Position Players for the Competitive Window?

[justcompete]

While 22' is certainly more competitive, we are not competing for the playoffs.

2023 is likely be another step but my guess is our competitive window is 24-28'

Who is still around, who should be dealt, what do we look like?

Catcher- should be set

1st-Mountcastle- turned 25 in 22'.  27-30- should be in his prime

2nd- Vavra?  Move over one of the SS?  Too early to tell on Norby and Prieto looks good early.

SS- Could be solved in the farm system- Henderson, Westburg- 

3rd-Likley to solved by one of the players above if they can't stick at SS, or Mayo.

Outfield- do Cowser, Stowers, Kjerstad- all make it??  Diaz.  Hayes will be 29 in the summer of 24'.

Mullins, Santander- too old, too costly for that window?

Arms- hardest part to tackle- pitching prospect are fragile.

I feel like arms and infielders should be the focus on the draft, trades and free agency in the two years leading up the window.  Outfield has the greatest potential to be solved from what we have now.  

Does that lead us to Jackson Holliday- a High School SS- do we go with Brooks Lee a College SS?  Avoid the OFs due to our depth?

Arms and Infielders

Next year's SS Free Agents

Shortstop: Tim Anderson (club option), Elvis Andrus (player option), Xander Bogaerts (opt-out), Carlos Correa (opt-out), Didi Gregorius, José Iglesias, Andrelton Simmons, Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner, Jonathan Villar

 

 

 

 

[BirdinBama]

To the last part of your post we should draft the best player available, and the consensus on that is Druw Jones.

[btdart20]

We should know much more about Prieto and Westburg by 2024.

BPA on the draft.  Especially at 1.1.  

Xander and Correa probably opt out.  And I bet the LAD don’t resign Trea.  He’s currently blocking someone.  But they are the Dodgers so who knows?  So hopefully we have those 3 dance with.

Not really interested in what the rest add offensively.  Tim A is good but aging and can’t take a walk.

[justcompete]

I guess I would like to see us land 1 'nugget' next FA period and then hopefully 2 in the following period.  

 

[Camden_yardbird]

I hate threads like this.  You acquire talent and shake it out.  Dont count on any one guy in a specific year.  Players get injured.  Sure things don't pan out.  Some guys take longer to develop.

The problems is, unless the Orioles start participating in a meaningful way in free agency and extending some of their home grown players they won't ever be competitive, they will perpetually be "a year away."

[oriole]

I think you can count Kjerstad out and all of the OF on the roster now will be traded. I imagine an OF mix of Diaz, Stowers, Haskins, Cowser, possibly Mayo since he might not stay at 3B, and also whoever is drafted this year will probably be an OF. I could also see Rhodes becoming relevant but that’s even more speculative than Mayo and the new draftee. 
 

I think 2B, SS, or 3B is where we’ll see a bigger free agent signed in the next couple years. Henderson will hopefully be at either SS or 3B, I really like Mateo but he might be best utilized as a utility guy/pinch runner on a winning team. I want to believe in Vavra, but I think I saw Tony mention he isn’t great with turning double plays? If so, he isn’t a guy to count on realistically. I’d love to see the O’s go after Abrams in SD since he is blocked and they desperately need OF and we’ve got plenty to spare but that’s wishful thinking. 
 

[crowmst3k!]

It's really hard to predict the roster for 2 seasons from now.  

I don't think Vavra stays healthy enough to make a meaningful impact in Baltimore, but I hope I'm wrong.  

Cowser, Henderson, Stowers will probably be a part of it.  

Hays, Rutsch, Mountcastle will probably be a part of it, too.  

But, who knows: other guys may step up, some prospects may flame out.  Trades happen. Free agents can be signed. So many variables.  

I think the Orioles will be in a position to contend in 2024, I just don't know how the roster will look at this juncture. 

 

[Aristotelian]

5 hours ago, oriole said:

I think you can count Kjerstad out and all of the OF on the roster now will be traded. I imagine an OF mix of Diaz, Stowers, Haskins, Cowser, possibly Mayo since he might not stay at 3B, and also whoever is drafted this year will probably be an OF. I could also see Rhodes becoming relevant but that’s even more speculative than Mayo and the new draftee. 
 

