O’s ranked 30th in ESPN power rankings

[Frobby]

Projected record: 58-104 (0.2% playoff odds)

If everything goes right ... Cedric Mullinsbuilds on his All-Star season, Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez establish themselves as future stars, the pitching staff -- which had a 5.84 ERA in 2021 -- lowers its ERA by a run a game thanks to the fences getting moved back at Camden Yards, and the Orioles win ... 70 games. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33647294/2022-mlb-season-preview-power-rankings-playoff-odds-everything-need-all-30-teams
 

[MurphDogg]

Can't imagine that their "if everything goes right" blurb for the Orioles in 2012 led to a 92 win maximum. 

Although they would need at least a dozen more than 70 wins to reach the 0.2% playoff odds, so perhaps I am being nitpicky.

[Pickles]

Can't really argue with their take all that much.  Pretty well-reasoned.

I'd take the bet against Mullins repeating 30-30 though.

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

Can't imagine that their "if everything goes right" blurb for the Orioles in 2012 led to a 92 win maximum. 

Although they would need at least a dozen more than 70 wins to reach the 0.2% playoff odds, so perhaps I am being nitpicky.

If our bullpen has the best WPA of all time, crazy things can happen. 

[waroriole]

Just now, Pickles said:

Can't really argue with their take all that much.  Pretty well-reasoned.

I'd take the bet against Mullins repeating 30-30 though.

It’s strange that so people on here love getting it out there that Mullins will regress. It has to be the most expressed belief on here. 

[AlbNYfan]

Can't go to 31st.....I don't think we'll end there (30)...Looking at 27 at season's end.

[glenn__davis]

13 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Can't imagine that their "if everything goes right" blurb for the Orioles in 2012 led to a 92 win maximum. 

Although they would need at least a dozen more than 70 wins to reach the 0.2% playoff odds, so perhaps I am being nitpicky.

I'm pretty sure Buster Olney's "Best Case Scenario" for 2012 was 69 wins.

Not that I'm expecting a repeat of that, but it's baseball.  Youneverknow.

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It’s strange that so people on here love getting it out there that Mullins will regress. It has to be the most expressed belief on here. 

Well, I think it's very likely Mullins does regress.  He was worth 5.7 WAR last year, and had an OPS+ of 135.  I would take the under on both numbers.

That isn't to say he didn't make real improvements last year.  He did.  Or that it was all a mirage.  It wasn't.  

But I expect him to be more of a 3-4 WAR, and 120 OPS+ going forward.  I'd be thrilled if I was underselling him.

[MurphDogg]

8 minutes ago, waroriole said:

If our bullpen has the best WPA of all time, crazy things can happen. 

Yep, that and winning 80+ percent of one-run games leads to success!

My point remains that a 70 win best case scenario is not optimistic enough for my taste and obviously doesn't jibe with 0.2% playoff odds. (although I think a 0.2% playoff odds are about right).

[Three Run Homer]

O's slogan 2022:  "The Best Team We Can Afford To Buy!"

[luismatos4prez]

I think we'll finish 30th in wins, but I don't think we're the worst team in the league this year. 

We're likely going to see GRod, Hall, Adley, Vavra, Stowers, and Bradish this year so I'll have fun watching anyway. Maybe Westburg or Ortiz as well.

[waroriole]

19 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, I think it's very likely Mullins does regress.  He was worth 5.7 WAR last year, and had an OPS+ of 135.  I would take the under on both numbers.

That isn't to say he didn't make real improvements last year.  He did.  Or that it was all a mirage.  It wasn't.  

But I expect him to be more of a 3-4 WAR, and 120 OPS+ going forward.  I'd be thrilled if I was underselling him.

That’s reasonable. Not a comment on your post specifically, more about the volume of people saying it. 

[DocJJ]

If we finish with the worst record again, what does the new CBA do to our draft pick?

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

If we finish with the worst record again, what does the new CBA do to our draft pick?

I haven’t read the fine print, but I believe in that scenario we go into the lottery with the most ping pong balls (16.5% odds of getting the no. 1 pick, tied with the 2nd and 3rd worst teams).   All non-playoff teams are in the lottery, which runs for 6 picks.   After that, it goes by worst record.  There are some restrictions on how often a team can get a lottery pick, but I don’t think they kick in until the 2024 draft.   I’m not completely sure though.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I haven’t read the fine print, but I believe we go into the lottery with the most ping pong balls.   There are some restrictions on how often a team can get a lottery pick, but I don’t think they kick in until the 2024 draft.   I’m not completely sure though.  

Tied for most.

 

Would be hilarious if the O's lost 110 games again and ended up picking 18th.

 

 

The odds for receiving the No. 1 selection are as follows:

Worst record: 16.5%

Second-worst record: 16.5%

Third-worst record: 16.5%

Fourth: 13.25%

Fifth: 10%

Sixth: 7.5%

Seventh: 5.5%

Eighth: 3.9%

Ninth: 2.7%

10th: 1.8%

11th: 1.4%

12th: 1.1%

13th: 0.90%

14th: 0.76%

15th: 0.62%

16th: 0.48%

17th: 0.36%

18th: 0.23%

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/guide-to-the-new-cba-draft-lottery-expanded-playoffs-and-more/