Shortstop playing time watch

[Just Regular]

1st week of Tides outcomes:

Gunnar 3B-SS-3B-SS-SS-3B

Westburg SS-off-SS-2B-2B-SS

This unusual deployment pattern now one step away from MLB.   It can't really manifest there, can it?

I do believe the aggregate starts and stops and being involved in nearly every play on the diamond wears on SS cumulatively similar to C.    A half/half load to try and keep joints fresh into the early 30's...guess I can't rule out it being the frontier of the Decision Science of Rest.

My Occam's razor still tells me neither one is a MLB shortstop, and Mayo, Prieto and Norby are going to have some doors to break down on the dirt, or arms to rent.    Is Westburg ahead of Prieto-Norby?

[LookinUp]

46 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Is Westburg ahead of Prieto-Norby?

Yes. Not that they couldn't overtake him, but he's ahead until they force their way into the conversation. 

Add in Vavra and it would seem like we have a bit of a log jam at 2b moving forward, especially if they're sold on Mayo as a 3B (not sure). That's a good problem to have.

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

1st week of Tides outcomes:

Gunnar 3B-SS-3B-SS-SS-3B

Westburg SS-off-SS-2B-2B-SS

This unusual deployment pattern now one step away from MLB.   It can't really manifest there, can it?

I do believe the aggregate starts and stops and being involved in nearly every play on the diamond wears on SS cumulatively similar to C.    A half/half load to try and keep joints fresh into the early 30's...guess I can't rule out it being the frontier of the Decision Science of Rest.

My Occam's razor still tells me neither one is a MLB shortstop, and Mayo, Prieto and Norby are going to have some doors to break down on the dirt, or arms to rent.    Is Westburg ahead of Prieto-Norby?

Elias stated that he wants to maintain maximum positional flexibility for both of them because he doesn’t know where the biggest holes will be when they arrive.  And unstated, he doesn’t know which of them will be ready first.   I don’t see any likely scenario where Henderson and Westburg are sharing SS like this at the major league level.   But I can see the logic of keeping both of them available to play SS while they’re in AAA.  

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Elias stated that he wants to maintain maximum positional flexibility for both of them because he doesn’t know where the biggest holes will be when they arrive.  And unstated, he doesn’t know which of them will be ready first.   I don’t see any likely scenario where Henderson and Westburg are sharing SS like this at the major league level.   But I can see the logic of keeping both of them available to play SS while they’re in AAA.  

And it should help trade value too.

[seak05]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Elias stated that he wants to maintain maximum positional flexibility for both of them because he doesn’t know where the biggest holes will be when they arrive.  And unstated, he doesn’t know which of them will be ready first.   I don’t see any likely scenario where Henderson and Westburg are sharing SS like this at the major league level.   But I can see the logic of keeping both of them available to play SS while they’re in AAA.  

This. A total guess/thought: if the Orioles want to keep Matteo as a starter next year, then Westburg probably slides to second and Gunnar to third. If they decide they are better off with Urias or Vavra playing (over Matteo) then Westburg probably slides to third and Gunnar remains at SS*. If Gunnar isn't ready yet, and they decide to move on from Matteo for some reason, I think Westburg starts at SS**

* I think Gunnar has a stronger arm and more range at SS, so in this scenario I think the preference would be Gunnar at SS and Westburg at 3rd

** Westburg is older then Gunnar, and if the Orioles were going to promote one of them tomorrow, I think it would be Westburg, he's also more polished defensively 

[higgybaby]

I think the dream scenario would be Gunnar to stick at ss and westburg at 2nd. The offense produced from those two positions could be special. 

[Just Regular]

Compiling this week's nothing much new positionally but wow has Norfolk pitching been horrible this week.   They've hit in a lot of blowouts.

Gunnar 3B-SS-SS-SS-3B-DH

Westburg SS-off-2B-2B-SS-SS

Gunnar's considerably higher chances per inning at Bowie is the main difference I've noticed so far this year.   Hopefully the strong performances bring cups of coffee, and we'll get a view how Hyde will deploy.

[Just Regular]

I believe this week's 3B games for Westburg are his first in AAA after a few weeks.

Gunnar SS-SS-3B-3B-SS-3B

Westburg 2B-3B-SS-SS-3B-SS

 

[pdiddy]

I’ve never played so this is an honest question - is there potential to screw up development by moving them around so much? Mental reps, visualization, positioning without thinking about it, reaction time, etc.? Or at this point they’ve played both (all three) so much it’s second nature and it’s handled easily in warmups?

[glenn__davis]

6 hours ago, pdiddy said:

I’ve never played so this is an honest question - is there potential to screw up development by moving them around so much? Mental reps, visualization, positioning without thinking about it, reaction time, etc.? Or at this point they’ve played both (all three) so much it’s second nature and it’s handled easily in warmups?

