John Means 2022

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If Means doesn’t ever pitch again, this contract wouldn’t hurt them.  There is almost zero downside.

You say that but everything we've seen from the sons indicate that, for whatever reason, spending 13M on someone that ends up not being able to pitch would hurt them.

 

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You say that but everything we've seen from the sons indicate that, for whatever reason, spending 13M on someone that ends up not being able to pitch would hurt them.

 

It’s not SG’s money.   

I’d be fine with a statement like “the risk is worth the reward and a bad outcome wouldn’t seriously damage their ability to be competitive in the future.”   But to say the contract “wouldn’t hurt them” and has “almost zero downside” is hyperbole.   By the way, if I were the O’s, I’d do that contract.   

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s not SG’s money.   

I’d be fine with a statement like “the risk is worth the reward and a bad outcome wouldn’t seriously damage their ability to be competitive in the future.”   But to say the contract “wouldn’t hurt them” and has “almost zero downside” is hyperbole.   By the way, if I were the O’s, I’d do that contract.   

I would also, which is probably an indication that Means wouldn't.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The Orioles should sign Means right now to a 3 year contract (including this season) for 3/13 contract with a team option for a 4th year that could make it a 4/25 contract.

This injury sucks but it shouldn’t hurt Means too much long term and that contract pays him this year, gives him a very small raise next year and a cheap contract in year 3.  It also gives him some guarantees while he gets himself through this injury.

So, I went looking for a suggestion I made prior to the 2021 season.   Here’s what I said then:

Do: 4 years, $14 mm with two team options at $10 mm.

Don't do: 4 years, $20 mm with two team options at $13 mm and a $2 mm buyout.  

Now, keep in mind that my suggestion included his salary for the 2021 season, roughly $600 k.   I didn’t know then what kind of season Means would have in 2021 (probably on the better end of expected outcomes), or that he’d get injured this year.  But what I proposed is very close to what you are suggesting now.   At the time, you felt Means would never accept that deal.   But of course, the injury changes the calculus.  

Our discussion from pre-2021 starts with the post below.   It’s interesting to revisit it in light of everything that has happened since then. 

 

 

[Going Underground]

16 hours ago, Going Underground said:

Tides rained out today,so if he pitches tomorrow as scheduled, not a chance.

 

Means is basically down to long rest or surgery 

Bradish is in Scranton and scheduled to pitch in two hours So won't see him until Friday at the earliest and probably in May or maybe later.

[drjohnnyfeva]

11 hours ago, tntoriole said:

This is why you trade guys like this.  How many times does this organization have to learn this the hard way?  Mullins needs to go as soon as he gets hot.  Mancini should have gone preCA.  But no we will hold and hold till they are worth nothing. 

 

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It’s not SG’s money.   

I’d be fine with a statement like “the risk is worth the reward and a bad outcome wouldn’t seriously damage their ability to be competitive in the future.”   But to say the contract “wouldn’t hurt them” and has “almost zero downside” is hyperbole.   By the way, if I were the O’s, I’d do that contract.   

I get offering the contract of 3/13M.  It's not terribly costly and altho possibly hyperbole that it wouldn't hurt them and have no downside, what it does is kick the can of whether to deal the guy, if they can - if he recovers, down the road.  Which is, sadly, the more telling thing to me if the club does offer such a contract.  It signals we aren't close to competing.  Which to me is even more ammunition to the conclusion that any reasonable offers on players of ours that are good now should be taken for draft picks and prospects.  If he was traded or really on the blocks at all, he would/ should be some other team's concern at this point.  He's now useless - potentially - forever to us. 

Edited April 17, 2022 by drjohnnyfeva

[waroriole]

60 day IL. 

[Camden_yardbird]

God.  This is why team building isn't a linear process.  Why you have to take chances and why you can't just "flip a switch" and build a competitor.  If you want to compete in year X then you need to start taking risks two years earlier.

I suppose we can just add this as the 2022 excuse.

2019 - its the first year of the rebuild and there was no analytics department.

2020 - no minor league season, short major league season

2021 - our first round pick can't play in the minors

2022 - the labor dispute, we didn't get a rule 5 draft, Means got seriously injured.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

So, I went looking for a suggestion I made prior to the 2021 season.   Here’s what I said then:

 

Do: 4 years, $14 mm with two team options at $10 mm.

Don't do: 4 years, $20 mm with two team options at $13 mm and a $2 mm buyout.  

Now, keep in mind that my suggestion included his salary for the 2021 season, roughly $600 k.   I didn’t know then what kind of season Means would have in 2021 (probably on the better end of expected outcomes), or that he’d get injured this year.  But what I proposed is very close to what you are suggesting now.   At the time, you felt Means would never accept that deal.   But of course, the injury changes the calculus.  

Our discussion from pre-2021 starts with the post below.   It’s interesting to revisit it in light of everything that has happened since then. 

 

 

Yea the injury is obviously the huge difference.  It’s completely changes every aspect of this.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

God.  This is why team building isn't a linear process.  Why you have to take chances and why you can't just "flip a switch" and build a competitor.  If you want to compete in year X then you need to start taking risks two years earlier.

I suppose we can just add this as the 2022 excuse.

2019 - its the first year of the rebuild and there was no analytics department.

2020 - no minor league season, short major league season

2021 - our first round pick can't play in the minors

2022 - the labor dispute, we didn't get a rule 5 draft, Means got seriously injured.

There WAS a department in 2018. 

Elias doesn't get extra credit if he fired them all or they quit when he took over.

It's insulting to the people that were here to act like they weren't. 

 

Not suggesting that you are, but some folks are making that argument. 

[OriolesMagic83]

One thing I had to look forward to this season was a well pitched game every 5 days from Means.  Now, not so much.  It looks even more suspect not signing another veteran starter (and I don't mean Harvey).  I can somewhat understand being slow on promoting Gray Rod (getting extra year of control), but there should be no such concerns with Bradish.  Too bad the O's aren't guaranteed the 1st pick next year for the worst record, because that seems where the O's are headed.

[OriolesMagic83]

Spencer Watkins Monday, can't wait!

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

It’s not SG’s money.   

I’d be fine with a statement like “the risk is worth the reward and a bad outcome wouldn’t seriously damage their ability to be competitive in the future.”   But to say the contract “wouldn’t hurt them” and has “almost zero downside” is hyperbole.   By the way, if I were the O’s, I’d do that contract.   

It’s not hyperbole but you also believe in the fantasyland  that they are hoarding money in some bank account to spend later, so I can see why you think 6M out of what should be. 120+M budget with a team made up cheap players is meaningful.