Austin Hays 2022

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think you need to have contingency plans.  I don’t expect Hays to play 150 games and have an .800 OPS.  I hope he can do that, and it wouldn’t shock me if he did.  But you might end up giving a chunk of his playing time to Stowers, Cowser or some other player we acquire.  

It’s like Mike Tyson once said: “Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth.” 
 

Hays should be the contingency plan, not the other way around.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hays should be the contingency plan, not the other way around.

So what’s Plan A?

[waroriole]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hays should be the contingency plan, not the other way around.

I see Hays more as a platoon guy. He can play against LHP and RH when he’s hitting. Between Cowser, Stowers, and Vavra there’s plenty of OF/DH guys that should limit Hays to 400ish ABs if he can’t be more productive at the plate next year. 

[Sports Guy]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So what’s Plan A?

Well we have to see.  Where does Stowers play?  I’m guessing they don’t move him to first, so he is one COer.  
 

How quickly do you go to Cowser?  He may be plan A even if he’s not OD plan A.  They could sign or trade for someone.

All I know is there shouldn’t be any version of a plan where you go into the season counting on Hays for 500+ at bats.  And I hate to say that because I like him but enough is enough.

[Frobby]

By the way, Hays is 27th in most games played by an outfielder in 2021-22 combined.   So it’s kind of ironic that he’s always getting knocked for not being durable, as though there’s some huge contingent of Cal Ripken-type outfielders out there.  He’s had his bumps and bruises and had some IL time last year, but by and large, he’s posted more than most guys.  

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

By the way, Hays is 27th in most games played by an outfielder in 2021-22 combined.   So it’s kind of ironic that he’s always getting knocked for not being durable, as though there’s some huge contingent of Cal Ripken-type outfielders out there.  He’s had his bumps and bruises and had some IL time last year, but by and large, he’s posted more than most guys.  

But he’s often hurt.  If he plays but can’t perform where he should, who cares if he posts?

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

But he’s often hurt.  If he plays but can’t perform where he should, who cares if he posts?

To me, that’s more on the manager.  The job of the player is to say, “I’m healthy enough to play.”  The job of the manager is to say, “maybe, but you’re not going to because I have someone who can play better right now.”  And the job of the GM is to say, “here’s someone who can play better right now.”

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

To me, that’s more on the manager.  The job of the player is to say, “I’m healthy enough to play.”  The job of the manager is to say, “maybe, but you’re not going to because I have someone who can play better right now.”  And the job of the GM is to say, “here’s someone who can play better right now.”

Right..and if the manager and GM IL him, then he doesn’t post anyway.

Either way, it doesn’t really matter.  He’s hurt or injured often.  Whether he plays or not is irrelevant because when he plays, he’s a negative value player, as he has been for the last 2-3 months.

So, he’s either on the IL not posting or he’s on the field playing poorly. I’m good with him being on the team and having a role but entering the season, that role should be on the bench or, even if he starts, moving him to the bench for Cowser soon enough.

[wildcard]

49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Right..and if the manager and GM IL him, then he doesn’t post anyway.

Either way, it doesn’t really matter.  He’s hurt or injured often.  Whether he plays or not is irrelevant because when he plays, he’s a negative value player, as he has been for the last 2-3 months.

So, he’s either on the IL not posting or he’s on the field playing poorly. I’m good with him being on the team and having a role but entering the season, that role should be on the bench or, even if he starts, moving him to the bench for Cowser soon enough.

Making Hays a bench player is a little extreme IMO.  In late June he had a 834 OPS and was playing great defense.  Three months of that is worth a lot.   He is arbitration eligible this off season and will probably make 2.5 to 3M.   O's are probably not paying that  for a bench player.   

I would plan for Hays to be the starting LF with a backup that  can fill in without too much drop off in production when he is hurt and on the IL.

