A Pennant Race and a Playoff Berth should be the Goal for the 2022 O's

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Elias will not Deviate from the plan to chase a final wild card slot where your chances of winning the World Series is very low. It’s Fools gold

The O's are 2 behind the Jays and Mariners, 3 behind the Rays,  4 1/2 behind the Red Sox with two and half months to go in the season.  There is no reason to believe the O's are only going for the last playoff spot.

Note: The Rays just lost Wander Franco for 5-8 weeks.

I don't think waiting until the off season to trade players is deviating from Elias' plan.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's are 2 behind the Jays and Mariners, 3 behind the Rays,  4 1/2 behind the Red Sox with two and half months to go in the season.  There is no reason to believe the O's are only going for the last playoff spot.

Note: The Rays just lost Wander Franco of the rest of the season.

I don't think waiting until the off season to trade players is deviating from Elias' plan.

Franco is out 5-8 weeks

[foxfield]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

A little dramatic and, of course, not close to what I said.  But why let that stand in the way of a good rant.

Irrationally wreak the foundation of the rebuild?  Please.   I didn't say Elias should not trade Mancini and/or Santander.   I just said wait until the off season.   Sign Mancini  and look at what is offered in the off season.  I fail to see how that wreaks the rebuild.

I have been watching MLB for over 60 years and being two games out of the playoffs in July is being in the pennant race.  Has always been that way and will probably always be that way.   Being 18 games out of the division lost its meaning when MLB installed the wild card system.  

If the O's win a wild card spot they have a chance to win the pennant.  They don't have to win the division to win the pennant.  They have to win the playoffs to win the pennant.   So don't confuse winning the division with winning the pennant.

Never the less, being in a pennant race and then hopefully playing in the playoffs is the best thing for a young team.   Its great experience on how to do it again and learning what it takes to win the World Series.

I dont know what I misunderstood.  And we have been watching baseball for along time together.  I totally agree that the playoffs would be great.  I am simply saying, going from 0.0 to 8% is not enough change to change the plan.  I am comfortable with you or anyone else that disagrees....and I will hoot and holler to beat the band if the Orioles make the playoffs.  But I am not going to be upset if/when guys are traded.  

I will expect return that helps the club both now and later...but the only reason to not trade Mancini, Santander or Tate is the return isn't good enough. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

The O's are 2 behind the Jays and Mariners, 3 behind the Rays,  4 1/2 behind the Red Sox with two and half months to go in the season.  There is no reason to believe the O's are only going for the last playoff spot.

Note: The Rays just lost Wander Franco of the rest of the season.

I don't think waiting until the off season to trade players is deviating from Elias' plan.

Trey reaches free agency ….your right about the rest. But we need to clear spots for Stowers and the infielders ready at AAA. And it would be beyond stupid to not sell high on relievers if you have the opportunity. Felix Bautista is the next closer here IMO and Lopez is streaky. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

I dont know what I misunderstood.  And we have been watching baseball for along time together.  I totally agree that the playoffs would be great.  I am simply saying, going from 0.0 to 8% is not enough change to change the plan.  I am comfortable with you or anyone else that disagrees....and I will hoot and holler to beat the band if the Orioles make the playoffs.  But I am not going to be upset if/when guys are traded.  

I will expect return that helps the club both now and later...but the only reason to not trade Mancini, Santander or Tate is the return isn't good enough. 

I think trading away established, productive players hurts now but if the trade is a good could help in the future. Replacing Mancini and Santander who you kind of know what you are going to get with Stowers and Vavra is  increasing the risk of   non productivity a great deal.

 So if Elias does just that he is probably giving up on  the pennant race this year.   And he does not have to if he delays this transition.  Instead has it happen over the off season and next season  when there is more time to make the adjustments necessary.

Trading Tate by the deadline leaves a hole this year in the pen.   Give Holt and Elias  an  off season and a spring training and they can develop another Tate.

So right now we have a team that is surging.  They probably good 5-5 versus the Rays and Yanks but then they surge again versus the Reds, Rangers and Pirates.

Since April 30th the O's look like they can compete and maybe even win more than they lose vs the Jays, Rays and Red Sox.   And if the O's can use Stowers, Vavra, Gunnar and Westburg as supplements instead of replacements the depth increases and  the picture for this season is much better.

[maybenxtyr]

32 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think trading away established, productive players hurts now but if the trade is a good could help in the future. Replacing Mancini and Santander who you kind of know what you are going to get with Stowers and Vavra is  increasing the risk of   non productivity a great deal.

 So if Elias does just that he is probably giving up on  the pennant race this year.   And he does not have to if he delays this transition.  Instead has it happen over the off season and next season  when there is more time to make the adjustments necessary.

