Olney on trade deadline

[Moose Milligan]

I'm waffling on trading Hays/Mullins.  I would hope that they're listening to offers but the offers would have to be good.  As some of you noted, it's not like our outfielders in the minors are killing it right now.  

However, everything can change.  But I'd be alright with parting with Mullins and/or Hays because speed doesn't always age well.  And speed is a big part of Mullins' game, and to a lesser extent, Hays.

Mancini should be dealt, although it'd be a heartbreaker.  

I'm not sure what you guys are expecting to get back for Lyles.  IIRC it's a 1 year deal with a team option, right?

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Couple points.

One, that GM better watch out, he said the O's are tanking, them fightin' words in these parts. 

Also, funny that Buster thinks Elias cares about goodwill existing with the fans.

Baseball media would be better if you only got comments about your team's progress from other GM's, speaking off the record.

Mike Elias, tell me about the Red Sox 5-year outlook.

[UMDTerrapins]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not sure what you guys are expecting to get back for Lyles.  IIRC it's a 1 year deal with a team option, right?

Correct. I'm thinking a return somewhere between the 2020 version of Jean Pinto and filling the clubhouse soda machine for three years. And that oh so badly needed salary relief! 

[wildcard]

Olney can bite it.    Mullins, the All Star and Hays, the 5 tool player are part of the rebuild not a casualty of it.    Will they be traded in 2024? Maybe, when replacements are in place.  

He wants some young guys how about Grayson and DL with Gunnar moving up fast.

[Just Regular]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Then extend them.

If you think they are part of the core they should be extended.

Either of those options is better than just letting them walk.

Hays-Mullins-Santander, I could see the Economic Analyst concluding today they are all at basically a natural equilibrium where the expiration of their years of club control is also the last year they project as plus starters for a team as good as the 2026 Orioles.

Grayson-Gunnar are the exciting test cases.   If there are Power Rankings of what Orioles should make eight figures in the back half of the decade, they are right there with anyone drafted 1-1.

I don't think Elias will deploy the Machado money on Chris Davis, and he has the most info if 2026's flexibility is $80mm, $130mm or $180mm.

July will be interesting if Elias deals an asset as big as Hays or Mullins...everything has been small fry.    There's another couple months but the starting outfielders to me are improving Supporting Cast stalwart status.    If all goes well, Stowers, Haskin, Cowser and Kjerstad are the trade bait for their teams, not the other way around.

That Baseball Trade Values thing today guesses median surpluses of Mullins 52, Hays 21, Mountcastle 19, Santander 6.    The first baseman should be in this July's rumors if the outfielders are - I think I trust Mayo for 2025 more than any of the OF's and he and Gunnar can't both play 3B.

Fangraphs Team Stats today sees the BAL OF 10th in baseball YTD.    Santander as apt pupil of Fuller-Borgschulte lessons like Gunnar is I feel a lot more interesting than if Kyle Stowers could keep his K rate in the low 30's.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31

[connja]

I disagree with buster based on my orange colored glasses showing me the Os can most definitely contend for the WC in 2024 with current roster and prospects.  

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, connja said:

I disagree with buster based on my orange colored glasses showing me the Os can most definitely contend for the WC in 2024 with current roster and prospects.  

The question is, can they do that without these guys while also being set up better long term?

I think the answer is yes.

[UMDTerrapins]

If Henderson is playing either SS or 3B next year, we're currently looking at filling two infield positions from a group of Westburg, Urias, Mateo, Prieto, Vavra, or going outside the organization. The rest of the offense is mostly set (in pencil). No longer a bad lineup, though one which will have ups and downs with a number of young hitters. And then a rotation from Rodriguez, Hall, Means, Zimmerman, Bradish, T. Wells and what currently looks like a passable bullpen. That's a solid foundation. Elias will have some tough calls to turn that foundation into a contender. I think it's a total unknown if Elias will be able to make the kind of moves to convert the organization's talent assets into a serious playoff contender. But those two infield positions are really key in my view. Do we continue to audition from our current talent? Do we make a FA splash for one of those spots? Between our extremely low payroll and the talent in the organization, those are the kinds of decisions that will make or break us and Elias because the means are there for him now. This offseason, not 2-3 years from now. I agree...Olney can bite it on this one. 

[Sports Guy]

I would be in favor, this season, of trading for a starter with age and service time on their side and using Mountcastle as a main piece in the deal.  

I could be talked into that being the better way of doing things vs dealing Mullins.

