My 2022 Midseason Report Card

[Frobby]

Keeping with tradition, it’s time for my 2022 midseason report card.   All stats cited below are from the 81 game mark, the exact midpoint of the season.   As always, my grades are on a curve and strongly dependent on what I expected from the player coming into the year.   I’ll do the hitters in this post (50 PA minimum), and then the pitchers separately.

Ryan Mountcastle, .277/.315/.496, 14 HR, 40 RBI, 1.5 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR: A-.  Like last year, Mountcastle started slow and came on like gangbusters in June.   Unlike last year, he seems to be sustaining things in July.   His Statcast numbers suggest he’s been unlucky to date, so the best may be yet to come.   His defense is improved, too. 

Trey Mancini, .277/.353/.423, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 1.7 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR: B+.   Mancini has hit well despite being among the unluckiest hitters around.   The new wall has taken away several would be homers, and he’s even run into bad luck in other ballparks.   Still, his numbers are very solid at this point.

Rougned Odor, .206/.263/.399, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 0.3 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: B-.   Here’s where grading on a curve based on expectations really kicks in.   I saw Odor as a 0.0 WAR guy, so even a small bump gets him to B- territory.   And, he’s had a number of big hits, and of course, the veteranosity thing.

Ramon Urias, .224/.275/.385, 6 HR 18 RBI, 1.4 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR: C+.   Another guy bitten by bad luck, Urias also had some injuries.   His offense has been disappointing compared to what I expected.   Defensively, he’s been better at 3B than I expected by a good margin.

Jorge Mateo, .194/.252/.326, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 19 SB, 1.4 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR: B.     Here’s another “grade on the curve” guy.   I never expected him to be an everyday starter.   His defense, which I considered inconsistent last year, has been stellar and he’s a legit Gold Glove candidate if he keeps it up.  So, he has exceeded my overall expectations even though I thought he would be better than this offensively. 

Austin Hays, .271/.327/.459, 11 HR, 45 RBI, 2.4 rWAR, 1.5 fWAR: B+.   Hays would have been an A- for me, but he slumped for a week or so just before the midpoint and I had to knock him down. Still, he’s improved on last year offensively by a solid amount, and while the advanced metrics don’t love his defense, he’s made a lot of great plays and his arm is one of the very best in the league.   I’m glad to have him roaming the larger LF at Camden Yards and whichever corner is more difficult on the road.

Cedric Mullins, .260/.317/.397, 7 HR, 32 RBI, 16 SB, 2.5 rWAR 1.9 fWAR: B.  Converse to Hays, I would have had Mullins in C+ territory a few weeks ago but he’s played great lately on offense and defense.   I’m still a bit disappointed with his offensive numbers, but they are solid for a CF, and he’s another guy who’s in the running for a Gold Glove.

Anthony Santander, .235/.324/.426, 15 HR, 40 RBI, 0.9 rWAR, 0.6: B.  Santander has been a bit up and down.   At times he has shown better plate discipline than in prior seasons, but that comes and goes.   The power numbers have been good, his defense and speed are improved over last year, and perhaps most importantly, he’s stayed off the IL for half a season. 

Robinson Chirinos, .159/.262/.270, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 0.2 rWAR, -0.9 fWAR: C-.   I really wanted to give Chirinos a higher grade.   The pitchers like him and his leadership skills are good.   But he has not hit like he is capable of, and his framing numbers are awful.   Honestly, the intangibles kept him from getting a lower grade.

Tyler Nevin, .185/.302/.258, 2 HR, 14 RBI, -0.1 rWAR, -0.4 fWAR: C-.   I had zero expectations for Nevin, but I really don’t know why he’s on the team.

Adley Rutschman, .215/.282/.392, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 0.8 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR: C+.   So here’s a guy negatively affected by grading on a curve.   Simply put, he came out of the gate cold and hasn’t hit as well as expected – yet.   His defense has been very good and I love his obvious leadership qualities.   I’m fully expecting his year-end grade to be significantly higher. 

Ryan McKenna, .241/.291/.316, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 0.5 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR: B-.  The curve helps McKenna.   His offensive numbers are weak, but way better than last year, so he gets a bump for that.   His defense and baserunning have been good, as expected.

Chris Owings, .107/.254/.143, 0 HR, 0 RBI, -0.5 rWAR, -0.7 fWAR: F.   Do I really need to say more?   It’s a shame he got enough plate appearances to be on this list.