I think 2B, SS, or 3B is where we’ll see a bigger free agent signed in the next couple years. Henderson will hopefully be at either SS or 3B, I really like Mateo but he might be best utilized as a utility guy/pinch runner on a winning team. I want to believe in Vavra, but I think I saw Tony mention he isn’t great with turning double plays? If so, he isn’t a guy to count on realistically. I’d love to see the O’s go after Abrams in SD since he is blocked and they desperately need OF and we’ve got plenty to spare but that’s wishful thinking. 
 

I am more inclined to count out Diaz than Kjerstad. If I recall, Vavra was playing some OF last year before getting injured. If he hits he could be on the list for OF. 

If we trade Mullins and Hays I wonder who we get back and what holes they fill. 

 

[oriole]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I am more inclined to count out Diaz than Kjerstad. If I recall, Vavra was playing some OF last year before getting injured. If he hits he could be on the list for OF. 

If we trade Mullins and Hays I wonder who we get back and what holes they fill. 

 

Diaz just needs to stay healthy…same as Kjerstad except Kjerstad has yet to play a game of professional baseball. But I see your point and it’s probably best to just assume neither player has an impact in Baltimore until proven otherwise. Though, if Kjerstad gets on the field and avoids injury for any extended period then I think I’d change my tune a bit. 

 

[glenn__davis]

Not to be overly critical of the OP, but I'd like to banish the phrase "competitive window".  Once that window is open it should stay open.  There's no reason this team shouldn't be able to be continually competitive.  And in fairness I believe Elias has said as much. While I've been frustrated at the pace of the rebuild I appreciate that he says if it's done right you shouldn't have to do it again.

[OriolesMagic83]

15 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I hate threads like this.  You acquire talent and shake it out.  Dont count on any one guy in a specific year.  Players get injured.  Sure things don't pan out.  Some guys take longer to develop.

The problems is, unless the Orioles start participating in a meaningful way in free agency and extending some of their home grown players they won't ever be competitive, they will perpetually be "a year away."

Yes, because the O's are competing with teams that spend tons of money in free agency and have good farm systems.

[sportsfan8703]

The offense part for next year looks pretty straight forward.  Gunnar is going to play SS or 3B. That still leaves two openings. Urias and Mateo can handle those defensively, but the offense is lacking so far from them. 
 

The real concern is the SP. After GR and Hall come up, we don’t have much of anything SP wise. I just don’t think we’re good enough to justify spending money or prospects on SP yet. Maybe next trade deadline at the earliest. It’s looking like another losing year next year. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The offense part for next year looks pretty straight forward.  Gunnar is going to play SS or 3B. That still leaves two openings. Urias and Mateo can handle those defensively, but the offense is lacking so far from them. 
 

The real concern is the SP. After GR and Hall come up, we don’t have much of anything SP wise. I just don’t think we’re good enough to justify spending money or prospects on SP yet. Maybe next trade deadline at the earliest. It’s looking like another losing year next year. 

It’s way too early to say this.   Personally, I’ll worry about what next year might look like when this one is over.   I don’t know yet if this is a 55-win team or a 70-win team.   As of today they’re on pace for 66 wins but I could see things breaking either way from here.   

[foxfield]

The Orioles have lots of talent on board and on the way.  What they don't have is a great team.  I'm ok with that today.  I expect to see Elias start to trade talent for actual pieces. If we could turn some OF depth into a quality SP or two...this team is perhaps only one FA piece from competing. Im not saying there are not other needs than 2 pitchers.  But the obvious 2nd, SS, 3B has potential to be solved in house if one is solved with FA.  

My friend Richard Starkey, from Maine, has a saying.  "Things are getting better, getting better all the time."

[foxfield]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s way too early to say this.   Personally, I’ll worry about what next year might look like when this one is over.   I don’t know yet if this is a 55-win team or a 70-win team.   As of today they’re on pace for 66 wins but I could see things breaking either way from here.   

I agree.  I have hoped for 67 wins getting us halfway to 82 from last years 52.  They are basically on pace to do that today.  That is pretty impressive and I am encouraged that the next few weeks gives them a chance to play some teams who are not front runners.  But the struggles this team has scoring isn't likely to vanish just becuase AR is up.  This team is improved but looks like it is teetering.  An improvement from here could carry it above 70 wins and a breakdown could plunge it back below 60.  

There are reasons to hope.  Talent growing on the farm.  Room for progress from key players like Cedric Mullins or even guys like Urias.  But whether this team breaks to the good or bad, is going to ultimately come down to how it pitches.  There is a long way to go, but so far it is much improved.