Whether that player or deal is out there is a different issue though.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would be in favor, this season, of trading for a starter with age and service time on their side and using Mountcastle as a main piece in the deal.  

I could be talked into that being the better way of doing things vs dealing Mullins.

Whether that player or deal is out there is a different issue though.

I don't think Mountcastle works as a main piece in that sort of deal.

[maybenxtyr]

9 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

If Henderson is playing either SS or 3B next year, we're currently looking at filling two infield positions from a group of Westburg, Urias, Mateo, Prieto, Vavra, or going outside the organization. The rest of the offense is mostly set (in pencil). No longer a bad lineup, though one which will have ups and downs with a number of young hitters. And then a rotation from Rodriguez, Hall, Means, Zimmerman, Bradish, T. Wells and what currently looks like a passable bullpen. That's a solid foundation. Elias will have some tough calls to turn that foundation into a contender. I think it's a total unknown if Elias will be able to make the kind of moves to convert the organization's talent assets into a serious playoff contender. But those two infield positions are really key in my view. Do we continue to audition from our current talent? Do we make a FA splash for one of those spots? Between our extremely low payroll and the talent in the organization, those are the kinds of decisions that will make or break us and Elias because the means are there for him now. This offseason, not 2-3 years from now. I agree...Olney can bite it on this one. 

I wish you were right. I think there's a lot of potential for a solid base or core, the only part that I question is what timeline will Elias use for call ups? 

 

The horse has been best to death but as of right now it's impossible to try to predict when any of the MiL talent will be up.

[UMDTerrapins]

I think there's a common unthought assumption (and I include myself in that thinking) that our ability to compete has to come exclusively from within. We have the lowest payroll in baseball and will likely shed Mancini and Lyles' salaries. For example, trading Mullins, moving Hays to CF, and signing a big corner OF bat should be an option that we can pursue if the return for Mullins is good. Our rebuild includes that ability to sign a few impactful free agents. And that should include constructing the roster for 2023. 2022 is the year that we turn the corner, in the way that I define turning the corner with a number of meaningful debuts. 2023 and beyond, given what Elias has to work with, he should be judged on wins and playoff appearances. I'm done grading on a curve. And waiting 2-3 years like Olney implied. 

[Sports Guy]

There is no argument that we are 3+ years away from being really good.  If that’s the case, fire Elias now because that’s a complete and utter failure.

[Just Regular]

16 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I wish you were right. I think there's a lot of potential for a solid base or core, the only part that I question is what timeline will Elias use for call ups? 

The most relevant data for late July is the data Adley-Grayson-Gunnar-DL are about to furnish in the next two months.   (Sorry, Bruce.)

How much time will Elias have between the draft signee deadline and the trade deadline?   You can't squeeze Druw Jones for 400k for your 5th round pick and conduct Ryan Mountcastle trade talks all at once.

There's maybe a multiverse where in August the Orioles have Jacob Berry, Garrett Crochet, and Garrett Crochet and the Club decides to pay some of its Gunnar Henderson-Cesar Prieto acclimation tax in 2022.    That would be a fun September.    No muddying up the water of who is the franchise fulcrum - its Adley Rutschman.

[Yossarian]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Hays-Mullins-Santander, I could see the Economic Analyst concluding today they are all at basically a natural equilibrium where the expiration of their years of club control is also the last year they project as plus starters for a team as good as the 2026 Orioles.

Grayson-Gunnar are the exciting test cases.   If there are Power Rankings of what Orioles should make eight figures in the back half of the decade, they are right there with anyone drafted 1-1.

I don't think Elias will deploy the Machado money on Chris Davis, and he has the most info if 2026's flexibility is $80mm, $130mm or $180mm.

July will be interesting if Elias deals an asset as big as Hays or Mullins...everything has been small fry.    There's another couple months but the starting outfielders to me are improving Supporting Cast stalwart status.    If all goes well, Stowers, Haskin, Cowser and Kjerstad are the trade bait for their teams, not the other way around.

That Baseball Trade Values thing today guesses median surpluses of Mullins 52, Hays 21, Mountcastle 19, Santander 6.    The first baseman should be in this July's rumors if the outfielders are - I think I trust Mayo for 2025 more than any of the OF's and he and Gunnar can't both play 3B.

Fangraphs Team Stats today sees the BAL OF 10th in baseball YTD.    Santander as apt pupil of Fuller-Borgschulte lessons like Gunnar is I feel a lot more interesting than if Kyle Stowers could keep his K rate in the low 30's.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31

And we should have Dru Jones ML-ready by 2026, too - right?