Anthony Bemboom, .115/.207/.212, 1 HR, 1 RBI, -0.2 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR: D.  I wasn’t expecting a whole lot from Bemboom, but that slash line cannot be ignored.   Defensively he did a solid job, I thought.

Overall, the position players have done as well as I expected, and maybe a little better.   The offense started very slowly in April but was solid in May and June.   I'd give the whole offense a B-.

So where do you disagree?   I'll do the pitchers shortly.

 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Frobby: can you explain the framing metrics you mentioned for Chirnos. I was shocked to read they are poor. Do you have a link for this info? Do they track at minor league level?

[Chelsea_Phil]

Wow, I disagree with just about all of your grades, some by a lot.  Mateo a B?  I wish you were my teacher in college.

[mrbig1]

Before the season we were only supposed to win 64 games. So, I would give our team a A+.  Our team reminds me of the 2012 O's. Who came out of nowhere to being a wild card team. I hope Hyde doesn't screw it up.

[mrbig1]

I too was wrong.

[SilverRocket]

My disagreements:

- Mancini: I'm of the sort that doesn't count a player's luck against him. He's hitting better as he ever has in expected numbers and deserves an A.

- Nevin is a D-. I hoped he could at least be a replacement-level fill-in for an injury, but he's been worse.

- Chirinos is a D. He had a .778 OPS last year and .742 career. I expected more than a .530.

Where I agree but a lot of people here probably don't:

- Mateo: B. I never expected this kind of consistency on defense and the bases. Shortstop's a hard position to fill, and if he's the one weak link in the lineup next year while repeating this defense, I can accept it. With three more years of control, I'm going to hope the hitting coaches can do a little work here.

[Aristotelian]

Not really sure what the criteria are but I would give McKenna, Owings, and Nevin F's. No matter how low your expectations, they haven't brought anything. 

I would actually give Odor a B. I just like him. He's always the first guy out of the dugout to join the celebration and went nuts yesterday. Yeah, his batting average sucks but he plays hard and he's productive enough.

I would give Adley a B. His offense is coming on and I like his energy.

[Frobby]

The Pitchers

And now for the pitchers.  I've listed them in order of IP, with a 20 inning minimum.

Jordan Lyles, 92 IP, 4-7, 4.70 ERA, 1.413 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, -0.1 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR: B.   Lyles has done exactly what we brought him here to do.   The most important stat there is 92 IP.   He’s been mediocre, but is soaking up innings and mentoring the younger pitchers.   He’s basically done the same as last year, but in a tougher division.  

Tyler Wells 75.2 IP, 7-4, 3.09 ERA, 1.004 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 2.9 K/BB, 1.9 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR: A.  Going into the year, there were questions whether Wells could reconvert to being a starter.    He’s been our most effective guy out there.   Now the question is, how many innings will they let him pitch?

Bruce Zimmermann, 66.2 IP, 2-5, 5.94 ERA, 1.470 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 4.2 K/BB, -0.9 rWAR, -0.2 fWAR: C.   Zim started well but then faltered badly earning a trip to AAA.   He’s coming back now and I’m hoping for a stronger second half from him. 

Keegan Akin, 46.2 IP, 1-1, 2.31 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 1.3 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR: A-.   Akin was extremely valuable throwing 2+ innings each outing of the first half.  I loved the way he went out and pounded the strike zone.  He faltered just a bit in late June, or I would have given him an A.

Kyle Bradish, 46.1 IP, 1-4, 7.38 ERA, 1.770 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, -1.0 rWAR, 0.0 fWAR: D.   With an ERA over 7, I easily could justify an F, but since he was just making his major league debut, I cut him a break.   I still believe in his arm and his stuff.

Spenser Watkins, 41.0 IP, 1-1, 4.61 ERA, 1.488 WHIP, 5.0 K/9, 1.35 K/BB, -0.2 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR: B.  Talk about doing more with less!   His K/9 and K/BB are both lousy, but somehow he kept the scoreboard under control.   He certainly did better than I expected.   Spent some time on the IL.

Jorge Lopez, 38.1 IP, 3-5, 1.88 ERA, 0.991 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, 13 saves, 4 blown saves, 1.3 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR: B+.   Now here’s one where you really have to think.   His ERA, WHIP and BAA all are outstanding and would warrant an A.   But, his poor performances have all come in high leverage situations.  13 of 17 saves (76%) is a lousy save rate for a closer, and a 3-5 record isn’t stellar, either.  So consider B+ a compromise grade.   Certainly I wasn’t expecting more from him than we got, and probably less.

