The LF wall tracker

[OriolesMagic83]

6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's not 1978.  Trey and his agent can pull out the spray charts and the rest of the data and show a good estimate of the number of homers he'd have hit in any other park in the world.  He can show his context-adjusted production.  If any MLB team is offering contracts on the basis of non-park-adjusted HR totals I wouldn't want to play for them.

This is kind of the opposite of saying everyone who hits in Colorado gets a contract 50% bigger.  Clearly that doesn't happen.

Only the salary arbitration is based on that. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's not 1978.  Trey and his agent can pull out the spray charts and the rest of the data and show a good estimate of the number of homers he'd have hit in any other park in the world.  He can show his context-adjusted production.  If any MLB team is offering contracts on the basis of non-park-adjusted HR totals I wouldn't want to play for them.

This is kind of the opposite of saying everyone who hits in Colorado gets a contract 50% bigger.  Clearly that doesn't happen.

Trey really has been extremely unlucky on the HR front.  His expected homer total is 13, compared to his actual 6.  Moreover, according to Statcast, if he played all his games at OPACY, he’d have 8 homers.   So not only has OPACY’s new wall taken away several homers, he’s also had at least two hits on the road that would have been homers if he’d hit them at home.   The poor guy can’t win.  

[justD]

New twist on the reaction to the wall from Baseball Prospectus - "The Rest of the League Should Copy the Orioles" !

The article discusses how various sports have adjusted to the way games are played in their sport with similar arena or park changes.  Does address that this might not be well received by purists.  But the basic argument is to evolve to better match how the game is being played. 

Quote

All of this was in reaction to players getting bigger, stronger, faster. The NBA didn’t start building bigger arenas to put bigger courts into. They changed the interior dimensions of the space they were working in: wider lanes, more points for longer shots, penalties for vertically overdoing it on defense. This is the kind of thinking that MLB is going to eventually have to consider. They now have pitchers constantly throwing at speeds that fans my age and older were not even aware was physically possible not all that long ago. Hitters are taught to be both extremely patient and powerful, which is why MLB is simultaneously trying to mess with pace of play while also adding enough drag to the ball to limit homers. Everything is trending toward a level of efficiency that makes the concept of baseball itself seem pretty solved: maybe it’s time to change things up a bit, to adjust for all the growing that’s occurred both physically and in how the game itself is played.

This isn’t a suggestion to start making longer homers worth more runs or anything. But to consider that maybe the O’s had things right by changing the dimensions of their park. Their outfield is now larger, a little more modern-hitter proof. This is something every team could do—switch from the trend toward smaller parks and smaller outfields, to larger of both. They don’t need to build 30 new stadiums, either, just like the NBA didn’t need to build entirely new arenas, or the Orioles a new home. Just change the in-stadium dimensions, lose some seats, and convert that space into more outfield. 

It doesn’t have to just be bigger outfields, either: those could result in a bit of a non-homer resurgence in offense, an increase to the batting average on balls in play that is apparently now missing, especially as players begin to adjust to the changes once they’re of a league-wide scale, but there is more that can be done. Pitchers are capable of throwing extremely hard at maximum effort, and it’s going to be difficult to get this trend to stop, given its successes. So, maybe the mound needs to be moved back, changing the perceived velocity of all of these pitches, as well as the shape of them, too. Maybe with how efficient baserunning and defense is these days, we need larger basepaths, and larger infields. It’s not like the players are going to get any slower, or their positioning any worse, as conditioning and preparation both continue their quests for perfection. All that’s left, like with the NBA realizing the era of the big man was coming, and then the era of the shooter, is to change the dimensions and the meaning of it all.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/75627/the-rest-of-the-league-should-copy-the-orioles/

[Frobby]

Here are some interesting home/road splits through June:

Offense: 1.00 HR/game at home, 1.05 on the road.  
Pitching: 0.71 HR/game at home, 1.31 on the road.

I haven’t seen a recent breakdown of how many homers the wall has cost us vs. our opposition, but the above suggests it’s working in our favor.

 

 

[Spy Fox]

 

The wall has been a factor today. The Hays double above is a HR everywhere else, a Mountcastle flyout was 14/30 but would have been out in old Camden, and an Urias flyout just now I think would have been a tough wall play in old Camden but was instead routine. Unfortunately Garver made it over. 

[SilverRocket]

Back-to-back robberies.

[ChuckS]

Rutschman just hit one oppo that would have been a HR under the old dimensions. 

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Rutschman just hit one oppo that would have been a HR under the old dimensions. 

 

[Aglets]

Did some number crunching here.   We are just a bit beyond the season midway point, so i thought it might be worth checking in here.  Rather than do an analysis of individual fly balls in each game, I am just looking at aggregate stats.  To be clear, there are still some SSS concerns, and I know the strength of schedule hasn't been identical for home/away games, but it will get there.

Interestingly enough, the Orioles are scoring MORE runs at home so far in 2022 vs on the road.  (4.31 Runs scored / game at home vs 3.98 on the road).   This is a bit unexpected and will be worth following to see if it normalizes over the rest of the season. 

We are allowing one whole run fewer per game at home vs away.  (3.79 runs allowed / game at home vs 4.78 when we are away).

So to be clear, I am not drawing any definitive conclusions from this.

I am NOT saying that the wall is guaranteed to save us 81 runs allowed over the course of the year (and allow us to score roughly 27 extra runs, for a total of +108 Run Differential).

I am NOT saying that I would do something as irresponsible as saying that those extra 108 runs over the course of the year will boost us by 10 or 11 wins this year, according to the principle that 10 runs or so equals a win in sabermetrics.

I am NOT saying that the wall moving back has unilaterally caused all of this surprise success.

I will simply say, I was pleased when the announcement was made about the wall moving back at the time.  I explained my reasons in threads like this.  And I am pleased with the results so far. 

[Orioles4Life21]

I feel a bit better about it now but still feel it they overcorrected a bit and I still hate the way it looks. 
 

I will continue to curse the wall when it steals a homer from us and rejoice every time it keeps an opponents ball in the park lol.

[sportsfan8703]

Welp the wall cost us two HR yesterday. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Welp the wall cost us two HR yesterday. 

Meh...  On a positive note, Would It Dong? is back!

 

[Hazmat]

Mountcastle was not pleased with the wall yesterday.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

Mountcastle was not pleased with the wall yesterday.

No, but he’s also hit a lot of hard-hit balls to center and right that have been caught in the early going.  You can kind of see he’s getting frustrated.  

[bpilktree]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No, but he’s also hit a lot of hard-hit balls to center and right that have been caught in the early going.  You can kind of see he’s getting frustrated.  

I don’t remember a player that seemed to hit more balls hard homers or not that get caught for outs.  He just seems to hit into a lot of bad luck.