Dean Kremer 2022

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I guess we will just have to agree that neither of those balls were hit to shallow CF...Not sure why you are so fired up.  

If you are stoked on Kremer's performance last night, then good for you.  I think he got bailed out by the umpire, a couple GIDPs, and a lot of line outs hit directly to players.  I'm happy they won.  Go O's!

 

But seriously a 96.8 EV lineout @ 340' doesn't' classify as a hard hit/deep line-out in your book?  Tough judge.  

Mateo hit a “shallow”,  “high”, fly to LCF.  It had an exit velocity of 98.5.    Exit velo is nice.  I can still tell which balls are hit solidly, which balls are deep, and which balls are line drives, fly balls, or something in between.  Both of those balls were not true line drives.   When the CF is playing normal depth and doesn’t take a step back, nothing he catches should be called “deep”.   If that’s a deep line drive, what to you call the one that one-hops the wall?   
 

I’m not stoked up.  I just don’t like inaccurate information or opinions being pedaled which are clearly wrong.   Very few hard hit balls against Kremer last night unless you consider routine fly balls hard hit.

Edited August 28, 2022 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The wall helps him.  But if he doesn’t start to miss bats and get more Ks, I think his ceiling is limited.

That said, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a piece at the back of the rotation, after all a 4th or 5th starter isn’t usually a position where we see over the top gaudy stats.

The Os seem to have a collection of 4/5 guys, which is great to see.  It’s why you don’t keep Lyles.  The key is upgrading the top end of the rotation.  

I agree this is the key to next year being a legitimate competitive team all season. I like what Kremer has done and Bradish has been able to dominate mainly with two pitches thanks to his plus slider, but Wells is probably more of a 4th starter type, Watkins is a 5th starter at best and we don't know what Means will look like when he returns.

Saying that, this is Kremer's thread so at the end of the day, I think he's in the opening day 2023 rotation.

[Tony-OH]

54 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Altuve  hit the ball “hard” three times.  When Kyle Tucker has an Evo of 99 mph and the resulting fly ball goes 284 feet, that does not constitute a hard hit ball in my book.   I suppose there are popups with high exit velocities.  Let’s not get ridiculous with this stuff.

Apparently your book does not understand launch angles.

[RZNJ]

Here’s a fangraphs article on pop ups from 2021.  The only ones worth talking about have a minimum Evo of 97 mph.  Some were has high as 104.  So, you can watch the game or you can count routine fly balls and pop ups with high exit velos as the pitcher being lucky or hit hard.  I actually watched the game.  Besides Altuves 2 hits and long fly, everything else was pretty routine and ho hum.  
 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-offered-us-towering-popups-galore/

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Apparently your book does not understand launch angles.

Pretty much my point.  High Evo with a bad launch angle is harmless.  Just quoting exit velos with no context is meaningless.

Edited August 28, 2022 by RZNJ

[emmett16]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Mateo hit a “shallow”,  “high”, fly to LCF.  It had an exit velocity of 98.5.    Exit velo is nice.  I can still tell which balls are hit solidly, which balls are deep, and which balls are line drives, fly balls, or something in between.  Both of those balls were not true line drives.   When the CF is playing normal depth and doesn’t take a step back, nothing he catches should be called “deep”.   If that’s a deep line drive, what to you call the one that one-hops the wall?   
 

I’m not stoked up.  I just don’t like inaccurate information or opinions being pedaled which are clearly wrong.   Very few hard hit balls against Kremer last night unless you consider routine fly balls hard hit.

Who is being disingenuous?  The ball that Tucker hit (after almost decapitating the first base umpire with a foul line drive) would have two or three hopped the wall.  To be very clear, MacKenna took 9 steps back and to his left to catch the ball over his left shoulder.  Was it a routine play?  Yes it was.  Was the ball hit hard and deep?  Yes it was.  Not sure what you are trying to prove here.  