I think that's a question that can't really be answered but...is there potential to screw up their development?  Sure.  I think the more reps you get a one position the better you're likely to be able to play that position.  That said, the Orioles seem to think that there is more value in moving these guys around and having them play multiple positions while developing, OR they want them all getting reps at SS figuring they can move them elsewhere later.  It's a bit unorthodox but time will only tell how it will work out.

[Sports Guy]

I see Westburg has 5 errors at AAA.  He played SS yesterday.  Any idea what type of errors he is making and if they have predominately been at SS?

 

[Brian88]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I see Westburg has 5 errors at AAA.  He played SS yesterday.  Any idea what type of errors he is making and if they have predominately been at SS?

 

After looking on milb.com it looks like at AAA he has 2 errors at 2B, 2 at SS and 1 at 3B. 

[btdart20]

10 hours ago, pdiddy said:

I’ve never played so this is an honest question - is there potential to screw up development by moving them around so much? Mental reps, visualization, positioning without thinking about it, reaction time, etc.? Or at this point they’ve played both (all three) so much it’s second nature and it’s handled easily in warmups?

The guys who are playing SS are the most gifted defensively.  They are among the best athletes on the field regarding body control, fundamentals of fielding/throwing, as well as mentally.

The biggest differences IMO:
* the angle toward 1B (and other bases).  So, the approach to fielding a grounder would be slightly different in order to exit the fielding position to make the most in-line throw.  Just like with pitching, machine-like repetition of motion increases accuracy.  Changing the angles changes a baseline variable.
* the mental clock of fielding/throwing the 1B is different.  Reps at the different position would shift the clock (like knowing whether you have time to set your feet to make a more accurate throw).  

Those may seem like small things to the cream of the crop at the sport, but (just like economics) the difference is in the margins.  In 2021 in the MLB, the difference fielding-wise is even tighter than batting average (where 5 hits per 100 ABs is the difference between a .300 and .250 hitter).  To oversimplify, the difference between gold glove level defense at SS and league average SS defense is about 1 more error in 100 chances (.980ish to .970ish).  That number changes, but the point is the marginal difference is pretty slim.  (For all the positives that Mateo has provided on defense this year, it's important to keep this marginal difference in view.)  The average team/SS in 2021 saw 622ish chances on the year.  3.84 chances per game.  Every 26 games, they got to 100 chances.  1 additional error every 26 games (1 a month?) is the marginal difference from a gold glover to league average.  

I appreciate the flexibility during the development stage.  Historically, once a guy settles into a position then it takes something to move him off of that position (diminished skill, a better player is signed, they sign with another team, etc.).  Cal and A-Rod are notable SS examples. But there aren't many starters at the ML level that are constantly moved around on a weekly basis.  I assume most teams see value in the consistent reps at one position, in general. 

It'll be interesting to see what happens what happens when these guys are in Baltimore (especially if a Prieto is with them too).  Will they blaze an org trail?  Why?  Just to increase the trade value of an SS?  How do we measure success in that philosophy?  How do they choose who plays where in Baltimore any given game?  In the minors it was likely based on games/innings.  But in Baltimore, I would think it would be more strategic like playing behind GB pitchers vs. FB pitchers?  Righty/lefty heavy line-ups?  Analytics of where the pitcher/hitters are most likely to hit the ball on a given match-up?  Unless there's something along those lines, I struggle to see the value.

[Just Regular]

Cool post.   

My Occam's Razor still says neither one is because I feel true shortstops don't work on positional flexibility in the minor leagues. 

But just like you can't take Matt Harvey out of a World Series game, Max Scherzer got a dead arm because the Dodgers pitched him too little or Matt Wieters isn't retired (goofing, I think Matt finally acknowledged that one), the best thinking they can do anything is part of what makes them who they are, and its probably healthy for both Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg to aspire to be a MLB shortstop.     Management just has a job to do, sensitively, and wow are those regular MLB jobs popular with the ballplayers.

Its really nice for the Prieto-Norby guy if one of them can hack it.    

The indicator I'm looking for if Elias really believes in one of them at the six is six games in a week there.    Like Marcellus told Butch, I think if it was gonna happen, it woulda happened by now.

[btdart20]

@Just RegularI agree with that take on Gunnar/Westburg.  Both have their pluses/minuses individually and what they would add organizationally.  I can't see the value-add at the ML level in-season other than a utility guy.  And the fact that we don't have any "untouchable" players from 4-6, it really makes sense to continue preparing for any need in Baltimore.  I would be shocked to see 6 of 6 any time soon (barring injury, trade, promotion...).