Austin Hays 2022

[jdwilde1]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

All of his defensive numbers show him to be subpar and even though he has some speed, he gets poor jumps and reads on balls.  
 

Yea he has a good arm but so what.  Lots of guys have good arms. The defense is declining.  All of these injuries start to take a toll on your body and these things start to happen.  It just is what it is.

This is factually incorrect.  Last year Hays had a +14 Rfield, this year he is +2, and he’s +17 for his career.  And if I recall, his Rfield was higher earlier in the season before he started getting banged-up.

Hays isn’t a perfect player, but he does a lot of things well.  He plays really hard, which has resulted in a few injuries. He’s also had some bad luck with getting hit by pitches in his hand and wrist.  My opinion is that his injuries should have resulted in an IL stint, but  he likely pushed to not go on the IL because he wanted to show that he could make it through a season. 
 

 

[oldfan]

Not a lot of guys have good arms in the outfield these days. Especially in rightfield, too many runners easily going first to third on singles to right. Years ago everyone knew there were three or four guys you couldn't run on.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, jdwilde1 said:

This is factually incorrect.  Last year Hays had a +14 Rfield, this year he is +2, and he’s +17 for his career.  And if I recall, his Rfield was higher earlier in the season before he started getting banged-up.

It’s a matter of which fielding religion, er, stat set, you subscribe to.  By OAA, he’s below average.  By Rfield (same as Rdrs), he’s above average.  Both have pluses and minuses as stats.  So take your pick.  

[sportsfan8703]

.917 OPS over his last 7 games. He’s played in more games than last year, walked more, doubled more, just has hit 6 less HR. 
 

His OPS is down 44 pts from last season. Gotta chalk that up to the Wall. 

[Moose Milligan]

41 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

.917 OPS over his last 7 games. He’s played in more games than last year, walked more, doubled more, just has hit 6 less HR. 
 

His OPS is down 44 pts from last season. Gotta chalk that up to the Wall. 

Higher batting average, OBP at home.  Lower slugging percentage by .012 points.  .751 OPS at home, .699 away.  

 

[Frobby]

I’m sure Hays took one look at the Green Monster yesterday and dreamed about how many more homers he’d hit if he played in Fenway 81 games a year.  

[deward]

57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m sure Hays took one look at the Green Monster yesterday and dreamed about how many more homers he’d hit if he played in Fenway 81 games a year.  

Can't blame him

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, deward said:

Can't blame him

Yesterday’s homer was 359 feet.  That would have been a medium deep fly out in the new OPACY LF.

[Just Regular]

Savant recently unveiled an Arm Strength leaderboard, where Hays rates pretty great.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?year=2022&minThrows=100&pos=&team=

29th among 366 fielders MLB-wide with 100 throws.     Brett Phillips was just outside the Top 10.

They released 2020 and 2021 also; Hays failed to qualify with just 30-odd games in the short 2020, but in 2021 he also registered very high, 12th of 369.

[Jim'sKid26]

Man he really underperformed against LH pitching this year. He absolutely crushed Lefties last year and was downright anemic against them this year. Not sure I understand that.

2021: .308/.346/.551  Iso=0.242 11 Hrs

2022: .247/.313/.390 Iso=0.144  4 Hrs

Edited October 3, 2022 by Jim'sKid26
Stats

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Man he really underperformed against LH pitching this year. He absolutely crusheed Lefties last you and was downright anemic against them this year. Not sure I understand that.

Stuff happens.

[Il BuonO]

I’d say give him another shot, but with the depth they have in the OF I think it’s time to move on from Hays.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Savant recently unveiled an Arm Strength leaderboard, where Hays rates pretty great.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/arm-strength?year=2022&minThrows=100&pos=&team=

29th among 366 fielders MLB-wide with 100 throws.     Brett Phillips was just outside the Top 10.

They released 2020 and 2021 also; Hays failed to qualify with just 30-odd games in the short 2020, but in 2021 he also registered very high, 12th of 369.

So….I’m supposed to believe that there are 132 players in baseball with a stronger arm than Manny Machado?  Sorry, but this metric doesn’t work for me.  

[OriolesMagic83]

On 9/27/2022 at 8:07 AM, Frobby said:

I’m sure Hays took one look at the Green Monster yesterday and dreamed about how many more homers he’d hit if he played in Fenway 81 games a year.  

It seems like Hays hits a lot of line drives.  Maybe more doubles and singles than home runs.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Man he really underperformed against LH pitching this year. He absolutely crushed Lefties last year and was downright anemic against them this year. Not sure I understand that.

2021: .308/.346/.551  Iso=0.242 11 Hrs

2022: .247/.313/.390 Iso=0.144  4 Hrs

I wouldn’t call .703 OPS anemic.  He was 4th best of all RHB on the team vs. LHP, ahead of guys like Mountcastle and Mancini, among others.   

Individual splits against LHP are volatile from year to year, because hitters only see them about 30% of the time.  Show me almost any hitter who’s played 5+ years in the bigs and I’ll be surprised if the variance between their highest and lowest yearly OPS vs. LHP isn’t 200 points.  Here’s the 10 RHBs closest to Hays this year (minimum 100 PA vs.LHB).  I’ve listed 2022, and their previous high/low (seasons with 100 PA minimum vs. LHP)

Flores .715  1.093/.610

Merrifield .712 .945/.712

Guerrero .711  .946/.643

India .709  .825/.709

Bregman .705  1.186/.705

Cron .703  1.020/.672

Chavis .703   .742/.703

Hernandez .698   .810/.641

Cabrera .697   1.210/.697

Mountcastle .693  .842/.693

As you can see, the fluctuations are very wide.  Of the three that are close together (Chavis, India, Mountcastle), they’ve only had two years with 100+ PA vs. LHP.   Give them a few more years, and their variances will get wider.