[Tony-OH]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Here’s a fangraphs article on pop ups from 2021.  The only ones worth talking about have a minimum Evo of 97 mph.  Some were has high as 104.  So, you can watch the game or you can count routine fly balls and pop ups with high exit velos as the pitcher being lucky or hit hard.  I actually watched the game.  Besides Altuves 2 hits and long fly, everything else was pretty routine and ho hum.  
 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-offered-us-towering-popups-galore/

Since I love using film room on baseball savant, I decided to show all the contact that had 94 EV or more against Kremer last night so everyone can decide for themselves. Personally, I think you guys are arguing over symantics a bit when it comes to "hard hit". Hard hit is defined by anything velocity hit 94 MPH or harder, but it does not constitute a barrel which is much more important because it includes launch angles.

RZNJ is right in that most of the "hard hits" were into the ground, popped upish, or ended up routine outs outside of Altuves's two and one of Tucker's hard fouls. I think there was another Tucker hit that was pretty hard but right at McKenna.

Kremer's GB% has increased 7.2% and his flyball rate has decreased 10.1% so some of that hard contact is going into areas where there's a better chance of getting the player out. 

Here's all nine hard contacts last night.

https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/kremer-hard-hits

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Who is being disingenuous?  The ball that Tucker hit (after almost decapitating the first base umpire with a foul line drive) would have two or three hopped the wall.  To be very clear, MacKenna took 9 steps back and to his left to catch the ball over his left shoulder.  Was it a routine play?  Yes it was.  Was the ball hit hard and deep?  Yes it was.  Not sure what you are trying to prove here.  

Hahaha.  The CF wall is 400 feet.  The ball was hit 342 feet.  2 or 3 hop the wall?     You’re nuts!

 

The ball was more of a fly than a line drive.  Believe in whatever fantasy you choose.

 

 

Edited August 28, 2022 by RZNJ

[survivedc]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Since I love using film room on baseball savant, I decided to show all the contact that had 94 EV or more against Kremer last night so everyone can decide for themselves. Personally, I think you guys are arguing over symantics a bit when it comes to "hard hit". Hard hit is defined by anything velocity hit 94 MPH or harder, but it does not constitute a barrel which is much more important because it includes launch angles.

RZNJ is right in that most of the "hard hits" were into the ground, popped upish, or ended up routine outs outside of Altuves's two and one of Tucker's hard fouls. I think there was another Tucker hit that was pretty hard but right at McKenna.

Kremer's GB% has increased 7.2% and his flyball rate has decreased 10.1% so some of that hard contact is going into areas where there's a better chance of getting the player out. 

Here's all nine hard contacts last night.

https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/kremer-hard-hits

Off topic but I will say rewatching that Tucker fly ball in the 8th it certainly sounded like Adley’s glove was hit. On the replay it didn’t look like it moved.

[RZNJ]

Just now, survivedc said:

Off topic but I will say rewatching that Tucker fly ball in the 8th it certainly sounded like Adley’s glove was hit. On the replay it didn’t look like it moved.

Of course it was but they couldn’t reverse based on video.  How many CI has he already had?  At least 2 or 3.   The hitter’s reaction told me all I needed to know.   

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, survivedc said:

Off topic but I will say rewatching that Tucker fly ball in the 8th it certainly sounded like Adley’s glove was hit. On the replay it didn’t look like it moved.

When a hitter immediately turns around and looks at the catcher, you know he hit the mitt or a string or something. Adley looked like he got his hand caught in the cookie jar (he would be a bad poker player) but the replay showed no movement of the glove so it probably was just a string or just nicked something. Either way, I doubt it stopped the ball from going much further or harder.

[survivedc]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

When a hitter immediately turns around and looks at the catcher, you know he hit the mitt or a string or something. Adley looked like he got his hand caught in the cookie jar (he would be a bad poker player) but the replay showed no movement of the glove so it probably was just a string or just nicked something. Either way, I doubt it stopped the ball from going much further or harder.

Makeup call for the Mateo CS which I was skeptical of.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, survivedc said:

Makeup call for the Mateo CS which I was skeptical of.

Mateo was out.  Great lucky tag on the foot.

[survivedc]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Mateo was out.  Great lucky tag on the foot.

It was definitely close, just seemed like an non-reversible call either way. Those throws tailing right have worked for the astros so far.

[Orioles4Life21]

Huge challenge for Dean tomorrow. Let’s see if he can step up.