Edited September 24, 2022 by wildcard

[Jim'sKid26]

LF has to be one of the positions where the O's shop for a MoO bat in FA or via trade. Hayes is not a MoO bat. He is a useful piece but a good team should look to upgrade if possible. Hayes as a 4th OF who can back up CF and get 350 ABs is really valuable. He could spell Mullins against tough LH pitchers. He's a dangerous PH late in games. He's got speed to pinch run. And he's cheap. Used correctly he can really contribute to a playoff caliber team. I just don't think he's the best option as the starting LF next year.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Jim'sKid26
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[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Making Hays a bench player is a little extreme IMO.  In late June he had a 834 OPS and was playing great defense.  Three months of that is worth a lot.   He is arbitration eligible this off season and will probably make 2.5 to 3M.   O's are probably not paying that  for a bench player.   

I would plan for Hays to be the starting LF with a backup that  can fill in without too much drop off in production when he is hurt and on the IL.

Well I’m not sure he was playing great defense.  And sure, the OPS was good in that SSS.  But the season didn’t end that day.  
 

The problem for him isn’t that he can’t play.  It’s that he’s not consistent and can’t stay healthy.  
 

You guys just seem to have this mentality that just because he does it in short stints that he can do it over a full season.  He has yet to prove that.

I’m not saying he can’t.  But I am saying you can’t rely on it.

2023 is supposed to be a year where you contending for not just a playoff spot but for the division.  You need to get better in a lot of areas and not rely on oft injured guys who you like because the Os brought them up.

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well I’m not sure he was playing great defense.  And sure, the OPS was good in that SSS.  But the season didn’t end that day.  
 

The problem for him isn’t that he can’t play.  It’s that he’s not consistent and can’t stay healthy.  
 

You guys just seem to have this mentality that just because he does it in short stints that he can do it over a full season.  He has yet to prove that.

I’m not saying he can’t.  But I am saying you can’t rely on it.

2023 is supposed to be a year where you contending for not just a playoff spot but for the division.  You need to get better in a lot of areas and not rely on oft injured guys who you like because the Os brought them up.

I am not saying the O's should plan on him getting 600 at bats.  I think he should play when healthy and productive.   That is why I think the O's should have a backup that is good enough to almost match Hays' production when Hays is healthy.

As far as Hays defense.  Teams don't run on Hays because he has proven that his arm is strong and accurate and he can throw out runners.    His speed is good enough to cover Camden's left field which is one of the largest in the MLB.

Edited September 24, 2022 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am not saying the O's should plan on him getting 600 at bats.  I think he should play when healthy and productive.   That is why I think the O's should have a backup that is good enough to almost match Hays' production when Hays is healthy.

As far as Hays defense.  Teams don't run on Hays because he has proven that his arm is strong and accurate and he can throw out runners.    His speed is good enough to cover Camden's left field which is one of the largest in the MLB.

All of his defensive numbers show him to be subpar and even though he has some speed, he gets poor jumps and reads on balls.  
 

Yea he has a good arm but so what.  Lots of guys have good arms. The defense is declining.  All of these injuries start to take a toll on your body and these things start to happen.  It just is what it is.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

All of his defensive numbers show him to be subpar and even though he has some speed, he gets poor jumps and reads on balls.  
 

Yea he has a good arm but so what.  Lots of guys have good arms. The defense is declining.  All of these injuries start to take a toll on your body and these things start to happen.  It just is what it is.

IMO Hays defense was better when he was healthy.  The mid section injury has slowed him some in the 2nd half.  As I said, when he is healthy he is productive. That includes his defense.  That is why the O's need a good backup for Hays.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am not saying the O's should plan on him getting 600 at bats.  I think he should play when healthy and productive.   That is why I think the O's should have a backup that is good enough to almost match Hays' production when Hays is healthy.

This is logical.  Can Stowers be that guy?  Hard to know.  

As to Cowser, with his pedigree he may turn out to be better than Hays, in which case he should play more than Hays.  

I’m fine with having a competitive situation in our OF with 4-5 good options competing for playing time and at bats.