.285 but with the walks, his OBP should be in the high .380s+.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I would be very disappointed if Adley turns into Matt Wieters at the major league level but I think he has better tools overall, so I don't see that happening. Rutschman has 70 raw power while Wieters was probably more like 60. Rutschman has a 70 grade on his plate discipline while Wieters was closer to a 50. Once Rutshcman adjusts to what major league pitchers will do to him at first, I like he'll end up an outstanding offensive player, though I don't think he's going to hit for an extremely high average. Probably more like .275-.285 but with the walks, his OBP should be in the high .380s+.

Not many guys hitting over .285 these days 9 (29 players in 2021).  I certainly wouldn't expect a Catcher to manage it.