The season really begins on May 2nd

[wildcard]

Check my math here.

The difference between the number of games in the season (162) and the number of days in the season (181) is the number of days a rookie has to wait before the team gets a 7th year of control (19)   plus one  is (20) days.

The season began on April 8th  plus 20 is April 27th.  That is the day we could see Adley.   Adley will need about 5 days in to get his bat going so he  plays his first game in Norfolk about April 21st considering the one off day.

The O's play the Yankees on April 27 and then play the Red Sox for three.  That is not who you want your rookie pitchers to begin the season against.  They play the Twins on May 2nd followed by the Royals.   I think we see Grayson and Bradish get called up on May 2nd.  That is my theory.

When Adley, Grayson and Bradish are added to what the O's have things get real interesting.   

 

[waroriole]

Adley isn’t playing and there’s been no info about him for a month other than “he’s doing moderate baseball activities.”

[Sports Guy]

I agree the real season starts when these guys are called up.  As for that happening on May 2, who the hell knows.  Bradish should have made the OD roster.  There was never a good reason for him not to.  

[Frobby]

You are way off.   April 18 is the day.   That’s next Monday.   
 

April - 13 days (18th - 30th)

May - 31 days

June - 30 days

July - 31 days

August - 31 Days

September - 30 days

Oxtober - 5 days (1st - 5th)

That adds up to 171 days.  172 is considered a full year of service.

I’d been thinking of starting a thread next Monday, but you beat me to the punch.   

 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You are way off.   April 18 is the day.   That’s next Monday.   
 

April - 13 days (18th - 30th)

May - 31 days

June - 30 days

July - 31 days

August - 31 Days

September - 30 days

Oxtober - 5 days (1st - 5th)

That adds up to 171 days.  172 is considered a full year of service.

I’d been thinking of starting a thread next Monday, but you beat me to the punch.   

 

He's on the minor league disabled list.  I don't see him coming off of it and rehabbing in time to make that cutoff.

What we need to do is figure out the probable Super 2 cutoff since that might be the actual date.  On the bright side, other teams actually starting their seasons with their best young players should accelerate the cutoff date.

[Orioles0615]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Adley isn’t playing and there’s been no info about him for a month other than “he’s doing moderate baseball activities.”

Yea I am getting a little worried about lack of updates other then "progressing" or "baseball activities" which is a fancy term for he played catch for 10 mins yesterday  

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Why 13 days in April?  The season began on the April 8th.   That is 23 days in April.

As of April 18, there will be 13 days left in April, and 171 left in the season (April 18 included).   That’s when it is no longer possible to earn a full year of service.  

Just to elaborate, the easiest way to calculate this is to count backwards from the last day of the season.   It’s the last day, not the first day, that determines the date on which it’s no longer possible to reach 172 days of service (which is the number set in the CBA as a full year).  
 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You are way off.   April 18 is the day.   That’s next Monday.   
 

April - 13 days (18th - 30th)

May - 31 days

June - 30 days

July - 31 days

August - 31 Days

September - 30 days

Oxtober - 5 days (1st - 5th)

That adds up to 171 days.  172 is considered a full year of service.

I’d been thinking of starting a thread next Monday, but you beat me to the punch.   

 

OK.  Its only about days of service not games.  I messed that up.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's on the minor league disabled list.  I don't see him coming off of it and rehabbing in time to make that cutoff.

What we need to do is figure out the probable Super 2 cutoff since that might be the actual date.  On the bright side, other teams actually starting their seasons with their best young players should accelerate the cutoff date.

It’s really impossible to guess the Super-Two cutoff.   The actual date won’t be known until after the 2024 season is complete and you can see what players with less than 3 but more than 2 years of service are in the top 22% in terms of most service time.   It’s varied all the way from second week of May to second week of June in the past.   Josh Hader debuted on June 10 and was still a super Two.   I personally don’t think they will wait that long if players are performing well.    But we’ll see.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

OK.  Its only about days of service not games.  I messed that up.