Trading Tate by the deadline leaves a hole this year in the pen.   Give Holt and Elias  an  off season and a spring training and they can develop another Tate.

So right now we have a team that is surging.  They probably good 5-5 versus the Rays and Yanks but then they surge again versus the Reds, Rangers and Pirates.

Since April 30th the O's look like they can compete and maybe even win more than they lose vs the Jays, Rays and Red Sox.   And if the O's can use Stowers, Vavra, Gunnar and Westburg as supplements instead of replacements the depth increases and  the picture for this season is much better.

There's no pennant race. A slim chance at a WC, not much else. 

 

The front office has not been willing to bring guys up to help the team, why would they not make trades? One bad week away from this not even being a discussion. Just enjoy it and ride it out.

[ShoelesJoe]

Under no circumstances should Elias sacrifice future (2023 to 3030) wins for present day wins hoping to snag a WC slot this season. Continue to build the farm, continue to acquire prospects and younger players as a foundation for having good to great teams going forward. I'd rather have a 15% or 20% chance at titles over the next decade than a .01% chance at a title this year. 

[jrobb21613]

We have a lot of depth in the outfield. Is Kjherstad, Cowser and Stowers off the table?

What about Mayo? 
 

If a team wanted any of those guys in return for giving us a quality sp with a couple years of control?

[DrungoHazewood]

6 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

We have a lot of depth in the outfield. Is Kjherstad, Cowser and Stowers off the table?

What about Mayo? 
 

If a team wanted any of those guys in return for giving us a quality sp with a couple years of control?

I don't really think it's a good idea to trade six years of what's likely at least a starting outfielder for a couple years of a pitcher who'll give the O's ~300 innings for $20M+. Not when they're still 20 games behind the Yankees. That's the kind of trade you entertain when you need a piece to put you over the top.  Not when you're a few months removed from "I don't think this rebuild is ever going to end."

[DrungoHazewood]

9 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

There's no pennant race. A slim chance at a WC, not much else. 

Wildcards sometimes win the Series.  But we should be realistic.  The O's are sitting on 8% playoff odds.  On day one of the playoffs they'd have something like a 2-3% chance of winning the Series, as they would have to go through four rounds where they'd be underdogs in each.  Combining probabilities they Orioles have about a 0.2% chance of winning the Series right now.  I'm guessing Fangraphs and others rounds that off to zero.

That's what we're talking about.  Trading tangible future assets for a 2022 lottery ticket.

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Wildcards sometimes win the Series.  But we should be realistic.  The O's are sitting on 8% playoff odds.  On day one of the playoffs they'd have something like a 2-3% chance of winning the Series, as they would have to go through four rounds where they'd be underdogs in each.  Combining probabilities they Orioles have about a 0.2% chance of winning the Series right now.  I'm guessing Fangraphs and others rounds that off to zero.

That's what we're talking about.  Trading tangible future assets for a 2022 lottery ticket.

OK,  What is the chance the O's win the World Series in any  of the next 10 years?

They have not won the WS is almost 40 years.

[maybenxtyr]

16 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Wildcards sometimes win the Series.  But we should be realistic.  The O's are sitting on 8% playoff odds.  On day one of the playoffs they'd have something like a 2-3% chance of winning the Series, as they would have to go through four rounds where they'd be underdogs in each.  Combining probabilities they Orioles have about a 0.2% chance of winning the Series right now.  I'm guessing Fangraphs and others rounds that off to zero.

That's what we're talking about.  Trading tangible future assets for a 2022 lottery ticket.

I'm fully aware of that. They may surprise everyone and earn a WC spot...not likely considering that they are playing better baseball than the rest of the league at the moment. 

 

The plan should stay the same. Prepare for 2023.

[Bahama O's Fan]

7 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Under no circumstances should Elias sacrifice future (2023 to 3030) wins for present day wins hoping to snag a WC slot this season. Continue to build the farm, continue to acquire prospects and younger players as a foundation for having good to great teams going forward. I'd rather have a 15% or 20% chance at titles over the next decade than a .01% chance at a title this year. 

Thinking really LONG term huh?

[TommyPickles]

There is quite a bit of statistical analysis showing that MLB's playoffs are a crapshoot. A wildcard team or high seed has a dramatically higher chance of becoming champions, compared to a sport like hockey or basketball.

The 2019 Nationals were a (mediocre) wild card team that went on to win the World Series.

Before finishing the regular season 9-1, very few people would have even considered them one of the top 10 teams in baseball. Even with that hot finish, they only had the 8th or 9th best record. 

Not saying we should bet the farm on 2022, but if the O's make it as a wildcard team, they absolutely have a shot at the whole thing.

[tntoriole]

I trust in the plan.   If you get good offers you trade the parts mentioned… we are not a playoff team this year.