Dillon Tate, 38.1 IP, 0-3, 2.11 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 4.4 K/BB, 1.1 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR: B+.   Tate’s another guy for whom my expectations were not terribly high, and he has exceeded them.   He still makes me nervous because his pitches have side run that he cannot command, and sometimes that lands him smack in the middle of the strike zone.   But overall, his results have been good.

Bryan Baker 33.1 IP, 3-3, 4.59 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 0.1 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR: B.   He’s been the definition of a mediocre middle reliever.   But you know what?   He was a waiver claim, so he has exceeded expectations.

Dean Kremer 32.2 IP, 2-1, 2.48 ERA, 1.286  WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 0.9 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR: A-.  I wasn’t expecting much from Kremer, and then he got hurt.   But he was real good once he finally made his way back into the rotation.   He seems way more confident and focused this year. I would have given him an A if he’d pitched more games at those numbers.

Felix Bautista 32.1 IP, 3-2, 1.39 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, 1.5 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR: A.   This guy is a beast, hands down the reliever I trust the most.   I was expecting a guy who would have battles with his command, but he’s been pretty much on target, and with his stuff, he doesn’t need to have perfect command to have success.

Joey Krehbiel, 28.0 IP, 3-3, 2.57 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 0.5 rWAR, 0.2: A.   Here’s another guy who I had virtually no expectations for.   He’s been really good and doesn’t shrink in big moments. 

Cionel Perez, 26.1 IP, 4-1, 1.03 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.6 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR: A.   My impression of Perez for the first month is that he was a smaller version of Tanner Scott. I thought his early success in keeping runs off the scoreboard was a bit of a fluky mirage.  But he’s gotten more consistent as the season has progressed.   And you just can’t argue with a 1.03 ERA.

Overall, and remembering that I'm grading compared to expectations, the starters get a B and the bullpen gets an A.   Overall grade for the pitching staff: B+.   I'd gladly take an exact repeat in the second half.   Especially when you consider that we lost John Means and Grayson Rodriguez, the staff has exceeded expectations to a significant degree.

Comments?

[wildcard]

You missed Arauz who I would give a D.

Nevin is here because Urias got hurt and Elias expanded the position players from 12 to 13.  And because they release Owings.

One of the two of them sticks around to backup 3B.   Vavra should get one of them optioned to AAA in the next two weeks.

[Aristotelian]

I would go A- on Lopez. Would be A+++++ except he faltered in the Twins series. B+ is only an increment above Bryan Baker who has been fine but nowhere near the contributor as Jorge. I like all the other pitcher grades. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Frobby: can you explain the framing metrics you mentioned for Chirnos. I was shocked to read they are poor. Do you have a link for this info? Do they track at minor league level?

There are a couple of different sources, but the one most easy to access is Fangraphs.   Here a link to their list of defensive stats for 54 catchers, 200 innings caught minimum (look at the column labeled "FRM").    They have him dead last in framing runs, at -9.5   Adley is 14th, at +2.5, despite not having caught that many games yet.  On a per-game basis he is pretty spectacular. 

Baseball Prospectus has its own framing metric.  They have Chirinos at -10.0, Rutschman at +1.7. 

Now let me just say, when I watch Chirinos, I don't notice that he is a particularly bad framer.   But the stats say otherwise.   

I don't know of publicly available sources that track this at the minor league level.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You missed Arauz who I would give a D.

Nevin is here because Urias got hurt and Elias expanded the position players from 12 to 13.  And because they release Owings.

One of the two of them sticks around to backup 3B.   Vavra should get one of them optioned to AAA in the next two weeks.

I didn't miss Arauz.   He didn't make my 50 PA cutoff.   As to Nevin, I would have sent him down the minute Urias was healthy, but he's still here.   I also like Gutierrez a lot better than Nevin, yet we sent him down after 33 PA, whereas Nevin has had 149 (as of Game 81).   

[Osornot]

Quick read - great analysis.  Whether I completely agree with everything does not matter but I have to give you an A Frobby!

[Chelsea_Phil]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I would go A- on Lopez. Would be A+++++ except he faltered in the Twins series. B+ is only an increment above Bryan Baker who has been fine but nowhere near the contributor as Jorge. I like all the other pitcher grades. 

This

[RZNJ]

Can you do one on the Hangout Posters?  Mid season report card.   Minimum 250 posts.    That would be fun but keep me out of it since it was my idea.