Correct.   Here’s a convenient method I just came up with, since the last day of the season varies from year to year.  If the season ends on Sept. 30, the cutoff date is April 13.   From there, just add or subtract the number of days between the actual end date and Sept. 30.   October 5 -> April 18.   September 28 -> April 11.    I’m going to try to remember that rule when this topic inevitably arises next year and thereafter.   

[seak05]

I agree, season starts when Adley, Grayson et al debut. That said, I think the only one for whom it’s a service time issue right now is Grayson. 
 

Adley’s still in Sarasota “rehabbing”, Bradish is 25 & not considered that premium a prospect.

So call it two weeks from whenever Adley gets to Norfolk 

[Sports Guy]

Roch provided me with an update on Adley via Twitter:

 

[jamalshw]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s really impossible to guess the Super-Two cutoff.   The actual date won’t be known until after the 2024 season is complete and you can see what players with less than 3 but more than 2 years of service are in the top 22% in terms of most service time.   It’s varied all the way from second week of May to second week of June in the past.   Josh Hader debuted on June 10 and was still a super Two.   I personally don’t think they will wait that long if players are performing well.    But we’ll see.

I agree they don't wait that long for Adley mostly because I don't know if they can milk this injury long enough. I also don't think they wait on it for Bradish. You don't half-a** pushing back to after the Super-2. If they choose to wait until they think they can get the extra year of arb for Super-2, they don't call him up until mid June because you don't wait weeks longer than necessary unless you are 100% sure you get past the Super-2 cutoff. Otherwise, it's not worth it. Given the ages on Bradish and Rutschman, there'd be too much upheaval to wait until near mid-season.  

I, however, could see them waiting on Rodriguez. The kid is well below the average age for AAA and has to date made just one start there. Given the different ball and more offensively friendly environment as well as his less than stellar spring appearance, the argument can be made for giving him nearly half a season in Norfolk. Of course, that argument goes out the window if 5 starts in he's still mowing down hitters like he did in his first start. 

I really hope you are right and we are seeing these guys in the Majors within weeks rather than months. Once they are on the roster, this becomes a much more exciting team to watch. It may not translate into too many more wins in 2022 as there will be growing pains, but it'll at least be more interesting to watch the improvement as the season progresses.  

[Moose Milligan]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Roch provided me with an update on Adley via Twitter:

 

I like Roch, but he's the company man.  Adley could be getting ready for Tommy John and he wouldn't tell you unless he was cleared by the team to do so.

"Increasing activities" is vague.  I'm not normally paranoid/concerned about stuff like this but my bull**** detector is ringing off the charts here.  You're right, he should be ready for game action according to the original timeline now.

The only logical conclusion based on the facts that he's not seeing gametime action and they're ONLY "increasing activities" means that it was worse than they originally anticipated. 

How much worse was it?  I guess we'll find out.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I like Roch, but he's the company man.  Adley could be getting ready for Tommy John and he wouldn't tell you unless he was cleared by the team to do so.

"Increasing activities" is vague.  I'm not normally paranoid/concerned about stuff like this but my bull**** detector is ringing off the charts here.  You're right, he should be ready for game action according to the original timeline now.

The only logical conclusion based on the facts that he's not seeing gametime action and they're ONLY "increasing activities" means that it was worse than they originally anticipated. 

How much worse was it?  I guess we'll find out.  

To be fair, my prediction last week or so was that he would appear in extended ST games sometime this week.  Then he would go to AAA for 1-2 weeks and be ready late April/early May.

All of that can still happen.

The injury was announced on March 16.  They said it was going to be a 2-3 week shutdown and then resume baseball activities.  That has happened.  

It has now been 4 weeks since that announcement was made.  

Game action should be occurring soon.

And disagree what you are saying about Roch.  He’s going to say what he’s being told.  He’s not going to lie about it.